March 5, 2012 poll by Civil Beat: 55% oppose rail
Monday, March 5, 2012
Opposition to Honolulu Rail Grows to 55%
February 12, 2012 poll by HawaiiNewsNow and Honolulu Advertiser: 53% oppose rail
March 5, 2012 poll by Civil Beat: 55% oppose rail
March 5, 2012 poll by Civil Beat: 55% oppose rail
Energy, Power, Storage, Distribution, Management
These five words, Energy, Power, Storage, Distribution, Management encapsulate almost all of what's involved with powering up our daily life, production and industry.
First, we need to make an important distinction between Energy and Power. We’ve got lots of Energy. We are getting short on Power.
Roughly speaking, if we could capture 100% of one day of sunlight energy, store it and distribute it as electric power, this would cover the entire needs of today’s world for a full year.
On the other hand, Bill Gates on GatesNotes on Energy states that "All the batteries on Earth can store 10 minutes of the world's electric needs." We are very short on storage.
We’ve got enough geothermal energy in Hawaii to make us self sufficient for centuries including the production of fuels for transportation.
Two big problems are: (1) We do not have sufficient infrastructure to take Energy and make Power, and (2) once we make power, we have no means to store it for later use. The second problem makes wind, solar and other intermittent power generation methods tertiary in terms of power production.
Smart grid distribution with connected electric car batteries, capacitors and intelligent management make the incorporation of renewable intermittent power more possible, but the existing capability in terms of storage and management is limited.
Unfortunately modern high capacity batteries in hybrid and plug-in vehicles require "exotic" materials in their composition. These make them very expensive and the potential for large price reductions and very high production numbers is limited.
A fairly recent development is large liquid batteries: "MIT team makes progress toward goal of inexpensive grid-scale batteries that could help make intermittent renewable energy sources viable." The resultant spinoff company, Liquid Metal Battery Corp. has benefited from funding from the Gates Foundation.
These batteries depend on molten metal at temperatures higher than 500 C (930 F), so I was a little sceptical that large amounts of energy would be wasted in keeping the metals molten. However the authors have accounted for this in their journal publication*: "At some larger scale, the action of electric current flowing through the electrolyte could generate enough Joule heat to keep the components molten, thereby obviating the need for external heaters, as is the case with electrolytic cells producing aluminum on a commercial scale"
(*) Magnesium−Antimony Liquid Metal Battery for Stationary, Energy Storage, David J. Bradwell, Hojong Kim, Aislinn H. C. Sirk, and Donald R. Sadoway, J.Am.Chem.Soc. 2012, 134, 1895−1897.
First, we need to make an important distinction between Energy and Power. We’ve got lots of Energy. We are getting short on Power.
Roughly speaking, if we could capture 100% of one day of sunlight energy, store it and distribute it as electric power, this would cover the entire needs of today’s world for a full year.
On the other hand, Bill Gates on GatesNotes on Energy states that "All the batteries on Earth can store 10 minutes of the world's electric needs." We are very short on storage.
We’ve got enough geothermal energy in Hawaii to make us self sufficient for centuries including the production of fuels for transportation.
Two big problems are: (1) We do not have sufficient infrastructure to take Energy and make Power, and (2) once we make power, we have no means to store it for later use. The second problem makes wind, solar and other intermittent power generation methods tertiary in terms of power production.
Smart grid distribution with connected electric car batteries, capacitors and intelligent management make the incorporation of renewable intermittent power more possible, but the existing capability in terms of storage and management is limited.
Unfortunately modern high capacity batteries in hybrid and plug-in vehicles require "exotic" materials in their composition. These make them very expensive and the potential for large price reductions and very high production numbers is limited.
A fairly recent development is large liquid batteries: "MIT team makes progress toward goal of inexpensive grid-scale batteries that could help make intermittent renewable energy sources viable." The resultant spinoff company, Liquid Metal Battery Corp. has benefited from funding from the Gates Foundation.
These batteries depend on molten metal at temperatures higher than 500 C (930 F), so I was a little sceptical that large amounts of energy would be wasted in keeping the metals molten. However the authors have accounted for this in their journal publication*: "At some larger scale, the action of electric current flowing through the electrolyte could generate enough Joule heat to keep the components molten, thereby obviating the need for external heaters, as is the case with electrolytic cells producing aluminum on a commercial scale"
(*) Magnesium−Antimony Liquid Metal Battery for Stationary, Energy Storage, David J. Bradwell, Hojong Kim, Aislinn H. C. Sirk, and Donald R. Sadoway, J.Am.Chem.Soc. 2012, 134, 1895−1897.
Friday, March 2, 2012
Fiscal Prudence of a City Budget: Carlisle Edition
This list would make a great joke if it was not so costly for Honolulu residents and their descendants:
(1) Carlisle put the $5 billion sewer consent decree on the back burner (have you seen any major construction?) and made the $5 billion rail the only budget priority.
(2) Carlisle’s delaying tactics for the lawsuit filed by Cayetano et al. postponed the final hearing from November 2011 to August 2012 at a much higher cost to taxpayers. His delaying tactics will incur construction and repair costs of over $200 million.
(3) Carlisle decides to spend hundreds of millions on construction that will have to be torn down when the city loses in court. If that's not a waste of money, what is it?
(4) Carlisle claims ignorance to the fact that his city manager appointee recklessly and unilaterally suspended the city's debt ceiling of 20% even before rail had any cost overruns.
(5) Carlisle's procurement process selected Ansaldo instead of Bombardier or Sumitomo although Ansaldo offered a $241 million more costly bid. Worse yet, spare parts and know-how won't be coming from neighboring Canada or Japan (who also are good tourist customers,) but from bankrupt Italy which is literally as far away on the northern hemisphere one can get from Hawaii.
(6) Carlisle insists on starting heavy construction although the Feds have not approved a dime of construction monies and the funding agreement with the Federal Transit Administration cannot be done before October or November this year.
And to conclude Carlisle's baker's half dozen of irresponsibility:
(7) Who can forget his remark in the 2010 elections that HART "will cost us nothing?" HART's new executive director alone costs us $1 million over three years!
============
EDIT: A couple hours after I logged this post John Pritchett published his Friday Cartoon (note, Chin is the City Manager.)
(1) Carlisle put the $5 billion sewer consent decree on the back burner (have you seen any major construction?) and made the $5 billion rail the only budget priority.
(2) Carlisle’s delaying tactics for the lawsuit filed by Cayetano et al. postponed the final hearing from November 2011 to August 2012 at a much higher cost to taxpayers. His delaying tactics will incur construction and repair costs of over $200 million.
(3) Carlisle decides to spend hundreds of millions on construction that will have to be torn down when the city loses in court. If that's not a waste of money, what is it?
(4) Carlisle claims ignorance to the fact that his city manager appointee recklessly and unilaterally suspended the city's debt ceiling of 20% even before rail had any cost overruns.
(5) Carlisle's procurement process selected Ansaldo instead of Bombardier or Sumitomo although Ansaldo offered a $241 million more costly bid. Worse yet, spare parts and know-how won't be coming from neighboring Canada or Japan (who also are good tourist customers,) but from bankrupt Italy which is literally as far away on the northern hemisphere one can get from Hawaii.
(6) Carlisle insists on starting heavy construction although the Feds have not approved a dime of construction monies and the funding agreement with the Federal Transit Administration cannot be done before October or November this year.
And to conclude Carlisle's baker's half dozen of irresponsibility:
(7) Who can forget his remark in the 2010 elections that HART "will cost us nothing?" HART's new executive director alone costs us $1 million over three years!
============
EDIT: A couple hours after I logged this post John Pritchett published his Friday Cartoon (note, Chin is the City Manager.)
Monday, February 27, 2012
US Financial Crisis and Globalization
In the coming years US may suffer greatly by the very pattern that it advocated: Globalization. The US is substantially dependent on outside sources to supply industrial products, consumer products, food and energy. So far this has worked well, but the table is about to turn around.
First let's summarize the fiscal crisis in a few bullets:
First let's summarize the fiscal crisis in a few bullets:
- This is the fourth straight year that the US borrowed more than $1 trillion to support its federal government. US budget deficit will top $1.3 trillion, 8.7% of GDP. Only two European countries, Greece and Ireland, have larger budget deficits as a percent of GDP.
- US national debt now exceeds $15.3 trillion, or 102% of GDP. Only four European countries have larger national debts than US: Greece, Ireland, Portugal and Italy.
- If one adds the unfunded liabilities of Social Security and Medicare to the US official national debt, the US debt is $72 trillion, by Obama administration projections. This is more than 480% of GDP. France, the second most insolvent nation in Europe, owes 549% of GDP.
- Under more realistic projections, the US official national debt is $137 trillion or 911% of GDP. Counting both official debt and unfunded pension and health care liabilities, the most indebted nation in Europe is Greece, which owes 875% of GDP.
- 48 of 50 states have annual deficits and large long term debt. Several states have insolvent employee pension and health care trusts. Of course Hawaii is one of them.
- Many US cities are in deficit, some are at or near bankruptcy and all face major infrastructure backlogs as well as their own employee retirement shortfalls.
- Unlike the huge debt of Japan or France that is owed mostly by their own citizens, US is more like Greece. Most of its debt owned by foreign countries and external lenders.
Why is the US not at the same position as Greece? The reasons are many and they include US' vastly larger economy, vast ability to innovate, vast natural resources compared to most EU countries, vast dependency of many countries on the US consumer to buy the things they make, vast military capability, and having the US dollar as the world's main reserve currency.
This reserve currency is also US' main tool for controlling a quick financial collapse. The devaluation of the dollar would slash the debt owned to foreign interests. At the same time globalization will come back and bite the US consumer since all imports will become 30% more expensive if the greenback is devalued by 30%, resulting in internal hyperinflation and market instability. Messy!
At the same time, this devaluation will cause substantial losses to US' global partners. For example, BMWs will be 30% more expensive in the US and Chryslers will be 30% less expensive in Italy, causing compounded losses in the demand of consumer products in the EU. Messy!
What caused all this mess? Policies and actions focused on the negative side of Capitalism and the negative side of Socialism. Capitalism focused on price and profit, not on sustainable production. Socialism focused on ever increasing and unsupportable entitlements instead of basic and sustainable security.
The path to the abyss is clear.
Greece is there but the US is near.
Do politicians hear?
Friday, February 24, 2012
Traffic Signal Optimization
4,114 Stoplights in Los Angeles and the Intricate Network that Keeps Traffic Moving is a simple and informative article of some of the advances in moving heavy traffic in congested cities.
I note that the City of Los Angeles has placed major priority on this city function not only by developing their sophisticated control system called ATSAC but also by staffing its operation ... "Yu and his team of 35 engineers and 20 operators."
HONOLULU needs about 1/4 of this level of staffing. It has 1/10.
In general, traffic signal optimization is among the "low hanging fruit" in mitigating some of the traffic congestion in urban areas. But it needs funding and staffing because this is a 24x7 operations with ever changing flows and congestion spots.
I note that the City of Los Angeles has placed major priority on this city function not only by developing their sophisticated control system called ATSAC but also by staffing its operation ... "Yu and his team of 35 engineers and 20 operators."
HONOLULU needs about 1/4 of this level of staffing. It has 1/10.
In general, traffic signal optimization is among the "low hanging fruit" in mitigating some of the traffic congestion in urban areas. But it needs funding and staffing because this is a 24x7 operations with ever changing flows and congestion spots.
Wednesday, February 22, 2012
Honolulu Can Do Much Better!
On President’s Day Senator Daniel Inouye called a press conference at his local office and made three recommendations for Honolulu. Build the rail, elect Mazie Hirono for Senator and elect Kirk Caldwell for mayor. Rail, Hirono and Kirk is the best trio for Honolulu’s future? I have a graphic answer ;)
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