News Behind the News - The Scoop on the Condition of Oahu's Roads

Half hour TV interview with Malia Zimmerman.

Electric Vehicles Are Here to Stay. In Moderate Numbers.

The MIT Review titles the infographic below: Electric Vehicles are Here to Stay.

Yes, but the case for them is not particularly strong and their market penetration will be small for a very long time, for two big reasons.  One is EV's marginal environmental benefit. The infographic clearly shows that the big improvement comes when a gasoline-powered vehicle is converted to hybrid: Its emissions drop from 0.87 pounds of CO2 per mile to 0.57 pounds per mile. All the fuss to get to EV cuts CO2 down only to 0.54 pounds per mile (and probably leaves a much bigger problem with battery recycling at the end.) In addition this estimate does not likely account for all the charging infrastructure that is being installed from scratch.

The second reason is the affordable price of fuel, gasoline in particular. It will be priced at around $4 per gallon for a long time thanks to major forces that work against major price increases, such as:

1. Hydraulic fracturing of fracking for natural gas extraction, which curbs the demand for oil by vast amounts. (In 2000 fracking yielded 1% of the natural gas production in the US. In 2010 it yielded 20% of the production. A breakneck acceleration in such a capital intensive industry thanks to my fellow Greek and father of fracking George Phydias Mitchell.)
2. Sustained oil prices in the $50 to $100 per barrel make expensive explorations affordable, so a healthy supply of oil will be available to satiate the increasing demands of the developing world.
3. Substantially decreased demand for gasoline due to the popularity of high mpg vehicles (CAFE requirements and sales success of hybrids and plug-in hybrids; can't buy a Hummer anymore.)
4. Less travel due to persistent high unemployment and mega economic downers such as debt, deficit, bankrupt cities and countries, and looming pension and health care social costs in the US.
5. Continued public and private investment in renewable sources of energy.

Light-Rail to Nowhere: Honolulu, Hawaii's Train Boondoggle

The Reason Foundation provides succinct coverage of Honolulu rail. It is, of course, about politics, development and money. Lots of money. Only the gullible and the railigious believe that heavy rail from the middle of ag land to a shopping center will have any traffic relief.

Panos Prevedouros, one of the state's leading transportation experts, says the rail plan that the feds approved will siphon off state funding for the area's bus system. The project's own report, which Prevedouros says is filled with overly optimistic estimates of rail ridership, still shows that Honolulu's congestion will be worse in the future with rail. “The point of doing any cost effectiveness type of analysis is out of the window,” says Panos, “the benefits are not there.”

The Ninth Circuit Court of Appeals has ordered an expedited hearing for the federal rail lawsuit on August 15th.

Watch the well-made 8 minute video by Sharif Matar.

Honolulu 1990 to 2010 Trends: What Do They Mean for the Next 20 Years?

Important trends for Honolulu and Hawaii over the past 20 years and what this means for the next 20 years is explained in this installment of my O'lelo show PANOS 2050: Solutions for a Sustainable Hawaii.

This subject was also covered earlier this year: Hawaii Over The Past 20 Years: Minimal Change, Minimal Growth. What Should Hawaii Plan For?

A Terrible Week for Rail

Paris, France
French Wreck Reveals Hidden Danger in Its Vaunted Train System

Washington, DC, USA
Obama Administration Puts Brakes on XpressWest High-Speed Rail Project
This is the California-Nevada High Speed Rail proposal.

Honolulu, HI, USA

Federal Judge slaps HART hard by revealing profound contradictions and stupidity. Excerpts from Judge Mollway's letter to HART below.

"On behalf of the United States District Court for the District of Hawaii, I submit that the Draft Supplemental EIS fails to give adequate consideration to the Beretania Street Tunnel Alternative.

Remarkably, the Project's proposed rail route fails to run along "the highly
congested east-west transportation corridor between Kapolei and UH Manoa," the very
corridor expressly identified as the route the Project is intended to serve.

The EIS unrealistically posits that a UH student, after riding the rail to Ala Moana, can transfer to a bus to get to the UH campus and, even including the time spent getting to the bus boarding area and waiting for the bus, arrive within 9 minutes.

• Waianae to UH Manoa via Beretania Street Tunnel: 84 minutes
• Current Route of the Project: 93 minutes"

Obviously judge Mollaway can do better math than HART's hired un-professionals. Even today during a normal school day I would have to dart in traffic in my sporty Miata in the rush hour to go from Ala Moana Center to the UH-Manoa were I work, in nine minutes. The city bus is no Miata and the likely time of the bus is well over 15 minutes. So the judge's comparison needs to be updated as follows:

• Waianae to UH Manoa via Beretania Street Tunnel: 84 minutes
• Current Route of the Project: 100 minutes

Clearly the United States District Court for the District of Hawaii has a point.


North American urban transit security (July 11 headlines)

NY: Subway Study Eyes Dispersal of Chemical Weapons Subway riders can expect to see in stations Tuesday the installation of special equipment scientists will use as part of an experiment to see how... More » ON: Toronto Storm Causes Chaos Throughout City and on Train MO: Woman Upset Over a Seat Splashes Gasoline on Metro Bus Passengers MA: Man Struck, Killed by Train IL: Man Dies After Falling on Third Rail Don't Text and Walk: Pedestrians Step in Front of Trains PA: Nude Man Shot During Berserk Rampage

ON: All GO Transit Riders Rescued From Flooded Train: Toronto Police Hundreds of passengers that were stranded on a flooded GO Transit rush-hour train following heavy rain have been rescued, Toronto police said early Tuesday morning.

WI: Agitated Drunken Man Assaults 3 on County Bus: Police BC: Transit Police Warn of e-device Thefts in City MA: Transit Police Search for Man Accused of Spitting on Driver

Brief Insight on the Kakaako Development and Honolulu's Trifecta of Failures

Up to 5,000 new apartment and condominium units are being planned by the HCDA in Kakaako, Honolulu. This section of Honolulu is already the most traveled and congested. What would be the likely impact of such concentrated, high density development?

In the field of transportation planning and engineering we rely on the Trip Generation Manual produced by the Institute of Transportation Engineers headquartered in Washington, D.C. I have the 8th edition issued in 2008. 

It says that High Rise Apartments (land use 222) generate 0.30 trips per unit during the peak hour between 7 and 9 AM. The peak period in Kaka'ako is roughly the same. Of these trips, 75% are outbound (leaving the building) and 25% are inbound. Given that Kakaako is at a location near the center of the city and Waikiki, quite a few of these trips will be on foot, bike or bus. So instead of assuming that 90%-95% of the trips will be by auto, let's assume that 80% of the trips will be by auto.

If 5,000 new units were occupied in Kaka'ako "tomorrow", then there would be: 

5,000 x 0.30 x 0.75 x 0.80 = 900 new vehicle trips during the morning peak hour

If we stack all of them on Kapiolani Blvd., this estimate means that an exclusive new lane would be needed just to maintain similar congestion conditions as now. But there is no room for lane additions so the traffic impact will be immense.

This is similar to the situation prevailing today: Because of sewer work, contraflow on Kapiolani Blvd. was not in effect until past McCully St. (town-bound from Kaimuki) so it took me three cycles to go past the Kapiolani/Date traffic light. Over five minutes to traverse one major intersection! 

As I have frequently mentioned, Honolulu is the most lane deficient city of about one million people in the US (per capita, it is worse than LA, Chicago, etc.) Adding more density will cause the central road network to seize. It already does when there is major rainfall or a couple of typically uncoordinated lane closures on major streets.

The "Establishment" supported and thrived with the quick profiteering from the Second City. Second City profit-making has subsided due to the lack of road capacity and it will collapse with the mess of 10+ years of rail construction due to lane closures. After destroying the Ewa Plains, and causing major infrastructure liabilities, now it is time for the Establishment to come back and densify Kakaako and Kalihi. 

A dense urban ribbon between Waikiki and the airport should have been the original plan instead of the Second City 22 miles away from Waikiki. That plan should have come with high rises, urban underpasses, large underground parking, and possibly a 10-mile underground metro from Waikiki to Airport and perhaps to Aloha Stadium. The plan should have had new utility lines installed in secondary streets such as Waimanu Rd. and Queen St. instead of under major arterial streets such as Ala Moana and Kapiolani Boulevards. 

If you recall, since 1995 Kapiolani Blvd. has been a continuous construction zone. Now Ala Moana Blvd. is another work zone. As long as main utilities are under them, labe closures will never stop and pavement will be a patchwork. 

With the 

1. Second City/Ewa Development Plan, 
2. The Rail and,
3. The HCDA/Kakaako Development 

the Establishment has created the ultimate trifecta of (predictable) failures at a time when Honolulu can least afford to make mistakes and start new massive liabilities while the massive liabilities of

• Sewer EPA consent decree
• One water main break a day
• The worst pavement condition in the last 30 years
• Public employee pension unfunded liability
• Public employee health coverage unfunded liability

are here and 100% real.