Honolulu's Recycling Plan Needs Important Revisions

Throughout my campaigns for mayor of Honolulu I focused on the flawed recycling efforts of Honolulu. Huge amounts of effort and fuel are wasted to recycle things instead of safely burning them and making free electricity for Honolulu.

Back in 2013 I developed a pictorial guide for Honolulu.

Later in 2013, a graduate student of mine and I published an article in the Pacific Business News which revealed that "Waste to energy is superior to any other technology in the long term."

Then in July 2015 HONOLULU magazine quotes me about a dozen times in their detailed article Should Honolulu’s Recycling Program Go Up in Flames?

“Trash is treasure,” says Panos Prevedouros, chair of the Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering at UH Mānoa and a former mayoral candidate. “Not only do you make energy, you remove something that is bad.” Prevedouros adds that a waste-to-energy plant can make “serious money” charging tipping fees, selling its electricity to the utility and harvesting the valuable metals for what he calls “a win-win-win” situation: The plant helps the state meet its renewable energy goals...

Paper and cardboard are heavy and hard to compact further for efficient shipping to recycling plants; they burn beautifully, and are depressed in price. “Paper, oh, my God, it’s really perverse to recycle. We’re losing the opportunity to make energy, and we’re wasting more fossil fuel to ship it somewhere else. If you have paper, put it in the gray bin,” says Prevedouros.

Driving Automation ... Sooner?

Automatic Cars Or Distracted Drivers: We Need Automation Sooner, Not Later argues professor Don Norman.  Technology is moving that way. It's not a matter of if, it's a matter of when.

In 2005 Stanford's "Stanley" a driverless VW SUV won the DARPA award for negotiating a grueling 132 mile off-road race in the California/Devada desert.

By 2010 Google had several driverless Prius cars plowing streets in California practically accident free.

In 2015 the Google car is unveiled with no steering wheel and a top speed of 25 mph.

When will the ability of driverless vehicles meet and exceed the ability of drivers? Driver distraction and age effects are helping technology by raising risk which is better controlled in driverless cars.

Driverless Cars: Does Google Have Answers?

Lou Frenzel who writes and teaches about electronics and communications recently opined Just Say No to the Driverless Car. His article includes 15 questions and the 16th one is Does Google Have Answers?

I have an answer for Google, but first, Frenzel's 15 questions for driverless cars:

Can driverless cars operate as safely at night as they do during the day?

Can driverless cars handle rain, fog, and snow?

Once a driverless car gets you to your destination, can it find a parking place in a parking garage or on the street? Can it navigate your garage?

What if you want to go for a casual Sunday drive with no particular destination? Does the car have a “browser” that lets it just wander in a highlighted area, or what? Or will that even be allowed?

Will drivers get frustrated in navigating around slower, more-cautious driverless cars?

Can a driverless car ever make a left-hand turn across traffic, make a right turn on red, or merge into heavy traffic? In many cases, some risk is necessary to make any progress.

Can a driverless car find a toll lane, navigate road construction, or find a detour?

Can a driverless car operate in New York City traffic?

Will the driverless car really improve a person’s productivity if relieved of driving duties, as proponents claim?

Will there be an increase in the incidence of motion sickness in non-drivers, as some expect?

Whose insurance company pays in case of an accident?

Will driverless cars really reduce deaths and injuries? Supporters say yes, but this has not been proven.

Will driverless technology come to 18-wheelers? Scary thought.

Will driverless cars really be affordable, or just too expensive like electrics?

Why not just apply all the good technology to regular cars or make a driverless mode an option?

The last three questions are easy to answer.
18-wheelers? Yes, for testing purposes: Daimler’s Driverless 18-Wheelers Approved to Cruise Nevada’s Highways
Affordable? No. Driverless cars: 15 things you need to know. System costs start at $70,000 (plus the car.)
Optional driverless function? Yes. It has started with intelligent cruise control, lane keeping, and other piece-meal components available now in mid-range priced vehicles and above.

So, does Google have answers to all these questions? Google rarely published or debates the merits and demerits of their current state of the art.  My guestimate is Yes, a Google Car can do all of the above with over 99% reliability if, and it's a big if, all traffic is limited to 30 mph or less.

Understanding Public Transportation Policy

This is a eureka moment.  The following is the only rule one has to know to understand public transportation policy in the US and first world socialist countries.

"It must always be remembered how cost-effectiveness works in the public sector: the cost is the benefit." --Thomas Rubin

It is finally distilled!  The Cost is the Benefit.

A region or a nation prospers when benefits outweigh costs for all public projects.  If Benefits are $$$$ and Costs are $$, then the benefit/cost ratio is 2.  That's a good project. It yields $2 of benefits for every $1 spent to build it!

But look at Honolulu's rail where the benefits are $ and the costs are $$$$$$$$$$. The benefit/cost ratio is less than 0.1 and the entire public sector and political elite are strongly in favor. Why? Because, following Rubin's Rule, its enormous cost of $6 Billion and counting is the benefit!

The alternatives analysis eliminated a $2 Billion light rail and a $1.5 Billion HOT lanes.  Not enough Cost... excuse me, not enough Benefit.

Unfortunately this is a certain indicator that a society has began its Roman Empire decay.

Hawaii rids itself from Ethanol Mandate

Hawaii is poised to repeal ethanol in gasoline. Better late than never. This was another loser that I advised against back in 2007...

Rail Cracks

20 miles of concrete bridge and 21 large elevated stations will come with many construction problems. It is surprising however that large problems have developed in the first two miles of the guideway of Honolulu's elevated rail.

"There is evidence for concern at this point. There are some obvious failures," said Panos Prevedouros, a frequent rail critic and a University of Hawaii civil engineering professor.

“Large-sized cracks are not normal, only hairline cracks are acceptable in concrete,” said University of Hawaii engineering professor Panos Prevedouros.

The March 31, Zip-geddon

The disablement of the Zipmobile on H-1 Freeway cause a major lane imbalance for the afternoon commute in west Oahu by reducing available freeway lane capacity by two lanes.

My immediate reaction od Facebook got over 160 "likes" as of this writing:

I am sorry folks. I am at home now watching the rivers of red lights all over town. They'd be the same with or without rail. We used to have two or three of these a year. Now its a half dozen per year and getting worse... Just wait for the prolonged lane closures for the rail stations. So sorry that our place is run by smooth talking lawyers and uninformed voters. What an avoidable lose-lose!

Hawaii News Now's Ben Gutierrez interviewed me for a piece on After traffic nightmare, other options may be reconsidered:

University of Hawaii civil and environmental engineering professor Panos Prevedouros has advocated reversible express lanes from the H-1/H-2 merge to the downtown area, which he calls a critical stretch for commuters.

"If we had it yesterday, two or three lanes, express to the H-1/H-2 split, it would be like nothing happened," he said.

Star Advertiser's  Kristen Consillio quoted me extensively in her article Jam costs $1 million in lost gas and time:

The economic loss of more than 75,000 vehicles carrying more than 100,000 people stuck in an hourslong traffic jam was estimated by Panos Prevedouros, professor and chairman of civil and environmental engineering at the University of Hawaii.

Prevedouros, a former mayoral candidate, calculated the loss based on a typical one-hour trip growing to four or more hours, and using the minimum wage and current cost of gas to value the time and energy wasted.

"Obviously it's disruptive to people's schedules so it's a waste of time and money," added UH economist Carl Bonham. "At the end of the day, it's really wasted time when people could've been doing something productive."

The severe congestion that started around 2 p.m. delayed deliveries, while some flights were missed.

"Some people arrived home so late that they were planning to call in sick the next day — that's another loss," Prevedouros added. "Every major event has both positives and negatives. Yesterday's horrendous congestion was no exception."

Many bus drivers gained extra overtime, some taxi drivers had some large fares and many restaurants in town had an unusually busy Tuesday dinner business, Prevedouros said.

"Of course, idling for hours makes drivers fume and it is highly polluting, but empty tanks is more business for gas stations," he said.

U.S. Cities, Some Growing, Some Shrinking

The large population change from the snow-belt to the sun-belt of the U.S. continues unabated.

In the five years between 2010 and 2014, the four snow-belt cities of New York, Chicago, Philadelphia and Washington, DC and the mismanaged city of Los Angeles lost a combined 270,000 loss in population, or net out-migration as demographers call it.

The state of Texas alone was a major attractor with four of each large cities, Dallas-Fort Worth, Houston, San Antonio and Austin gaining 80,000 population in the same years.

More analysis in Wendel Cox's  Still Moving to Texas: The 2014 Metropolitan Population Estimates.

Ugly Traffic Poles

The city must stop installing these huge, ugly and expensive light poles. They are wider than a car door! These ugly poles and masts have already defaced Kailua and Puck's Alley. The Caldwell administration has no sensibility and environmental sensitivity. Cease and desist!