2004: Newly elected mayor Hannemann asserts that 34 miles of
rail will cost $2.7 Billion.
Mid-2006: Hannemann switches to the Minimum Operating
Segment: 20 miles will cost about $3 B.
Late-2006: Alternatives Analysis sets the cost at $4.6 B
(this figure and all following figures include contingency funds).
Spring 2008: Hawaii legislature approves a 0.5% tack-on to
Hawaii’s GET tax that applies to every transaction. Against expectations,
Republican Governor Linda Lingle opted to save her political career and let the
rail tax stand without a veto. The rail is expected to generate about $2 B. The
gravy train has thus been established.
Summer 2008: Mayor Hannemann up for reelection gives a
helicopter ride to Senator Oberstar who then says that the Feds will give
Honolulu $900 M. Hannemann declares that “the train has left the station.”
2008: The author runs against Hannemann in a three way ray,
garners 17% of the vote, and forces Hannemann to the general election which he
won. The public is deluged with city, union, Hannemann campaign and
FTA-approved “Light Rail” commercials, emails and letters, and a 50.6% “yes to
rail” is obtained. Hannemann’s was clearly an rail project financed campaign.
2009: Rail’s budget cannot pass scrutiny – President pro tempore Senator Inouye of Hawaii joins
the rail party. FTA is strong-armed to pay $1.55 B.
2010: Four years after the Alternatives Analysis was
completed, and three years after the start of tax collection, the project has
no environmental clearance, no cultural resources clearance and no robust
budget. During the elections, a referendum to create HART is approved. Hannemann
quits, runs for governor and loses. A three way race for the remaining term for
mayor among Carlyle, Caldwell and the author is won by city prosecutor
Carlisle.
2010: The cost is up to $5.4 Billion not counting the
expensive Airport Runway proximity error; $150 M realignment is necessary to
avoid coming near a major runway. Nobody is punished for this error that HDOT
had informed the city in advance. Costs were “absorbed” by contingencies.
2010: Outgoing Governor Linda Lingle releases an independent
financial analysis of the project by IMG and Thomas Rubin which concluded that
construction cost will likely be more than the $5.4 B projection, ridership
projections were both very high and would require passenger loads significantly
higher than that of any U.S. transit operator, future rail renewal and
replacement costs were ignored, operating subsidies were significantly understated,
and many projected revenues were significantly overstated. Mayor Carlisle dismissed the report as “a
product of rail opponents.”
2011: Mayor Carlisle performs a “ceremonial groundbreaking”
but only utility relocation occurs afterwards. The project still aims for a
2019 completion.
2011: Mayor Carlisle claims a steel price reduction due to
the slowing of the Chinese economy and the project’s budget drops to $5.17 B.
However, at this point the budget language has changed and the “unallocated
contingency” is only about $300 M. FFGA is signed at year’s end.
2012: Both a NEPA and a Hawaiian burial ground desecration
lawsuit are filed, the former in Federal court the latter in State court. Only
the second lawsuit causes construction restrictions in areas where
archeological surveys had not been done.
2012: Construction accelerates at the casting yard and the
first piers appear in the middle of prime agricultural land. The first four
miles of the project are on agricultural land. Carlisle loses in the primary.
Two Democrats, Kirk Caldwell (pro rail) wins the mayor race over past governor
Ben Cayetano (anti rail.) Although some frame it as another victory for the
rail project, Cayetano’s battles with unions during his eight years in the
governor’s office were a major cause for his loss.
Mid-2014: 9th Circuit court appeal ends
unsuccessfully for the plaintiffs of a NEPA-based suit.
December 2014: HART reveals a $910 projected deficit and
asks and gets for more tax monies.
December 2015: HART proposes to open 10 miles of rail service
in 2018.
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