Progress on Autonomous Vehicles

By Baruch Feigenbaum, as reported in the June 2017 issue no 164 of Robert Poole's SURFACE TRANSPORTATION INNOVATIONS

Last month I attended an automated vehicle conference at Princeton and read the Eno Center for Transportation's new AV policy paper. Both make excellent contributions.

The 2017 Smart Driving Car Summit in Princeton was created and organized by AV researcher and professor Alain Kornhauser. Kornhauser has been researching the intersection between technology and transportation for 50 years; he also writes a useful and amusing weekly AV newsletter. The summit was divided into two days. The first day featured presentations on AV technology, safety, and insurance while the second consisted of workshops on AV planning, insurance and artificial intelligence.

On the first day, AV researcher Bern Grush gave a very good presentation on how AVs could affect communities, highlighting that while most experts expect AVs to increase VMT, uncertainty about a transformative technology makes planning challenging. Adriano Allesandrini from the University of Rome gave a forceful presentation on how automated vehicles are available and on the road today; they are called buses. CityMobil 2 has demonstrated automated slow-speed buses in many European cities. The challenge is that buses traveling at 8 mph have limited ridership potential, so the technology needs to be improved before these buses are viable. He also challenged conference attendees to think about what is best for urban areas rather than what is best for car companies.

Danny Shapiro from NVIDIA presented a fascinating discussion of machine learning. He discussed how, using CAD simulation software and a graphics processing unit, researchers have been able to build a car's brain. It is the same technology used for facial recognition software, and the improvement in machine learning over the past five years has been revolutionary.

In the afternoon we had several presentations on the availability/effectiveness of AV features. Auto dealer Sheldon Sandler revealed that the two most valued AV features are a rearview camera and blind-spot warning. They are the only features that more than 60% of buyers request. Manufacturers offer advanced AV features on a limited number of models only, and they often require customers to buy a package of features that they don't want. For example, the Hyundai Sonata offers a safety package. But it costs more than $5,000 because in order to get the safety features, customers have to order the Limited Tech package with a premium audio system and heated rear seats. Manufacturers offer these packages because most consumers don't put a high value on safety features. So despite what buyers claim in stated preference surveys, car buyers are not willing to pay much for advanced technology. More depressing was a presentation from the Insurance Institute for Highway Safety that showed many of today's Level 2 AV features, such as automatic braking, don't work in many real-world situations. In almost 50% of cases, automated braking did not engage fast enough to avoid hitting a car or a pedestrian.

The Eno policy paper, "Adopting and Adapting: States and Automated Vehicle Policy," is a 30-page report worth reading. It provides an overview of AVs and offers recommendations to states. My focus here is on the recommendations section that is broken into three parts: Regulations, Infrastructure Investment and Funding, and Research and Workforce Training.

The paper suggests relatively relaxed regulations, including not overdoing reporting requirements, and creating non-binding statements or principles. It recommends states work with NHTSA on liability and safety issues. I believe this means that NHTSA should stick primarily to federal issues such as safety standards, and states should control licensing. Federalism suggests a certain balance between federal and state-level rules. I generally agree with these recommendations, as nothing that I have seen so far in AVs suggests that balance should be upset.

For state AV infrastructure investment, the report recommends focusing on keeping highways in a state of good repair. The report also recommends that automated vehicles pay mileage based user fees (MBUFs) instead of a gas tax. So far, MBUF acceptance has been slow due to the development of the technology and the political resistance to paying by the mile. Eno believes that MBUFs can be implemented more easily using vehicles with new features such as AVs.

The document also recommends funding research to explore how AVs may affect the broader economy. One recommendation suggests revising procurement processes so research keeps up with innovation. Governments seldom keep up with new technology because internal processes are designed to be slow and conservative. For research to be useful it cannot be developed at the typical government pace. Finally, Eno recommends investing in programs to train people for AV repair. Today's colleges and technical schools need to think about the skills tomorrow's workers need. And those are not the skills needed to fix a 2005 Dodge.

The Eno report has two weaknesses. The first is that it examines states only; it does not look at metropolitan planning organizations (MPOs) or cities. MPOs are the federally designated planning entity for regions; they are interested in AV guidance as well.

The second is the suggestion of digital short-range communications (DSRC) pilot projects. DSRC has a host of problems: it's outdated and inferior to 5G, it takes up valuable wireless spectrum, and it is really expensive to build the needed infrastructure. For the past 18 years, part of the 5.9 Ghz band has been reserved for DSRC, but the technology is still not ready. With the advent of 5G and the need for connected vehicles still some years off, there is simply no point to pursuing DSRC.

April 2017 Poll: No More Willingness to Pay for HART Rail.

Middle Street Rail Station Will Be Built Over Water

Hawaii News Now reporter Rick Daysog investigated the odd choice of building the Middle Street station of HART rail over the flood prone Kalihi stream. I opined as follows:

• “At a minimum, the foundation problem will double in cost. And I'm talking minimum compared to dry land,” said rail critic and University of Hawaii civil engineering professor Panos Prevedouros.
• Prevedouros said he expects the costs to be in the $60 to $70 million range due to the complexity of building over water.
• He said HART could have located the station further east on what is now a parking lot at First Hawaiian Bank's data center, but chose not to.
• First Hawaiian's former CEO was chairman of HART for years. Prevedouros and community activists question whether that influenced the decision to leave most of the First Hawaiian parking alone.
• "I don't know if it's taking care of their own or some other sensitivity to the property. Or it could be some malfeasance there,” Prevedouros said.
• Prevedouros and other rail critics said that a proposed forensic audit of HART’s operations would have shed more light on HART's decision to build the Middle Street station at its current location.
• Prevedouros and other rail critics said that a proposed forensic audit of HART’s operations would have shed more light on HART's decision to build the Middle Street station at its current location.
• “People who ignore history are doomed to repeat it. If you don’t learn from your mistake, how can you possibly improve in the future,” Prevedouros said.

Chris Urmson Reflects On Challenges of Driverless Cars

Chris Urmson reflects on challenges, no-win scenarios and timing of driverless cars is a summary of six important points (written by Chuka Mui in Forbes) that summarize the current state of the art and the future likely path of driverless technology.

1. There is a lot more chaos on the road than most recognize.
2. Human intent is the fundamental challenge for driverless cars.
3. Incremental driver assistance systems will not evolve into driverless cars.
4. Don’t let the “Trolley Car Problem” [ethics] make the perfect into the enemy of the great.
5. The “mad rush” is justified.
6. Deployment will happen “relatively quickly.”

Most articles that cover Transportation as a Service or TaaS including this neglect to address the environmental trade-off... much less need for parking, but much higher VMT and energy use.

Death spiral for cars. By 2030, you probably won’t own one shows possible trends in costs and adoptions, but I think that it is way off the mark.

Bad Things Come in Threes

Bad things come in threes?

Who believes in these things?

Well, life has its way with things...

ONE -- On Saturday, I leave the office, by car, a little after 3 PM, and enter H-1 Freeway at the University Avenue on ramp. I had picked up my car at 7 AM from the dealer after its comprehensive 20,000 service was done.

One mile down the road, at about 3:15 PM, all hell breaks lose all of a sudden. Dashboard becomes orange, and the car self regulates its speed to 10 mph. On the freeway.  Thankfully I am past the Punahou Street on-ramp and thanks to the perennial congestion on that past of the H-1 freeway, almost nobody notices.

Chassis stabilization. (Now that's a warning lost in translation from German)

Drivetrain: Vehicle cannot be restarted (Really? Ever?)

Drive moderately (10 mph is not moderately. It is slug-ly)

Policeman in a big Ford Taurus stops me on Keeaumoku Street as I was limping back to the dealer.  He comes by my window with a smile and a little contempt in his voice.... "Run out of gas, huh?"

But then he sees all the orange flashing decorations on the dashboard... "Nope, I'm limping back to the shop" I said.

Four miles and half an hour later I arrive at the dealer and the service advisor from this morning became all flush with embarrassment because he had released my car earlier this morning all serviced, washed and ready for the next 10,000 trouble free miles... only to be back in less than 10 miles.

I get a free ride home in a better vehicle and about an hour later I get a call.  "An air hose got disconnected. All good now."

The car could actually drive OK with the hose busted, but this small defect was made into a big deal by the on-board computer.  That's the price of progress... all the digital nannies for getting 25 mpg from a 300+ horsepower engine.

TWO: Sunday 9 AM. My son Endie and I walk up our steep street with our bikes to load them on the old Mazda truck to go for a ride in the flat lands (Kapiolani Park is our favorite.)

Bad surprise... Something fell, or someone threw something and cracked the windshield!

It's a small set of cracks, but it can no longer pass safety inspection. Who pays $400 for a new windshield for a 1986 truck valued at $1,500 at best?

Buh humbug... Kidney Car or parts car on Craigslist.

But we loaded the bikes and went bike-riding anyway.

TWO AND A HALF: Sunday 10 AM at Kapiolani Park.

Glorious day for biking. Lots of people and bikers enjoying the park.  We had just finished the back straight of the Honolulu Zoo and ready to make a left down Kapahulu Avenue. But I nearly took a spill.  Front tire suddenly all flat!

There goes our pleasant bike ride. Rode back to the truck with the cracked windshield on the flat tired bike, on the grass for a sweaty and aerobic experience.

... AND THE ANOTHER HALF MAKES THREE: Sunday 12:30 PM.

Our family of four boards the now repaired and fully serviced sedan of Thing One and heads to Kahuku for shrimp.

I wanted the car to "stretch its legs" on the freeway, so I chose the H-1, H-2, Haleiwa route instead of the trans-Koolau route via Kaneohe.

At 1 PM we hit the wall at the Joseph Leong Haleiwa Bypass. The longest and slowest queue I have ever seen at this location.  About half of the progress we made was because others gave up and looped out of the queue.

The five minute trek to Laniakea (Turtle Beach, which causes the congestion) took 50 minutes.

It was slow at Pupukea too. Very slow. Another 10 minutes of delay at the single traffic light by Foodland for a total of one hour extra time to reach Romy's Shrimp Shack where we had to wait 40 minutes in line to order, and another 40 minutes to get the food ready for pick up at around 3:15 PM.

And that's my 24 hours of three bad things.

Thankfully all my first world problems summed up to six or seven hours of delays, a cracked windshield, a bike tire that needs a new tube, and somewhat elevated blood pressure.  It can get a lot worse, so I'll take these and move on!

Amid Funding Woes, Rail Officials Say Cost of Killing Project Could Be $3B

Quoted in Rick Daysog's story about HART rail not having enough funding.

Rail critics don't dispute the $3 billion shutdown costs – they just say completing the project will cost much more than that [the $3 billion suggested by HART.]

"That's really where the math begins to fall apart," said University of Hawaii Engineering Professor Panos Prevedouros.

"You would need $7 billion to $10 billion to get to Ala Moana. ... Even in the worst-case scenario of abandoning the trains, the fixed guideway could still be used for a bus rapid transit system."

Off camera I offered this commentary:

We need to ignore the drama by mayor Caldwell and the hysteria of council member Pine. The rail has GET funding to 2027 and the ability to float bonds for emergency cash. They are crying wolf to take advantage of the fact that the local economy is booming.

What do you mean they need to satisfy the FTA? The FTA is co-responsible for this massive failure. They need to be sued, not appeased.

Hawaii Preparation for North Korea Nuke Attack far from Complete

Please to see Fox News reporter Malia Zimmerman and be part of her on-site research for this important story.

“The worst thing people can do is to take the freeway. They should shelter in place nearby,” said Panos Prevedouros, a world-renowned transit expert and professor of engineering at the University of Hawaii.

Dumb and Dumber: Why Honolulu Should Abandon Rail

Quoted in Dr. Randy Roth's and Cliff Slater's opinion in Honolulu Civil Beat: Dumb and Dumber: Why Honolulu Should Abandon Rail.

The city tells us that rail can be taken all the way to Ala Moana Center for $10 billion. Panos Prevedouros, chairman of the University of Hawaii Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering, forecasts $13 billion.

If you believe the city, that additional cost of not stopping now would be $6 billion.  If you believe Dr. Prevedouros, it would be $9 billion. All to get a 1 percent traffic reduction?

I like their conclusion:

It is dumb to be out of pocket $4 billion and have nothing worthwhile to show for it. It is even dumber to spend another $6 billion to $9 billion for a 1 percent improvement in traffic at an annual financial cost of $130 million and permanent harm to our environment. That’s really dumb.

Businesses Worried as Emergency Repair Work Begins on Pensacola Street

Quoted on KHON Elyssa Arevalo's story on emergency culvert lanes that reduce street width from 3 or 4 lanes down to one...

According to Panos Prevedouros, a professor of civil engineering at the University of Hawaii, “they should have a minimum life of 30 years, not much maintenance, but anywhere between 30 and 50 years, they ought to be replaced.”

Prevedouros says there could be more culverts nearby that will eventually need repairs.

“Some of them are susceptible because Kakaako part of the time it’s under the water horizon [water table], so a lot of them are under conditions that they lead to deterioration, faster deterioration,” he said.

Red Light Cameras Could Soon Be a Reality in Hawaii, but Major Concerns Remain

On April 7, KHON's Alexander Zannes reported on the proposed red light camera law to be enacted in Hawaii. I'm quoted as follows in his report.

Panos Prevedouros, Chair of the Dept. of Civil and Environmental Engineering at UH says a typical yellow light is three seconds, followed by a full second of red. “But some places they allow you to take the three seconds but then once the extra second of all red comes up they give you a ticket, which is by engineering standard illegal so the possibility of cheating is very much there.”

According to AAA most red light camera studies do show reductions in traffic crashes, cutting down on t-bone type crashes.

But to go with that reduction, comes a rise in rear end collisions, and Prevodouros says the cameras don’t affect accidents caused by distracted driving, or people that are intoxicated. “So no matter how many threats you put with red light camera etc. that’s not going to solve it because at that time you’re not paying attention.”

City draws the line to thwart speedsters along busy Aiea road

Quoted in a story by Alexander Zannes in the Channel 2 News (KHON2) on narrower lanes for neighborhood streets, as follows.

Panos Prevedouros, chair of the Dept. of Civil and Environmental Engineering at the University of Hawaii says is a proven method to reduce speed, “In general I will tell you that if it is a neighborhood street, narrow lanes to a point are actually good at controlling the speed, again you have to be careful of wiggle room and having sideswipes if they overdo it.”

State reviewing procedures after fiery Atlanta bridge collapse

Interviewed for Hawaii News Now story on State reviewing procedures after fiery Atlanta bridge collapse by Allison Blair.

• "The hodgepodge of activity that we have under the freeway overpass, it's not appropriate," said Panos Prevedouros, Chairman of the U.H. Civil Engineering Department
• Prevedouros says the combination of trash, vehicles, tires and tanks could be disastrous if fire broke out.
• In 2016, firefighters responded to seven rubbish fires in the area. Fire department officials say all were small, with no damage or serious injuries reported. 
• "It takes a really long time. A five minute fire cannot bring a bridge down," said Prevedouros.
• But a fire burning at an extremely high temperature, for an extended period of time, can weaken the metal rebar that supports the concrete and cause a collapse. Prevedouros says its rare, but it's also why you shouldn't store a lot of combustible material underneath the viaduct.
• Hawaii News Now asked Prevedouros if what happened in Atlanta could happen here, with the viaduct in its current state. Prevedouros said "potentially."
• The fire department doesn't inspect state property, but said it would provide recommendations to the Department of Transportation if it was asked to.
• Transportation department officials declined to be interviewed for this story but said bridge inspections happen every two years, and that inspectors will be reminded to check for combustible materials. 

In this episode of Moving Hawaii Forward, Tim Apicella welcomes Dr. Panos Prevedouros, Professor of Transportation and Chairman of the Civil Engineering Department of the University of Hawaii (UH Manoa), to cover a variety of topics ranging from the Honolulu rail boondoggle, Hoopili traffic impacts, smart city street intersections and rapid transit.

Being Hyptonized by HART? Transportation Insights with Panos Prevedouros

HART on Fox News

I was included in the Fox News story featured today (March 17, 2017) about Honolulu's rail project.

"Honolulu's rail transit project is years behind schedule and billions over budget;" William La Jeunesse reports from Hawaii...

Troubled transit project a taxpayer boondoggle in paradise?

There is another, longer version that includes Pres. Trump:

How your tax dollars are being wasted on a railway in Hawaii

Vehicle Taxation by Mileage -- California Simulation

At a recent ASCE* web discussion board the subject was VMT taxation which is scheme where the usage of roads (mileage or Vehicle Miles of Travel or VMT) is used as a base to collect highway taxes in addition to or instead of the fuel taxes.

I'll discuss the pros and cons at another time. There are many and quite complicated pros and cons because of the means and technologies involved, the rates involved and of course the "big brother" syndrome, all which open a Pandora's box of social, political and taxation implications.

Meanwhile a user on the board posted a number of interesting pictures of his simulated VMT highway tax collection along with a sample bill, as shown below.

Clearly, the system knows the driver's exact route, his speed compliance and provides ratings for his braking and cornering performance. Too much info in the hands of the government, right?

In California they still exempt electric vehicles from taxes, but part of the the VMT tax justification is to address the disparity of EVs using highways but paying no fuel tax. This is another controversy.

An overarching question is this: Is a complex system for VMT tax collection and the necessary big government behind its oversight and administration worth it? How much of the extra taxes will actually wind up spent of highway maintenance and improvement?


(*) American Society of Civil Engineers 

2017 Honolulu Rail: Advice to the Legislature

As the Hawaii Legislature is debating yet another round of requests by the "on time and on budget but no accountability in sight" mayor of Honolulu to extend the General Excise Tax Surcharge for rail, I offer these comments:

• The best option since the expected costs for rail's construction surpassed $7 billion was to stop and demolish it. But that's a political non starter for the current regime.

• The second best option to avoid a $10+ billion dollar hole is to stop the rail at Middle Street. This should be doable at a cost of about $8 billion. The Middle St. station is at the intermodal center of Honolulu, thus rail can seamlessly connect to a BRT circulator (Kalihi, Chinatown, downtown), and express buses to UH and Waikiki.

• The recently floated Middle Street to UH on-street light rail option will get us past a $15 billion cost and will result in heavy in-town congestion and many accidents. In some places, the lane loss will be severe because of the need for space for stations. Honolulu is the most lane deficient city over one million population in the U.S. (e.g., lane miles per capita).

• A rail system cannot operate without a rail yard. Mayor Mufi Hannemann started the rail out west because he could not find space for an in-town rail yard. Where's the space for a light rail yard anywhere between Middle St. and UH? We can't put it at Middle Street because the revised sea level rise and tsunami exposure maps have placed it inside an inundation zone.

• Very few commuters will choose the proposed on-street light rail in town because car, taxi and Uber is door to door service and over twice as fast. Note that the rail EIS clearly states that in year 2030 with rail, all trips between Aiea and Ala Moana  will be faster by car than by rail. I should add that there is nothing that light rail will do in town that BRT would not do better with more flexibility, and cheaper.

The Legislature should not approve any extensions of the GET and it should pass a bill directing the city to handle current and future deficits with its own resources. This offers hope for some accountability and cost containment. The Legislature should also reduce the state share of the GET from 10% to 2%. These are the only reasonable actions by politicians who claim that care for the people.

2015 Traffic Accident Map of Honolulu

This is an interesting and useful result of an unofficial public-private partnership where the City and County of Honolulu provided a database of redacted accident records with geographic identification data and a private firm used geographic information system (GIS) expertise to provide a depiction and summary of these data by location. The 2015 Traffic Accident Map of Honolulu by the Law firm of Davis Levin Livingston lets one quickly identify traffic black spots.

For example, the portion of their map I captured above shows that the University of Hawaii area is generally light in crashes. Punahou Street near the freeway has a moderate amount of crashes. The set of blocks surrounding and including Ala Moana Cednter, one of the nation's largest shopping centers, is by far Hawaii's largest black spot, although, I guestimate that most of the reported crashes there are of low severity and the area depicted is of relatively low risk.

One must keep in mind , that high accident spots are not necessarily high risk or high danger spots. As you'd expect, locations with high traffic are also high crash and accident spots. Only if we divide the number of crashes by the amount of traffic occurring in a typical day we can get a better representation of risk.

For example, Location A has recorded 1 crash and gets an average daily traffic (ADT) of 10,000 whereas location B has recorded 8 crashes and gets an average daily traffic (ADT) of 100,000. In this case, B has a higher number of crashes but A has a relatively higher risk for crashes.