2004: Rail will cost $2.7 Billion and 1% GET charge is needed.
2005: OK fine, 0.5% tax will do it – we’ll get $450 Million from the FTA.
2006: Rats! The Alternatives Analysis had to spoil it. Rail will cost $4.6 Billion.
2006: Rats! Cliff Slater noticed that the 2000 Bus Rapid Transit also planned by Parsons Brinkerhoff for the Harris administration had higher projected ridership than rail. So... with rail we pay 3 times more to get less.
2006: City will have Feds give it as much as Los Angeles and New York City: $750 Million.
2007: This state is run as a banana republic. As such, it starts collecting people's taxes to build a system that has no environmental approvals.
2007: Smoke and mirror events begin in earnest paid by taxpayers. Neither Leeward Community College nor UH-Manoa get any stations.
2008: Hannemann gives a helicopter ride to Oberstar who then says that Feds will give $900 Million. Hannemann declares that “the train has left the station.”
2008: Senator Inouye says that if we lose the EPA lawsuit for sewage treatment the $1.2 Billion bill “will break the back of the city.”
2008: Council support is shaky. Back room deal-making results in a route via Salt Lake.
2008: DEIS comes just two (2) days before the General Election and referendum or rail promising a ridership of 97,000 in the opening year! (No modern light rail in the US, even in cities 5 times bigger than Honolulu, carries more than 38,000.)
There is no time to review the DEIS but Inouye advises that people only need to read the summary. Fed share is now claimed to be $1.2 Billion.
2008: Public is deluged with city, union and Hannemann campaign “Light Rail” commercials, emails and letters, and a 50.6% “victory” is obtained.
2008: More political maneuvering and the route goes back via the airport. Warnings that it violates Federal Aviation Administration rules are ignored.
2009: Construction will start at the end of the year. (Isn’t it still 2009?)
2009: Rail is insolvent – Inouye joins the rail party. Feds are now claimed to pay $1.55 Billion.
2009: We lost the EPA lawsuit and appeal. We are now $1.2 Billion in the hole. But ignorance is bliss.
2009: Desperate for good news. Hannemann: “Rail creates 10,000 jobs!”
2009: UH Economic Research Unit: Rail might create up to 2,000 jobs in its peak year. (Given that all rail technology and materials need to be imported, I estimate that Local Jobs will be no more than 1,000 per year.)
2009: In November Hannemann declares that he is willing to wait a month or two to iron out some details; 6 months later his iron is not working.
2010: City steals $300 Million from future TheBus capital investment to balance TheRail budget.
2010: Four years after the Alternatives Analysis and three years after the start of tax collection this proposal has no environmental clearance, no cultural resources clearance and no robust budget.
2010: The cost is up to $5.4 Billion not counting the expensive Airport Runway avoidance. Hannemann really needs to get off this train.
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2 comments:
This time-line paints the clearest picture of the absurd project that is heavy elevated rail for Oahu. Total waste of resources to allow the current administration to promote a project that will no more stop traffic congestion than the man in the moon! Deception, political pay back cash-delusional thinking at the highest level.
Spot on Professor.
The rule of thumb here is that projects will cost three times as much as they are initially estimated at, and it's looking like that will eventually be the case.
In the end, it's not about ridership, it's about creating jobs. If they really wanted to take cars of the roads and improve traffic, it would be much cheaper to further or completely subsidize TheBus.
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