A Student's 3 Good Questions About Honolulu Rail

I receive about a dozen requests for interviews from students in Hawaii, mostly from the Univ. of Hawaii, working on papers or presentations about Honolulu's rail. Some of them are pure "make work" for me as the student lists 10 to 20 questions and expect me to write their paper for them. This recent inquiry from a high schooler was brief and on point. His request and my response below.

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Dear Mr. Prevedouros,

I am a student at ‘Iolani School and would like to ask questions and gather information about the Hawaii rail system and its impact on traffic congestion. I read the transcript of your interview with Mr. Akina and read the article you wrote about the rail, and wanted to understand more about your perspective on the Hawaii rail system. Below are a few questions I would appreciate your insight on:

1. As many people know, you were opposed to the rail. You mentioned many red flags that you believed were going to be problematic. Now that the rail has opened, what are the top three indicators that proved you were right? 
2. Do you know where I can find data that shows whether or not the rail has succeeded in diminishing traffic as was promised? I haven’t been able to locate any statistics that prove the money was well-spent or that the investment was worth it for tax-payers (if that is possible)?
3. Considering your past criticisms on the rail, do you see any potential for the rail to become successful in the long run? And if so, what changes would be necessary to achieve that goal?

Thank you for taking the time to read and answer my questions!

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Here are brief answers to your important questions, but first, I should clarify that as a conscientious engineer, I oppose stupid infrastructure proposals, not rail as a mode for metropolitan transportation. In fact, in my textbook, I recommend metro rail for dense communities over 5 million people; and high speed rail for connecting large urban centers located 100 to 500 miles apart.

1. Exorbitant costs for what it is (length and capacity) and very low ridership. The costs shouldn't have exceeded $6.4 billion but it'll exceed $12 billion (double or more than my high estimate of $6.4; at the time Oahu voted for it, its cost was stated at $4.6 billion). I also estimated that, when completed, rail won't carry the 105,000 daily riders forecast by the city-paid consultants, but up to 50,000. Post-Covid, 30,000 looks like the new maximum. So... the cost per passenger will be almost 6 times higher than originally planned!
2. Presently the rail carries 3,000 person trips (riders) a day. Its daily productivity is equivalent to 6 to 10 city buses, so its effect on traffic is minuscule and imperceptible. Recall that the city's EIS stated that the weekday number of trips on Oahu exceed 4 million. If you divide my estimate of rail trips by that you get... 30000/4000000=0.75%... that's less than 1% of Oahu's trips served by the rail, so even when rail is completed, its effect on traffic congestion will be practically zero.
3. Only after pigs fly! Unfortunately, until it is demolished or replaced, it will be a constant and major drag for Oahu's economy, i.e., a constant loss of taxpayer money to keep it going. Fares, at best, will cover 10% of its operating expenses and none of its construction and replacement or renovation costs that come due every 20 years or so.  After 30 years of operation, the delayed refurbishment of BART cost nearly $15 billion!

The Riveting Events of Ms. Chao's Drowning in a Tesla X

Click for the full article by Michael L. Sena 

Wiki: Ms. Angela Chao was chairwoman and chief executive of her family's shipping business, the Foremost Group, which operates a global fleet of bulk carrier ships. The Chaos have a net worth of $14.2 billion, according to Forbes.

<quote>This incident became international news for two reasons: 1) the person who drove the car was well known and very wealthy; 2) the person was the sister of Elaine Chao, who is both a former U.S. Secretary of Transportation and the wife of the current U.S. Senate Minority Leader, Mitch McConnell. The fact that the car was a TESLA added to the interest because the reason the car ended up in the water was linked to TESLA's unconventional gear-shifting design.

Approximately 400 people die each year in the U.S. in car accidents involving vehicle submersion. That is, the car enters the water and the person cannot get out before the inside of the car fills up with water and the person drowns. Four hundred is around 1% of all U.S. traffic-related deaths. We don't know how many of those deaths were intentional, or 'autocide' to use the official term, with the driver using the vehicle and water rather than intentionally colliding with an oncoming car or purposely steering their car into a tree. What we do know is that it is effective, because once a car is in the water and sinking, it is not easy for the driver or occupants to get out of the car, especially with most newer-model vehicles that have power windows and automatic door locks. That's the problem. A great deal of care is dedicated by car designers to how we enter and exit cars under normal conditions, and doors and windows are controlled, but cars are not designed for easy exit once they have entered into and are submerged under water, as the Angela Chao incident illustrates. 

It is not often that a car accident is described in such detail as the one involving Angela Chao. The entire event had many witnesses as the drama played out over two hours between when the car entered the water and when the victim was pronounced dead. Among the witnesses was Ms. Chao herself, who made a phone call to a friend as soon as the car was in the water, and she continued to talk to this person for eight minutes, relating the status of the water level rising inside the car and providing details of how the car ended up in the water. What we know about the incident is what was released by the police in a public report. Ms. Chao had invited seven close friends to the 4,500-acre ranch owned by her and her husband for a weekend party to celebrate the Chinese New Year. 

The party took place in a cottage on the ranch some distance from their home. The cottage is in close proximity to a pond. At around 11:37 p.m., security footage captured Chao walking alone and unsteadily to her vehicle, a Tesla Model X, wrapped in a blanket and holding a phone in her right hand. As she attempted a three point turn, the vehicle suddenly "shot backwards" down an embankment (or over a retaining wall; there are two variants of the story) and into the pond at 11.38. A toxicology report, ordered as part of the investigation into her death, revealed that Chao had a blood alcohol concentration of 0.233, well above the legal driving limit of 0.08 in Texas. Chao called one of her friends who was at the party at 11:42 p.m. At this point she had not followed the first rule of surviving a water-related accident, and the call violated the second rule.

Rule #1: When a car is entering the water, open a window and prepare to exit the vehicle as soon as it hits the water. The vehicle's electrical system should continue to function for at least a few minutes, so even electric window controls should work.

Rule #2: Don't waste precious time calling the emergency services until you are out of the vehicle. They won't get to you in time to keep you from drowning. A car can fill up with water in 60 seconds; the Tesla Model X took eight minutes.

The vehicle at this point was apparently floating but sinking slowly during the eight-minute phone call. Chao told her friend she had put the car in reverse instead of drive—a mistake she had made before, she told her friend—causing the vehicle to go over an embankment and into the pond. She told her friend that the water was rising inside the car, and she was going to die.

Someone (Another friend at the party?) called 911. Emergency units arrived at 12.23. a.m. We don't know if the inside of the car had filled with water at this point. Rescuers stood on top of the submerged vehicle and tried unsuccessfully to enter the vehicle, attempting to break the windows with a pole. A tow truck arrived, but the Tesla was over 20 meters from the shore, too far into the pond for the truck's chains to reach it. Additional emergency responders then arrived with diving gear and managed to break a side window, extracting Chao from the vehicle at approximately 12:56 a.m. EMS responders performed "advanced life support" for 43 minutes in an attempt to resuscitate her, but she was ultimately pronounced dead at 1:40 a.m. <end quote>

What Are the Best things Drivers Can Do to Improve their Driving Record?

My brief expert opinion in WalletHub:

Why is it important for drivers to check their Driving Record?

Much like people's credit scores and records, drivers need to inspect their driving records and be aware of relevant laws. There may be errors in the record that need correction. Also, incidents that occurred many years ago may still be listed although applicable law requires them to be expunged after, say, five years.

How often should drivers check their Driving Record?

Drivers should inspect their driving record if there is a change in their insurance premium if they plan to shop for and change insurance carriers, or every five years at the latest.

What is the best thing to do if drivers see an error on their Driving Record?

Drivers need to contact the DMV or relevant authority to request a correction and inform their auto insurance carrier of the error.

What are the best things drivers can do to improve their Driving Record?

Traffic safety clinics and defensive driving schools are good places to start improving a problematic driving record. Issues with drugs and alcohol must be dealt with; at a minimum, alternatives need to be found to avoid impaired driving at all times. Drivers with a propensity to speed would benefit by joining car racing clubs which provide safe ways to drive at high speed at race tracks and other venues off the public roads.

Is it Fair for Car Insurance Companies to Consider Gender, Age and Driver Occupation?

My brief expert opinion in WalletHub:

Insurance companies are under substantial strain from increasing losses due to many reasons such as extreme weather (e.g., floods that damage vehicles), increasing number of crashes and fatalities, increasing rates of distracted and impaired drivers (e.g., more states have legalized marijuana), etc.

These losses have necessitated increases in premiums. A fairer distribution of increases is done by assessing risk factors and assessing higher premiums for higher-risk drivers. Young male drivers and occupations with driving as a major part of the job (e.g., Uber, delivery workers) are examples of groups associated with higher crash involvement rates.

I have a good example of risk-based car insurance premiums in my own household. My spouse and my daughter have their own car and insurance. Both are insured by the same insurance company, and both drive 2018 model compact cars of similar market value. My spouse is a white-collar worker in her late 40s. My daughter is a 21-year-old college senior; her premium is 65% higher than her mom's!

2023's Greenest Cities in America

 My commentary in WalletHub's ranking of US green cities.

Honolulu ranked 2nd out of 100. Reno did well at 33.

Should cities invest in going green? What are the benefits?

Environmental and transportation solutions need to be tailored to an area's specific characteristics. Solutions for Tokyo are likely less suitable for Chicago. Cities with acute pollution issues should focus on smart city mitigations targeting pollution, such as electrification of bus fleets and incentives for EVs. Cities with acute traffic congestion should focus on smart city congestion mitigation, such as adaptive traffic signal management and intelligent time-dependent road pricing.

What policies or investments offer the biggest bang for the buck?

Smart traffic management for both arterial streets and freeways is the most common low-hanging fruit with moderate costs and substantial congestion and pollution reduction. Priority lanes and traffic signal preemption for Bus Rapid Transit are cost-effective smart city improvements for public transport.

How can state and local authorities attract renewable energy companies and other green businesses?

By incentivizing the electrification of transportation, substantial new demand is generated which creates a need for power supply, which in turn, makes the establishment of new renewable energy suppliers welcome. A conducive framework for power purchasing agreements needs to be in place.

What are some easy ways individuals can go green without much cost or effort?

Several smart home solutions are affordable and effective in reducing power and fuel consumption. Hybrid light-duty vehicles are presently the most cost-effective choice for commuting and highway travel. Unfortunately, recycling is more of a feel-good initiative than an effective green option given that less than 10% of what is put into recycling collections is actually recycled, reused, or repurposed.

In evaluating the greenest cities, what are the top five indicators?

A generic list may serve as a guideline, but each city needs to focus on its most acute issues and deploy smart solutions that its taxpayers can afford, for mitigations.

Consumer Reports Can Be Wrong!

CONSUMER REPORTS: Can the Grid Handle EVs? Yes! 

They should really study this series: The EV transition at scale poses daunting challenges

 Dear Chris,

The answer in your blog is incorrect. It is predicated on:

"...Americans drive approximately 2.9 trillion miles a year,..." and "...The average efficiency of all 20 comes to 3.1 miles per kilowatt hour. "

Totals and averages can be grossly misleading and this is the case here.

Total power generation capacity may match total EV KWh demand over the course of a year. But this totally ignores diurnal patterns and Peak Demand periods! The grid often has a hard time providing enough power for the usual demands plus a/c on hot and humid days.

Some locations have spare capacity, some are nearly maxed out (California, Hawaii, many others), and the US grid is far from being interconnected to cover demand deficits.

This question can be answered with reasonable confidence only at the local/regional level based on historical patterns of daily KWh consumption, along with specific forecasts of EV in traffic by type... car, SUV, pickup, delivery truck, long distance truck.

-- 
Panos D. Prevedouros, PhD
Reno, Nevada
Past Chairman and Professor Emeritus
Civil and Environmental Engineering
University of Hawaii at Mānoa

Quick Rail Boondoggle Update

Rail boondoggles seem to multiply in the US.

• Honolulu rail is not alone at starting at under $5B in 2021, and surpassing $10B in 2020 with no ending in cost escalation, no opening date and continuously revealed construction problems (i.e., hammerhead pillar cracks) and operational problems (i.e., track switching "frogs.")

• Now Austin's rail which started at $5.8B has surpassed $10.3B while mostly incomplete.

• The pseudo high speed California HSR has surpassed $100B and is nowhere near Los Angeles or San Francisco.

Furthermore, "transit agencies nationwide are taking in less farebox revenue, with agencies recovering, on average, just 12.8 cents for every dollar they spent on operations in 2021, down from 32.3 cents in 2019." [Planetizen]

This indicates a much lower utilization and much higher resource consumption and pollution per passenger mile.

Let's build and expand more of these losers, shall we?

Why Panos Prevedouros left Hawaii

Mahalo to Dr. Keli'i Akina for the invitation and probing questions.

The state is at risk of a major natural catastrophe, he says, and its “suicidal” energy policy will just make everything worse

Hawaii’s policy mandate to go to 100% renewable energy is nothing short of suicidal.

That was the message of Panos Prevedouros, former chairman of the University of Hawaii civil engineering department, who spoke with host Keli’i Akina, president of the Grassroot Institute, on the June 22 episode of “Hawaii Together.”

Described by Akina as “one of Hawaii’s leading public intellectuals,” Prevedouros moved just last year from Honolulu, his home of 31 years, to Reno, Nevada. During his half-hour conversation with Akina, he explained why. Foremost was his concern about Hawaii’s energy policy and its relation to personal safety.

Because of its geographical isolation, he said, Hawaii needs reliable energy. In the event of a natural disaster, for example, Hawaii’s hospitals “must have reliable electricity for 10, 15, 20 days, or however long it takes for the military and other external providers of health assistance to come help a highly populated island like Oahu or Maui.”

Renewable options like wind and solar farms are not highly reliable, he said, especially since they can be totally demolished by the strong hurricane winds. Thus, Hawaii should be making reliability its top priority, even if that means using coal.

In general, Prevedouros said, Hawaii is totally unprepared for a natural disaster.

“I don’t see the [power] plants [or airports] being hardened. … Our harbors are absolutely not prepared to deal with a major surge from a hurricane or a major surge from a tsunami. Our harbors will be a complete mess. There will be cranes and they’re toppled and there will be containers all over the place.”

And when the Navy arrives from San Diego to help, he warned, “there will be nowhere for them to dock. Nobody is preparing plans to have resilience in our harbor.” 

He said the failure of Hawaii’s politicians to prepare better for a disaster is not peculiar to Hawaii.

“That’s a malaise that exists almost everywhere politically, because politicians, really, do not take a 1% to 2% risk very seriously, and plan to invest big money in that. However, unfortunately, bad luck … really catches up with these things, and we really need to protect the population.” 

Prevedouros said aside from his fears for his family’s safety, he left his beloved Hawaii because of a litany of “wrong” policy decisions.

“One wrong decision does not really change the whole picture,” he said. “There were so many wrong decisions, a litany of which, that, actually after that, I said, ‘Enough is enough.’” 

Well known as a critic of the Honolulu rail, Prevedouros said the recent proposal to stop the system a mile or so short of Ala Moana Center is “definitely a step in the right direction, but it’s not enough. They should have had the guts to stop it at Middle Street, and they probably will be forced to do something like that because now we have the other gift: inflation” — which is sure to drive up its construction costs.

To watch the entire conversation, click here.

Archegos -Theranos - Honolulu Rail: The Price of Lying

What do these three multi billion dollar failures have in common?

The repeated intentional lying about the workings and costs of each project.

Archegos (AXIOS)

The March 2021 implosion of the hedge fund-like Archegos was one for the ages, eventually costing banks like Morgan Stanley, Nomura and Credit Suisse billions of dollars.

Archegos' responses to questions were often "deceptive, false and misleading.”

It's interesting to see the banks portrayed as the victims in the saga, especially since several of them saw red flags around Archegos that made them nervous — but they stuck with him all the way down.

Theranos (Wikipedia)

By 2015, Forbes had named Holmes the youngest and wealthiest self-made female billionaire in America on the basis of a $9-billion valuation of her company. The credibility of Theranos was attributed in part to Holmes's personal connections and ability to recruit the support of influential people, including Henry Kissinger, George Shultz, Jim Mattis, and Betsy DeVos, all of whom had served or would go on to serve as U.S. presidential cabinet officials.

The decline of Theranos began in 2015, when a series of journalistic and regulatory investigations revealed doubts about the company's technology claims and whether Holmes had misled investors and the government. In 2018, the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) charged Theranos and Holmes with deceiving investors by "massive fraud" through false or exaggerated claims about the accuracy of the company's blood-testing technology.

Honolulu Rail

The project started by Mayor Mufi Hannemann as a 34 mile, $3 billion proposal in 2006 and settled into a 20 mile, $4.6 billion elevated steel-on-steel “light rail” in 2008, to be completed in 2019. At the present time, Honolulu Rail is an incomplete, underfunded 18-20 mile construction project with a year 2031 projected completion at a cost of well over $11 billion.

The project is under investigation by the US Department of Justice. There have been several allegations and instances of fraud and gross errors; two samples from 2016 and 2019:

• Change.org petition: Investigate the political corruption, fraud, and abuse involving the Honolulu Rail project.
• Suggesting that fraud may be the cause of cost overruns, City Council newcomer Heidi Tsuneyoshi is demanding a forensic audit of contracts tied to a plan to build a transit system for Honolulu. (A forensic audit was never approved by public officials.)

Similar to the multi-year lying and defrauding at Archegos and Theranos, the fraud (i.e., the irresponsible wasting of billions of taxpayer dollars) at Honolulu Rail continues unabated: “Inside the ‘frantic’ push to shorten rail and keep its federal funding -- Project officials stress that they’re still fully committed to getting rail to Ala Moana, but it’s still not clear financially how that would happen. Rail leaders are presenting a “truncated project scope” to the Federal Transit Administration in order to secure rail’s remaining federal dollars. Project officials stress that they’re still fully committed to getting rail to Ala Moana, but it’s still not clear financially how that would happen.” (Honolulu Civil Beat, April 28, 2022)