Hawaii is poised to repeal ethanol in gasoline. Better late than never. This was another loser that I advised against back in 2007...
Monday, May 4, 2015
Friday, April 17, 2015
Rail Cracks
20 miles of concrete bridge and 21 large elevated stations will come with many construction problems. It is surprising however that large problems have developed in the first two miles of the guideway of Honolulu's elevated rail.
"There is evidence for concern at this point. There are some obvious failures," said Panos Prevedouros, a frequent rail critic and a University of Hawaii civil engineering professor.
“Large-sized cracks are not normal, only hairline cracks are acceptable in concrete,” said University of Hawaii engineering professor Panos Prevedouros.
"There is evidence for concern at this point. There are some obvious failures," said Panos Prevedouros, a frequent rail critic and a University of Hawaii civil engineering professor.
“Large-sized cracks are not normal, only hairline cracks are acceptable in concrete,” said University of Hawaii engineering professor Panos Prevedouros.
Thursday, April 2, 2015
The March 31, Zip-geddon
The disablement of the Zipmobile on H-1 Freeway cause a major lane imbalance for the afternoon commute in west Oahu by reducing available freeway lane capacity by two lanes.
My immediate reaction od Facebook got over 160 "likes" as of this writing:
I am sorry folks. I am at home now watching the rivers of red lights all over town. They'd be the same with or without rail. We used to have two or three of these a year. Now its a half dozen per year and getting worse... Just wait for the prolonged lane closures for the rail stations. So sorry that our place is run by smooth talking lawyers and uninformed voters. What an avoidable lose-lose!
Hawaii News Now's Ben Gutierrez interviewed me for a piece on After traffic nightmare, other options may be reconsidered:
University of Hawaii civil and environmental engineering professor Panos Prevedouros has advocated reversible express lanes from the H-1/H-2 merge to the downtown area, which he calls a critical stretch for commuters.
"If we had it yesterday, two or three lanes, express to the H-1/H-2 split, it would be like nothing happened," he said.
Star Advertiser's Kristen Consillio quoted me extensively in her article Jam costs $1 million in lost gas and time:
My immediate reaction od Facebook got over 160 "likes" as of this writing:
I am sorry folks. I am at home now watching the rivers of red lights all over town. They'd be the same with or without rail. We used to have two or three of these a year. Now its a half dozen per year and getting worse... Just wait for the prolonged lane closures for the rail stations. So sorry that our place is run by smooth talking lawyers and uninformed voters. What an avoidable lose-lose!
Hawaii News Now's Ben Gutierrez interviewed me for a piece on After traffic nightmare, other options may be reconsidered:
University of Hawaii civil and environmental engineering professor Panos Prevedouros has advocated reversible express lanes from the H-1/H-2 merge to the downtown area, which he calls a critical stretch for commuters.
"If we had it yesterday, two or three lanes, express to the H-1/H-2 split, it would be like nothing happened," he said.
Star Advertiser's Kristen Consillio quoted me extensively in her article Jam costs $1 million in lost gas and time:
The
economic loss of more than 75,000 vehicles carrying more than 100,000
people stuck in an hourslong traffic jam was estimated by Panos
Prevedouros, professor and chairman of civil and environmental
engineering at the University of Hawaii.
Prevedouros,
a former mayoral candidate, calculated the loss based on a typical
one-hour trip growing to four or more hours, and using the minimum
wage and current cost of gas to value the time and energy wasted.
"Obviously
it's disruptive to people's schedules so it's a waste of time and
money," added UH economist Carl Bonham. "At the end of the day,
it's really wasted time when people could've been doing something
productive."
The severe congestion that started around 2 p.m. delayed deliveries, while some flights were missed.
"Some
people arrived home so late that they were planning to call in sick the
next day — that's another loss," Prevedouros added. "Every major
event has both positives and negatives. Yesterday's horrendous
congestion was no exception."
Many bus
drivers gained extra overtime, some taxi drivers had some large fares
and many restaurants in town had an unusually busy Tuesday dinner
business, Prevedouros said.
"Of
course, idling for hours makes drivers fume and it is highly polluting,
but empty tanks is more business for gas stations," he said.
Tuesday, March 31, 2015
U.S. Cities, Some Growing, Some Shrinking
The large population change from the snow-belt to the sun-belt of the U.S. continues unabated.
In the five years between 2010 and 2014, the four snow-belt cities of New York, Chicago, Philadelphia and Washington, DC and the mismanaged city of Los Angeles lost a combined 270,000 loss in population, or net out-migration as demographers call it.
The state of Texas alone was a major attractor with four of each large cities, Dallas-Fort Worth, Houston, San Antonio and Austin gaining 80,000 population in the same years.
More analysis in Wendel Cox's Still Moving to Texas: The 2014 Metropolitan Population Estimates.
In the five years between 2010 and 2014, the four snow-belt cities of New York, Chicago, Philadelphia and Washington, DC and the mismanaged city of Los Angeles lost a combined 270,000 loss in population, or net out-migration as demographers call it.
The state of Texas alone was a major attractor with four of each large cities, Dallas-Fort Worth, Houston, San Antonio and Austin gaining 80,000 population in the same years.
More analysis in Wendel Cox's Still Moving to Texas: The 2014 Metropolitan Population Estimates.
Monday, March 30, 2015
Thursday, March 19, 2015
It Depends What You Study, Not Where
The Economist: What you study matters far more than where you study it: Engineers and computer scientists do best, earning an impressive 20-year annualized return of 12% on their college fees.
Wednesday, March 4, 2015
18th Century Infrastructure
In her article in the LA Times "Some Perspective on What We Have to be Thankful for" Marian L. Tupy presents a startling summary of 18th Century infrastructure that sounds so remote from first world today yet it was only 300 years ago...
"The palace also was ill equipped to deal with human waste. People relieved themselves wherever they could. Thus, shortly before Louis XIV died [in 1715], an ordinance decreed that feces be removed from the corridors of Versailles once a week. All that filth meant that disease-spreading parasites were rife. Before the 19th century, people had no idea about the germ theory of disease, and doctors often caused more harm than good."
"If this was the life of Europe's richest and most powerful man, imagine what ordinary people's lives must have been like. People lacked basic medicines and died relatively young. They had no painkillers, and people with ailments spent much of their lives in agonizing pain. Entire families lived in bug-infested dwellings that offered neither comfort nor privacy."
And here is a depiction of 18th century London's life and hazards.
"The palace also was ill equipped to deal with human waste. People relieved themselves wherever they could. Thus, shortly before Louis XIV died [in 1715], an ordinance decreed that feces be removed from the corridors of Versailles once a week. All that filth meant that disease-spreading parasites were rife. Before the 19th century, people had no idea about the germ theory of disease, and doctors often caused more harm than good."
"If this was the life of Europe's richest and most powerful man, imagine what ordinary people's lives must have been like. People lacked basic medicines and died relatively young. They had no painkillers, and people with ailments spent much of their lives in agonizing pain. Entire families lived in bug-infested dwellings that offered neither comfort nor privacy."
And here is a depiction of 18th century London's life and hazards.
Tuesday, March 3, 2015
Letter to the Honolulu City Council: Hoopili Doesn’t Fit
Mahalo to Honolulu Civil Beat for publishing my Letter to the Honolulu City Council: Hoopili Doesn’t Fit.
This version includes the pictures in Appendices A and B.
I concluded by saying that it baffles me beyond belief that the Honolulu City Council is serially approving future development such as Ho'opili and transportation projects like the rail that are certifiably calamitous for our island community.
This version includes the pictures in Appendices A and B.
I concluded by saying that it baffles me beyond belief that the Honolulu City Council is serially approving future development such as Ho'opili and transportation projects like the rail that are certifiably calamitous for our island community.
Monday, February 16, 2015
HHUA Expert Panel with Robert Poole and LaVonda Atkinson
ACCOUNTABILITY OF BIG INFRASTRUCTURE PROJECTS was an expert panel presentation in Honolulu, Hawaii organized by the Hawaii Highway Users Alliance. The event took place at the Pacific Club on February 6, 2015.
MIT Engineer Robert Poole spoke about Reducing Risks in Transportation Mega-Projects
[S p e e c h] [S l i d e s h o w]
Robert Poole is a co-founder of Reason Foundation and its president from 1968 to 2001. Los Angeles based Reason Foundation is committed to advancing "the values of individual freedom and choice, limited government, and market-friendly policies." Bob is an MIT-trained engineer and the author of Cutting Back City Hall. Bob has advised the Ronald Reagan, the George H.W. Bush, the Clinton, and the George W. Bush administrations.
Bob has also advised many agencies and state DOTs. For example, in 2008 he served as a member of the Texas Study Committee on Private Participation in Toll Roads, appointed by Gov. Rick Perry. In 2009, he was a member of an Expert Review Panel for Washington State DOT, advising on a $1.5 billion toll mega-project. In 2010, he was a member of the transportation transition team for Florida's Governor-elect Rick Scott.
Cost Engineer LaVonda Atkinson spoke about The Billion Dollar Mile
[S p e e c h] [S l i d e s h o w]
LaVonda Atkinson has worked as a program cost control analyst for 20 years. Mrs. Atkinson has managed billion dollar projects for NASA, Department of Defense, Department of Energy, Federal Transportation Agencies and others in both the government and private sector.
Mrs. Atkinson began cost control and analysis of the San Francisco T-line extension in 2012, a project funded with $1 billion dollars per mile by Federal tax payer dollars. Mrs. Atkinson blew the whistle for civil servant abuses of power, misappropriation of congressional funds and an overall misuse of the American citizens’ trust. Mrs. Atkinson found a brood of unethical government contractors and incapable government enforcers.
Just two days after her presentation in Honolulu, Ms. Atkinson was announced as a recipient of the 2015 James Madison Freedom of Information Award!
MIT Engineer Robert Poole spoke about Reducing Risks in Transportation Mega-Projects
[S p e e c h] [S l i d e s h o w]
Robert Poole is a co-founder of Reason Foundation and its president from 1968 to 2001. Los Angeles based Reason Foundation is committed to advancing "the values of individual freedom and choice, limited government, and market-friendly policies." Bob is an MIT-trained engineer and the author of Cutting Back City Hall. Bob has advised the Ronald Reagan, the George H.W. Bush, the Clinton, and the George W. Bush administrations.
Bob has also advised many agencies and state DOTs. For example, in 2008 he served as a member of the Texas Study Committee on Private Participation in Toll Roads, appointed by Gov. Rick Perry. In 2009, he was a member of an Expert Review Panel for Washington State DOT, advising on a $1.5 billion toll mega-project. In 2010, he was a member of the transportation transition team for Florida's Governor-elect Rick Scott.
Cost Engineer LaVonda Atkinson spoke about The Billion Dollar Mile
[S p e e c h] [S l i d e s h o w]
LaVonda Atkinson has worked as a program cost control analyst for 20 years. Mrs. Atkinson has managed billion dollar projects for NASA, Department of Defense, Department of Energy, Federal Transportation Agencies and others in both the government and private sector.
Mrs. Atkinson began cost control and analysis of the San Francisco T-line extension in 2012, a project funded with $1 billion dollars per mile by Federal tax payer dollars. Mrs. Atkinson blew the whistle for civil servant abuses of power, misappropriation of congressional funds and an overall misuse of the American citizens’ trust. Mrs. Atkinson found a brood of unethical government contractors and incapable government enforcers.
Just two days after her presentation in Honolulu, Ms. Atkinson was announced as a recipient of the 2015 James Madison Freedom of Information Award!
Labels:
construction,
Infrastructure,
Panel,
Policy
Tuesday, February 10, 2015
Rail Week 2015
January 29, 2015
What Can We Do About the Rail? Nothing. Tackle Traffic Congestion!
January 30, 2015
At Least $1.25B Has Been Spent on Rail So Far, But Where Has All the Money Gone?
February 1, 2015
Hawaii Poll: Rising Cost of Rail Project
February 2, 2015
Okino, Djou: End the State Skim on Rail Funds
February 2, 2015 -- check
Large Rail Contractors Dump $1.3 Million into Local Campaign Coffers
February 6, 2015
Accountability of Big Infrastructure Projects
HART is literally burning one billion dollars in the middle of prime ag. land!
What Can We Do About the Rail? Nothing. Tackle Traffic Congestion!
January 30, 2015
At Least $1.25B Has Been Spent on Rail So Far, But Where Has All the Money Gone?
February 1, 2015
Hawaii Poll: Rising Cost of Rail Project
February 2, 2015
Okino, Djou: End the State Skim on Rail Funds
February 2, 2015 -- check
Large Rail Contractors Dump $1.3 Million into Local Campaign Coffers
February 6, 2015
Accountability of Big Infrastructure Projects
HART is literally burning one billion dollars in the middle of prime ag. land!
Monday, February 2, 2015
What Can We Do About The Rail? Nothing. Tackle Traffic Congestion!
Various groups are energized and urge
me and each other to do something about stopping Honolulu’s rail project. The recent commotion has been brought about by
(1) the large delays; the project is
roughly three years behind schedule because the city did a poor job with the
archaeological inventory and then deliberately delayed and obstructed the two
lawsuits; (2) the revelations last December that the project is already about $900
million over budget, and (3) the City Ethics Commission’s investigation on the
non-disclosure of rail project related gifts to five City Council Members,
which could potentially reverse some important pro-rail votes and approvals.
So what can be done about stopping the
rail project now? Nothing, other than holding HART and the City accountable for project expenditures. Unfortunately this is easier said than done given that
between FY 2008 and FY 2012 more than $550 million were spent and hardly any
project was laid on the ground!
Other agencies on the mainland can
complete a 10-mile multilane freeway including all planning, design and
clearances for this sum of money. But
for $550 million we got TV and newspaper ads, building and office rentals, salaries,
travelling expenses for planners and officials, piles of Xeroxing and plain and
3-hole paper, laptop and desktop computers, cellphone and courier bills, and
magazine subscriptions.
And a lot more traffic congestion since
2006 when the rail project started.
What’s the bottom
line on traffic congestion on Oahu?
Honolulu has among the worst traffic
flow conditions in the nation because it is grossly lane deficient, that is,
Honolulu has too few lane miles for its population and travel patterns.
Honolulu rail will never provide any
congestion relief for the traveling public. By the time some usable portion of the
project is done, say, Kapolei to Pearl City, its (tiny) traffic reduction will
be already surpassed by traffic growth given the tens of thousands of planned
new homes west of Aloha Stadium.
Starting this year, there will be
extensive lane closures to build the guideway and the street-spanning
stations. HART can’t build 21 roughly football field sized concrete
stations 30 ft. in the air and leave lanes open to traffic under it during
construction. In a typical scenario, half of Farrington Fwy., Kamehameha Hwy.,
and Dillingham Blvd. will have to be closed for many months at a time.
Next year the project may be in the
vicinity of Pearl Harbor and Aloha Stadium. As a result, word will get out in
the tourist market that Oahu is one huge traffic and construction mess.
Assuming that construction progresses
normally, around year 2017, construction by the airport will have major impacts
on the access and land-side operations at the Honolulu International Airport. This
will be quite annoying to frequent interisland travelers and on occasion it may
result in missed flights.
Around year 2020, several street blocks
in downtown and Kakaako will be closed for months at a time. A long, dissecting
portion of Kakaako will be an active construction site. Neither shop owners nor
patrons can be allowed in a construction site. Mauka-makai movements between
Chinatown and Ala Moana will be critically affected. Kakaako’s revitalization
will be heavily impacted.
Despite all this, given Hawaii's
political and decision making reality, at this time there is no point to “fight
the rail.” But there is a clear need to fight for traffic congestion solutions.
This is what Oahu needed to begin with.
What can be done
about congestion?
First let’s not forget that the Hawaii
State DOT added a lane on each side of the central part of the H-1 Freeway in
2014. This has helped a lot!
Also, the Hawaii State DOT is adding a
lane on each side of the Pearl City viaduct on the H-1 Freeway. It’ll help
somewhat, but this one lane per direction addition is not enough for the
current, let alone future levels of demand to/from west Oahu.
There are also some plans to add a lane
at the H-1/H-2 merge. This lane
addition, if implemented, will be “too little too late” but will provide some
congestion relief. The long queues and long periods of stop-and-go congestion
will get a little shorter.
There are many more options. Here is a
sample of past suggestions, many of which are readily applicable today:
How can Oahu get
congestion relief?
Fundamentally, we must:
- Get a grip with reality and stop believing that rail will reduce traffic congestion on Oahu at any time in the future.
- Aggressively install lane additions, contraflow lanes, bypass lanes and bus-on-shoulder operations before the impacts of rail construction choke west Oahu’s mobility.
- Realize that Saudis and fracking will keep the cost of fossil fuels at moderate levels, and Congress won't tax transportation fuels in a substantial way. Economic brakes to driving won't apply for several more years. Thus traffic will grow and so will congestion.
- Promote effective solutions for traffic congestion relief through the government channels. Additions of new traffic lanes should be a priority.
- Create a non-governmental Oahu Mobility Group. Currently businesses and business organizations are asleep at the wheel when it comes to traffic congestion, which costs them dearly, while government is relying on silly projections of congestion relief with public transit, smart growth, TODs and complete streets. The government is working on improvements for the 10% of the travelers with “alternative transportation and life styles.” It largely ignores the 90% of the travelers that use cars, carpools, mopeds, motorcycles and buses on congested streets. A strong voice is needed to set transportation priorities right.
Once again, what can
be done about Honolulu’s rail project?
I think that in a few years there will
be substantial appetite to terminate the rail at the airport or at the Iwilei
end of Dillingham Blvd. and to continue the rail's original Ala Moana, Waikiki
and University routes with bus circulators on priority lanes. The powers that
be may adopt this as a win-win compromise if the effect of rail construction is
too much for locals, and for tourism arrivals and operations. Or if the
electorate (finally) gets mad at them.
Tuesday, January 20, 2015
Subscribe to:
Posts (Atom)