The Star Advertiser published on Monday, May 16, 2011 results from a recent simple poll conducted by Ward Research. The results are remarkable. They speak volumes of the public's desperation for relief from traffic congestion and since this is the only project on the table, they barely are going for it. If asked, most would tell you that they want rail so that the other people can use it. Less than 5% of commuters will switch to it. However, the survey missed the opportunity to ask about this.
The 50.6% majority of the 2008 elections has been reduced to 49%. Incredibly, the ratio of Yes/No in 2008 was 1.10 and the ratio of Yes/No in the Star Advertiser survey is 1.09! This is devastating for the Honolulu rail lobby.
Compared to 2008, the pro-rail folks got a pro-rail President. They got Oberstar to fly over Oahu on a helicopter and proclaim it a good project. They spent millions in mass media ads and monthly mailers to households. The Council had multiple junkets to rail cities. Senator Inouye, Congresswoman Hirono, US DOT Secretary LaHood and Federal Transit administrator Rogoff descended to Honolulu last month and promised (again) approvals and monies. They got the union and special interests constantly harping rail everywhere including being on the agenda at almost every monthly meeting at Neighborhood Boards. Result?
Any desirable project with such arsenal of weapons would have had over two thirds of the public supporting it. Rail got only 49%. And, from the same survey, only 12% believe the city's cost estimates!
Has the project reached a tipping point? The project is beyond its tipping point to destruction. The tipping point came in 2010. Let me explain: In order to succeed, mega-projects (defined as any project over one half billion dollars) need a major champion with decision making power and a lot of money. In our case the champion was Hannemann and the money was the Congress.
In 2010 Hannemann was trounced, and the TEA party made it widely known that the US is in deep debt. And they helped change the control of Congress from liberal to conservative. Then Abercrombie revealed that the state had a $1.5 Billion debt. Then Congress obliterated President Obama's high speed rail and cut many new infrastructure projects. Rail New Starts were cut by 20% to just $1.6 Billion in FY11. We are well beyond the tipping point when it comes to new rail projects.
The irrelevant person in all this is our one issue mayor who as recently as yesterday issued an announcement proclaiming that everything is dandy.(1) Let's not forget that jokes are his strength.
The only unfortunate thing is that I and all the anti-rail groups never had the funds and media support needed to present our points on a equal basis. It is very satisfying to see that long before a successful lawsuit we are clearly achieving the stoppage of this disastrous project.
Note (1): MAYOR SETS THE RECORD STRAIGHT ON RAIL PROJECT FINANCING
http://www1.honolulu.gov/refs/csd/publiccom/honnews10/mayorsetstherecordstraightonrailprojectfinancing.htm
Monday, May 16, 2011
Saturday, May 14, 2011
Honolulu's Special Interests Enrichment
The price tag for preparation of the Honolulu rapid transit project’s environmental impact statement was originally $86 million but has since bulged to $156 million, a City spokesman confirmed today. The current value is $156,211,000 and it is due to expire July 11 of this year. Read full article in Hawaii Reporter.
This does not include the cost of the Alternatives Analysis which was in the order of $20 Million.
Recall that in 2007 Tampa opened 10 miles of elevated reversible toll lanes ($1.50 toll per trip). Planning, design, and construction were completed in seven years for a total cost of $320 Million. In comparison, the Honolulu Rail Gang will spend $320 Million for planning, design, lobbying and PR, and 90% of it comes from local taxes.
This does not include the cost of the Alternatives Analysis which was in the order of $20 Million.
Recall that in 2007 Tampa opened 10 miles of elevated reversible toll lanes ($1.50 toll per trip). Planning, design, and construction were completed in seven years for a total cost of $320 Million. In comparison, the Honolulu Rail Gang will spend $320 Million for planning, design, lobbying and PR, and 90% of it comes from local taxes.
Wednesday, May 11, 2011
Wind Turbines on Fire
I doubt that The Blue Planet Foundation would use any of these wind turbine images for its letterhead. Perhaps its advocacy should also be commensurate to the facts.Monday, May 9, 2011
Electricity Travels at the Speed of Light. State PUC Is Sightly Slower.
On December 26, 2008, an island-wide outage occurred on Oahu during a severe lightning storm that resulted in a loss of electric service to HECO customers ranging from approximately 7 to 20 hours.
On January 12, 2009, the PUC initiated an investigation of the outage.
In March 2009, HECO submitted an outage report prepared by its expert consultant, which concluded that the island-wide outage was triggered by lightning strikes.
In January 2010, the Consumer Advocate submitted its Statement of Position that HECO could not have anticipated or prevented the outage through reasonable measures and could not have reasonably shortened the outage and restored power more quickly to customers. The Consumer Advocate further stated that penalties should not be assessed for the outage, but recommended that numerous studies be performed with the objective of preventing or minimizing the scope and duration of future power outages.
As of May 9, 2011, the PUC's investigation of the 2008 outage is still open.
On January 12, 2009, the PUC initiated an investigation of the outage.
In March 2009, HECO submitted an outage report prepared by its expert consultant, which concluded that the island-wide outage was triggered by lightning strikes.
In January 2010, the Consumer Advocate submitted its Statement of Position that HECO could not have anticipated or prevented the outage through reasonable measures and could not have reasonably shortened the outage and restored power more quickly to customers. The Consumer Advocate further stated that penalties should not be assessed for the outage, but recommended that numerous studies be performed with the objective of preventing or minimizing the scope and duration of future power outages.
As of May 9, 2011, the PUC's investigation of the 2008 outage is still open.
Friday, May 6, 2011
Portland's "High Capacity Transit" Success... All 2.3% of It!
Interesting excerpts of an actual evaluation of Portland's MAX light rail in 2011:
- High Capacity Transit is desirable when there are large numbers of people moving to geographically constrained destinations within a short period of time – such as commuters traveling to downtown San Francisco or midtown Manhattan. (Nothing in common with Honolulu.)
- MAX was supposed to be a “catalyst for transit-oriented development” (TOD) at Cascade Station near the airport, but IKEA, Target and Best Buy are built away from the MAX stop and serviced by large parking lots. RESULT: 2.2% use MAX. (This will happen to the Ewa mall by Bishop Estate, Pearl Highlands, Pearl Ridge and Ala Moana Center.)
- Gresham Civic Station is a suburban location that has been intensively planned for more than 25 years, with expectations that this would be a showcase for suburban TOD. The entire area was bare dirt when MAX opened in 1986. Eventually, much of the site was built-out. RESULT: Although there are hundreds of apartments close to the newest MAX station at Gresham Civic Center, only 2.25% the tenants actually use light rail. (This will happen to Ho'opili and other pie in the sky TODs.)
- The two-day observations at Cascade Station were perhaps the most revealing in terms of assessing the oft-made claim that light rail is a “catalyst for development.” Light rail is not only irrelevant to the commercial success of Cascade Station, it is a barrier to continued development due to density requirements near rail stations. (Maybe Honolulu developers will wake up to reality.)
- For comparison, the highest-throughput mass transit facility in America is a simple busway managed by the Port Authority of New York-New Jersey (PANYNJ). On weekdays between 6:00 a.m.-10:00 a.m., PANYNJ operates a 2.5 mi eastbound contra-flow Exclusive Bus Lane (XBL) along westbound Route 495 to Lincoln Tunnel from the New Jersey Turnpike. The XBL carries 1,700 buses and 62,000 passengers each morning, on average, saving about 15-20 minutes in travel time. This averages about 1 bus every 8 seconds for a 4-hour period, with roughly 37 seated passengers per bus.
Wednesday, May 4, 2011
Got Wind? YES. Got Power? NO.
Press Release by First Wind:
Honolulu, HI—March 24, 2011—First Wind, an independent U.S.-based wind energy company, and Hawaiian Electric Company held a ribbon-cutting ceremony today to mark the commencement of commercial operations of the Kahuku Wind project. State, local and community leaders gathered at the project site on Oahu’s North Shore to recognize the environmental and economic benefits of the 30 MW project, which features an innovative battery storage system and has the capacity to generate enough renewable energy to power up to 7,700 Oahu homes each year.
My investigation five weeks later (April 30, 2011)
A picture is worth a thousand words... watch this:
(Alternate link if this video does not load)
The bottom line is that both HECO and government got it wrong. Even when wind is present, the turbines are doing nothing.
Honolulu, HI—March 24, 2011—First Wind, an independent U.S.-based wind energy company, and Hawaiian Electric Company held a ribbon-cutting ceremony today to mark the commencement of commercial operations of the Kahuku Wind project. State, local and community leaders gathered at the project site on Oahu’s North Shore to recognize the environmental and economic benefits of the 30 MW project, which features an innovative battery storage system and has the capacity to generate enough renewable energy to power up to 7,700 Oahu homes each year.
My investigation five weeks later (April 30, 2011)
A picture is worth a thousand words... watch this:
(Alternate link if this video does not load)
The bottom line is that both HECO and government got it wrong. Even when wind is present, the turbines are doing nothing.
Monday, April 25, 2011
Problems Big and Small. Sensible Solutions for All.
[This is an enriched version of my TEA 2011 speech at Hawaii Capitol on April 15, 2011]
We got big Problems. So does everybody else… states, the whole country, other countries. What we need is Sensible Solutions. Instead we get more government solutions and more taxes.
Pension accounts for city and state government employees will be broke soon-- they face huge account deficits and Hawaii leads the way in this. Their solution? Tax pensions or bury their head in the sand. The sensible solution is to raise the retirement age to 70 years of age.
Homelessness. Their solution? Build more public housing. The sensible solution is to take care of the homeless needs and provide transitional housing. Transition the homeless back to normal life. Do not warehouse them. Empower, consolidate and better organize non-profits that care for the homeless. Set limits on the benefits that the homeless receive.
Power. We pay the most for electric power. We complain about the price of gasoline but it’s only 15% more expensive than the mainland average. Our electricity is about 300% more expensive. Whose fault is this?
The legislature's with their "green" objectives that put into effect without any cost analysis, the PUC's controls, and HECO's monopoly. The monopoly buys wind and solar power for 15c per KWh and sells it to ratepayers for 30 to 40 cents.
The sensible solution is to deregulate. Within 20 years we can have a competitive energy market with solar, geothermal, coal, OTEC, biomass, algae, etc. distributed power providers.
Planning is a big problem. We have the Oahu Metropolitan Organization (OMPO) that coordinates all transportation plans in the city and county of Honolulu. But the key people on the all-important policy committee are the Transportation Committee chairs of the Senate and the House. For many years they are both from Maui. So the county of Maui decides the transportation plans of the county of Honolulu. This absurdity is going on for a decade now and has lead to gross miss-allocation of funds with Honolulu at the losing end.
Traffic is a big problem. We need roads to move over 90% of the people who use vehicles. Instead government plans to waste 6 billion dollars to help the 1% of people on the rail. And cutback TheBus in the process.
TheHandiVan is a costly service. Its archaic and inflexible booking system requires 1 or 2 day advance reservations. This inconvenience costs $35 per rider. TheHandiVan services can be fully substituted by private modified vans of which there are several on island in private transportation. They provide quick and courteous service, local jobs and a modest profit at about $25 per ride. TheHandiVan is proof that Sensible and Government do not go together.
Waste Management is a problem. Their solution? Business as usual: Landfills and expensive, fake recycling. Best solution? Privatization and incentives for remanufacturing. The private sector can deal with landfill issues, burning and recycling. Or sending trash to mainland or Asia. Leave environmental requirements as is, and let the private sector find the solution set including the remanufacture of recycled paper, plastic, fats, oils and lubricants.
Pavements and potholes. Their solution? Neglect, followed by expensive contracts and sloppy pothole plugging by city crews. The sensible solution is to go on routine pavement maintenance so that our local refineries can plan their asphalt production. (I understand one of them has quit making asphalt because of the unpredictability of demand.) Sign 10 year contracts with quality guarantees and price discounts. Get the City out of the pothole repair business.
Sensible Solutions have these basic ingredients: Less centralization, less taxation, less regulation and greater private sector participation.
We got big Problems. So does everybody else… states, the whole country, other countries. What we need is Sensible Solutions. Instead we get more government solutions and more taxes.
Pension accounts for city and state government employees will be broke soon-- they face huge account deficits and Hawaii leads the way in this. Their solution? Tax pensions or bury their head in the sand. The sensible solution is to raise the retirement age to 70 years of age.
Homelessness. Their solution? Build more public housing. The sensible solution is to take care of the homeless needs and provide transitional housing. Transition the homeless back to normal life. Do not warehouse them. Empower, consolidate and better organize non-profits that care for the homeless. Set limits on the benefits that the homeless receive.
Power. We pay the most for electric power. We complain about the price of gasoline but it’s only 15% more expensive than the mainland average. Our electricity is about 300% more expensive. Whose fault is this?
The legislature's with their "green" objectives that put into effect without any cost analysis, the PUC's controls, and HECO's monopoly. The monopoly buys wind and solar power for 15c per KWh and sells it to ratepayers for 30 to 40 cents.
The sensible solution is to deregulate. Within 20 years we can have a competitive energy market with solar, geothermal, coal, OTEC, biomass, algae, etc. distributed power providers.
Planning is a big problem. We have the Oahu Metropolitan Organization (OMPO) that coordinates all transportation plans in the city and county of Honolulu. But the key people on the all-important policy committee are the Transportation Committee chairs of the Senate and the House. For many years they are both from Maui. So the county of Maui decides the transportation plans of the county of Honolulu. This absurdity is going on for a decade now and has lead to gross miss-allocation of funds with Honolulu at the losing end.
Traffic is a big problem. We need roads to move over 90% of the people who use vehicles. Instead government plans to waste 6 billion dollars to help the 1% of people on the rail. And cutback TheBus in the process.
TheHandiVan is a costly service. Its archaic and inflexible booking system requires 1 or 2 day advance reservations. This inconvenience costs $35 per rider. TheHandiVan services can be fully substituted by private modified vans of which there are several on island in private transportation. They provide quick and courteous service, local jobs and a modest profit at about $25 per ride. TheHandiVan is proof that Sensible and Government do not go together.
Waste Management is a problem. Their solution? Business as usual: Landfills and expensive, fake recycling. Best solution? Privatization and incentives for remanufacturing. The private sector can deal with landfill issues, burning and recycling. Or sending trash to mainland or Asia. Leave environmental requirements as is, and let the private sector find the solution set including the remanufacture of recycled paper, plastic, fats, oils and lubricants.
Pavements and potholes. Their solution? Neglect, followed by expensive contracts and sloppy pothole plugging by city crews. The sensible solution is to go on routine pavement maintenance so that our local refineries can plan their asphalt production. (I understand one of them has quit making asphalt because of the unpredictability of demand.) Sign 10 year contracts with quality guarantees and price discounts. Get the City out of the pothole repair business.
Sensible Solutions have these basic ingredients: Less centralization, less taxation, less regulation and greater private sector participation.
Friday, April 22, 2011
Flywheels
Every vehicle on the road has a flywheel. It smooths out the fuel explosions in each cylinder and makes gear change possible.
An over-sized flywheel can propel a light vehicle but due to the constant speed transitions in regular traffic this application is problematic.
A "mega-sized" flywheel can become a formidable energy storage device that can avert blackouts, facilitate the smart grid and even store energy from daytime production (solar) for nighttime consumption.
This Washington Post article... Reinventing the (Fly)Wheel contains a lot of useful development including the first in the nation 20 MW electricity power plant located in Massachusetts.
An over-sized flywheel can propel a light vehicle but due to the constant speed transitions in regular traffic this application is problematic.
A "mega-sized" flywheel can become a formidable energy storage device that can avert blackouts, facilitate the smart grid and even store energy from daytime production (solar) for nighttime consumption.
This Washington Post article... Reinventing the (Fly)Wheel contains a lot of useful development including the first in the nation 20 MW electricity power plant located in Massachusetts.
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