Randall O'Toole's blog provides this sobering insight in Rail Jobs Overestimated.
Randall also predicted Honolulu's likely predicament with rail by analyzing the extension of a heavy rail line in Washington, D.C. in $6 Billion Down the Drain
The interesting thing is that the motivation and conclusion are the same for Washington and Honolulu! So taxpayers are on the hook for spending at least $5.2 billion — more likely $6 billion or more — for a rail line designed solely to benefit a few property owners and developers. But, as it turns out, even they won’t benefit from it.
Because rail is the 5% solution... 5% will use it, the remainder 95% will be stuck in horrendous congestion. And with more potholes and lane closures from water main breaks because the city's budget will be broke.
Is that a legacy worth leaving to our children?
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For the years I've been involved in the transit business, I've never encountered a situation where ridership was correctly estimated or underestimated. And unfortunately, no one ever seems to own up to these situations, and the press is too lazy to follow up.
A similar situation exists here in California where ridership for high speed rail is overestimated to the point of being illegal as far as the pursuit of federal funds.
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