Honolulu Driverless Car Poll 2017

Given how little is actually known about driverless cars, more so in Hawaii where there are no autonomous vehicle pilots or any major funded research, it is surprising that so many newspaper subscribers who answered the poll have a specific opinion.... 41% opposed; problematic, 32% very positive; great potential, and 27% mixed.

I'd speculate that this is almost purely based on information about Teslas. East Honolulu probably has more Teslas than any other comparable high income community in the US.

At the present time, the correct answer is: Problematic 100% and Great potential 100%.

Super-long Commutes in Hawaii?

Recently I received this question from a The Pew Charitable Trusts investigating journalist: "I noticed that Hawaii had a big increase – an almost 40% in increase in commutes of 90 minutes or more between 2010 and 2015 (American Community Survey) – I saw you quoted in a business journal on a similar issue, how driving is on the upswing in Hawaii, and wondered if you could comment on why this would be a bigger issue now in Hawaii, and growing so fast."

I replied as follows:

Tourists and tourism jobs generate a lot of travel.  In Hawaii tourism roughly accounts for one third of the local economy. Travel was down mostly due to the recession... in 2008-2010 tourism and all related sectors of the economy were hit hard; see linked report for some numbers:  A major recovery was observed in 2015-2016 and this came with a strong growth in travel.

Another large contributor was gas price. In 2010 gas prices jumped from approximately $3.50 to $4.50 (in Hawaii). Sharp increases in trip cost resulted in sharp changes in trip making (curtailed trips and more car pooling). The price in 2015 was "normal" at $3.25 or under. See link.

Indeed, hotel pay is modest and these workers tend to live far from Waikiki and downtown Honolulu (in more affordable, remote towns) which come with 75+ minute commutes.

The 90 minute cutoff creates a "definitional" problem by itself.  During recession times, traffic is lighter and fewer trips take 90+ minutes, even from far out locales. When the economy is booming and traffic is heavy, even suburbs that are closer to Waikiki will experience occasional 90+ minute trips, thus in good times the 90+ count goes up much more.

Surprising Downward Trends

What do golf, convertible cars, crime, American journalists and infant mortality have in common?
The answer is in my recent article in the Honolulu Civil Beat.

The article describes some downtrends. Our world is obsessed with up and more, whereas down and less are equally important but rarely discussed...unless there is a major recession or a downed aircraft!

TECHNOLOGY and INNOVATION Survey -- The Economist and Hawaii Results

I like people, global and local issues, and numbers ... so I present a mini-series of surveys on major issues which have been debated at The Economist. Obviously the results only represent people with at least a basic level of computer and Internet savvy. However, the results may be sufficiently indicative because most questions along with the careful wording of questions lead to a straightforward answer: Agree, Disagree or Do Not Know. The Economist has received a few thousand responses to each of their questions. I post results only when Hawaii surveys exceed 100 responses.

TECHNOLOGY Results (click to take the survey, part 1, and technology survey part 2.)

The results are summarized in the Table and discussed below.


The original debate questions in The Economist address various issues relating to technology. Ten questions were selected and International and Hawaii responses are compared.

For the first four issues, both The Economist and Hawaii respondents agree. For the next two issues either International or Hawaii responses are neutral, and for the last four issues the opinions are clearly opposite.

Both Hawaii (80%) and international response (62%) disagrees with the position that genetically modified crops and sustainable agriculture are complementary. Both agree that the Internet is making journalism better and that we are now in a new tech bubble. More international respondents (61%) than Hawaii respondents (56%) agreed that social networking technologies will bring positive changes to education.

Economist respondents want NASA to send astronauts to the moon but Hawaii is clearly ambivalent on this. Hawaii respondents believe that innovation works best when government does least but The Economist habitual government subsidy readers overwhelmingly place government at the center of innovation (84%). It does not take a genius to know who's right. Just think about the last time that a PC, smartphone or search engine was invented in Europe...

Hawaii respondents clearly agree (81%) that if the promise of technology is to simplify our lives it is failing, but The Economist respondents mildly (53%) believe that technology has simplified our lives. Technology has simplified my life. As an engineer and researcher, the Internet and digital scholar tools have cut down by annual time spent at the university library from 1 to 2 weeks a year in the late 1980s to less than two hours per year after 2000.

Exact opposite responses to the argument that the continuing introduction of new technologies and new media adds little to the quality of education: 56% of international respondents disagree and 57% of Hawaii respondents agree. In other words, Hawaii respondents believe that technology doesn't do much for education. Maybe that's a generic response because public education in Hawaii produces poor outcomes. Or, perhaps in Hawaii we buy a lot of technology for schools but don't use it in an effective and exciting manner. (However, that's not the case at Liholiho Elementary that my 5th grader attends since kindergarten.)

Underutilized technology is certainly the case with intelligent transportation systems (ITS) on our highways. Hawaii has spent upwards of $500 million on ITS and signal infrastructure since 2000. Yet traffic signals still operate mostly like Christmas lights and, like Chicago in the 1970s, we get our traffic conditions from ... Jason Josuda on FM radio. In 1994 I bought a Saab 900 with a Radio Data System. The car could show on the dash messages about road conditions. It was disabled for the US and if I still had it, it could be useless in Hawaii in 2012.

Hawaii respondents got the next one right: 65% agree that we're on a post-PC era, and that smartphones and tablets will soon dominate. No question that this will be so by 2020 in most of the US. Only 28% of international respondents agreed to this. Much lower disposable income (due to lower incomes and higher taxes) do not allow Europeans to change technology items frequently.

Finally from President Obama, to Linda Lingle and many luminaries in the between, math and science education is the best way to stimulate future innovation. Correctly, 74% of international respondents agreed but only 33% of Hawaii respondents agree. Sun, surf and R&R does not jibe with STEM (science, technology, engineering and math!)

Innovations We Can't Live Without: US and Hawaii

Earlier this year Consumer Reports published a small survey in a sidebar answering this question: Which of these innovations of the past few decades would be hardest to live without?

I used my AIKEA FOR HONOLULU newsletter and Facebook page to invite people to respond to an identical survey and make two choices among these innovations: Bank ATM – Broadband (fast) Internet service – Cable or satellite TV – Cell phone – Digital camera – GPS – Home computer – Microwave oven – Smart phone. The survey is still live; feel free to take it if you haven't done so.

The results are summarized below. They are listed from high to low according to their Hawaii share. For six out of nine innovations, the USA and Hawaii results are very similar, i.e., within two percentage points (green cells.) However, the other three reveal a different pattern:

• USA folks are more focused on food and ready-to-eat meals. They chose the microwave oven as their top innovation!
• Hawaii folks are more focused on technology with personal computers and fast Internet connections being their top two choices.

We have to be cautious with this outcome because Hawaii respondents were contacted by email and Internet social media, thus my survey touched only a computer savvy Hawaii population sample. However, both surveys agree that four innovations based on Intelligent Technology (IT), namely PC, digital TV, Internet and cell phones get the lion's share of the responses: 58% in the Consumer Reports USA survey, and 74% in my limited, computer-based Hawaii survey.

Opposition to Honolulu Rail Grows to 55%

February 12, 2012 poll by HawaiiNewsNow and Honolulu Advertiser: 53% oppose rail



March 5, 2012 poll by Civil Beat: 55% oppose rail

Ban the Ban of Plastic Bags

Dear Council Members,

I conducted a poll on the proposal on banning plastic bags. My list of emails is large and diverse and I chose a random sample of 600 recipients to receive the survey link. Still, this is not a scientific survey. However, it is indicative that after 50 responses the results did not change by more than 2%. In other words, the public' sentiment is quite clear.

The poll results screen capture below reflects 112 responses.


Only 25% answered yes to the statement Plastic bags are a serious threat to our environment.

John Pritchett's cartoon at the very bottom concludes this presentation.

I'd say that you may safely proceed with bigger and better things.

Aloha,
Panos

ECONOMY Survey -- The Economist and Hawaii Results

I like people, global and local issues, and numbers ... so I present a mini-series of surveys on major issues which have been debated at The Economist. Obviously the results only represent people with at least a basic level of computer and Internet savvy. However, the results may be sufficiently indicative because most questions along with the careful wording of questions lead to a straightforward answer: Agree, Disagree or Do Not Know. The Economist has received a few thousand responses to each of their questions. I post results only when Hawaii surveys exceed 100 responses.

ECONOMY Survey Results (click to take the survey, part 1, and economy survey part 2.)

The results are summarized in the Table and discussed below.


The first three issues shown in the table results in solid agreement for both Economist and Hawaii respondents.

• Brand AMERICA will regain its shine, although some may question whether brand AMERICA has lost its shine in the first place.
  
• People do not have much faith in corporations to take measures towards sustainability. Although one might argue that it is people who force corporations to make "cheap" choices since they demand inexpensive products. You can't run an operation on solar power at current costs and expect to have a cost similar to a competitor using coal or hydro-electric power.
• 75% of both Economist and Hawaii respondents agree that workers do not get enough sleep. This has important implication on weight gain, diabetes, productivity at work, safety in traffic and personal relations. How much of this is due to electronic gaming and social media engagement is an open question.

The next four issues show a solid disagreement between Economist and Hawaii respondents.

• Almost 75% believe that China's currency won't be a reserve currency any time soon. Currently the basket of reserve currencies include the US Dollar, the Euro and the British Pound but dollar super dominated the basket accounting for 890-100% of most reserve applications.
• A woman's place is at work is a controversial statement; it is the only statement for which I received complaining emails. Recall that The Economist has developed all these statements. Economist respondents give a slim margin of disagreement to this, but two thirds of Hawaii respondents do not agree that a woman's place is at work.
• Almost 75% believe that senior company executives are not worth what they are paid. No surprise here and both the perception of the respondents and the reality are so, in my opinion.
• The clear majority of the respondents do not agree that sustainable development is unsustainable. In other words, they believe that we can continue to develop but in a sustainable, Earth-friendly manner. Sure, but only up to a point. There will likely be too many challenges to overcome one Earth's population approaches 10 billion people. This bring up the divisive issue of population. (See below.)
  

The remaining four issues reveal opposing views between Economist and Hawaii responses.

• 80% of Economist responses believe that the world would be better off with fewer people, but only 42% of "spirit of aloha" Hawaii respondents think so. Are we seeing the result of Western selfish culture and Hawaii's more accepting multi-ethnic culture?
• Who should pay for higher education? Almost 80% of socialist-minded European respondents of the Economist want the state to pay. Free market minded Hawaii respondents make this an individual pocket-book and career choice.
• Economist respondents come from industrial nations so it's no surprise that 78% feel that an economy cannot succeed without a big manufacturing base. In Hawaii with its sparse and light industrial base the response is about 50-50.
• Again socialist-minded European respondents are split about 50-50 on the effect of government regulation of business finance, but Hawaii respondents are resoundingly against multi-billion bailouts and the ropes (not strings) that come attached to them.

Chrysler's Super Bowl Ad with Clint Eastwood

Half Time in America: Chrysler's 2-minute long TV commercial with Clint Eastwood during the 46th Super Bowl was a strong political statement. It was likely washed down too quickly with beer, pizza and nachos, but it did generate a lot of media coverage.

What did Clint's message say to people in Hawaii? My small sample survey reveals the following:

78% of the respondents agree that Clint is talking about American patriotism, Detroit rebounding, union jobs or all of these.

The majority opinion is that this commercial has nothing to do with Chrysler cars or cars in general, but 43% think that Clint is also talking about the importance of the car industry for America. See details below.


75% of the respondents feel that Clint is raising an alarm about the condition of our country, the upcoming elections and the future of America or all of these.

Clint himself stated that he is not in agreement with the president's policies but he did not think that this commercial was about Obama. 43% of Hawaii respondents agree, but 49% responded that the ad support Obama policies. Only 8% responded that the ad goes against Obama policies. See details below.



Kudos to Chrysler for developing a thought provoking ad which some have labelled as a payback to Obama administration for arranging the auto industry bailouts.

Privacy Issues Survey -- The Economist and Hawaii Results

I like people, global and local issues, and numbers ... so I present a mini-series of surveys on major issues which have been debated at The Economist. I recommend that you visit their site and learn more if the issue presented is of interest to you.

I selected blocks of questions on Privacy, Economy, Technology, Energy and U.S. Politics. I used my several thousand contacts and Internet friends as well as SurveyMonkey to conduct surveys and solicit responses from Hawaii. Both my and The Economist surveys are based on "self selected" respondents so the results may provide trends or indications but they are not scientific.

Obviously the results only represent people with at least a basic level of computer and Internet savvy. However, the results may be sufficiently indicative because most questions along with the careful wording of questions lead to straightforward answer: Agree, Disagree or Do Not Know. The Economist has received a few thousand responses to each of their questions. I post results only when Hawaii surveys exceed 100 responses.

Privacy Issues Survey (click to take the survey)

I grouped four of The Economist questions into a privacy issues survey, as follows:

• DNA sequence is a person's business, and nobody else's.
• Loss of privacy from digitizing health care will be more than compensated by increased efficiency.
• Cloud computing can't be trusted.
• Government must do far more to protect online privacy.

The results are summarized below.


The immediate observation is that Hawaii responses are more agreeable than The Economist responses. The graph shows that both Hawaii and The Economist responses trend in the same way. By a large margin, Hawaii respondents prefer high levels of privacy for a person's DNA and for online transactions.