Concerns About Honolulu's Rail Project Process Are Mounting

Four important organizations in Hawaii with a long and proud legacy on both environmental and traffic management concerns, The Outdoor Circle, the League of Women Voters, HonoluluTraffic.com and Hawaii's 1,000 Friends are discussing the many and significant flaws in the Draft Environmental Impact Statement for the proposed rail system for Oahu. See it here: http://www.hvca.org/video.aspx?video=rail.wmv

Meanwhile I am gravely concerned about the Honolulu City Council's haste and lack of desire to insert accountability controls in the budget that includes hundreds of millions of dollars for this project, as described in this article printed in Honolulu Star Bulletin (http://www.starbulletin.com/editorials/20090609_Council_poised_to_go_off_the_rail.html). Full text below:

Honolulu’s Council that represents almost 900,000 people on Oahu is about to make a major fiscal and political error. They are about to grant the authority to the city administration to start rail without environmental approvals and without federal monies. Council also plans to approve to start the project about a mile outside Kapolei, and develop a six mile elevated rail to Waipahu. Worse yet, they plan to approve the float of eleven hundred million dollars in bonds for rail with no stipulations or accountability controls. This $1,100 million obligation must be paid back by the Oahu taxpayer, plus interest.

These actions demonstrate a lack of responsibility, due diligence and common sense. Here is a partial list of what is lacking in this process.

Lack of uncertainty analysis in costs and ridership. The city and its consultants follow the bankrupt Everything Goes According to Plan principle. They have a cost contingency plan but it’ll evaporate by this prolonged recession. Most economists do not predict much growth for at least five years into the future. The city’s solution to insufficient funds will be more taxes, but the feds cannot approve a financial plan that is not ground on current reality.

How about the ridership? This project was justified by the assumption that by 2030 there will be many more residents in leeward Oahu and many more jobs all over Oahu that 738,000 more daily trips would occur in 2030 than in 2005, and 401,000 of these new trips would develop between Aiea, Mililani and Kapolei. Is there anyone that believes that this assumption is correct? The cost-effectiveness criteria for this project are now much lower than calculated in 2006. Updated estimates could disqualify it for federal funds.

Lack of sufficient investigation of technologies more suitable to Oahu’s environment such as underground segments and at-grade segments. True light rail, in full or in part, was never studied.

Lack of sound decision making which would have chosen an initial operating segment between Ala Moana Center and Aloha Stadium.

Lack of sound decision making in proceeding with construction without a completed and specific funding agreement with the Federal Transit Administration (FTA.) Actually this count alone qualifies Council actions as reckless and contrary to the best interests of the Oahu citizenry that they represent.

The U.S. is broke and the FTA faces several hundred billion dollars of necessary maintenance of existing transit systems including rail and bus fleets, thus billion dollar allocations to new systems are unlikely.

How much taxation escalation and irresponsible decision making is enough before a tipping point is reached and Oahu begins to lose population at an accelerated rate? (Thus making rail even more irrelevant.) Oahu lost a few thousand people from 2006 to the present time. More taxes, less services and rail to nowhere add to the existing misery and are strong incentives for a mass exodus.

Hawaii Highway Modernization ...

... or (unfortunately,) the failure of enacting it.

A fairly ambitious bill was submitted to the Hawaii State Legislature this year but it died in committee. The Bill would have raised gasoline and weight taxes to collect about three billion dollars and along with one billion in federal funds was planning to do a large number of shovel-ready projects to improve congestion bottlenecks, retrofit or replace old bridges, mitigate rockfall sites, improve pavements, etc. Highlights and the list of projects can be found here: Hawaii Highway Modernization. The bill may be taken up again at the 2010 legislative session.

A TV program was developed to discuss this lost opportunity. It is available in four parts on YouTube, as follows.

State Representative Cynthia Thielen Discusses Transportation with Professor Panos D. Prevedouros

Part 1 -- http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=yhRRadWez0w

Part 2 -- http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0wfYAW-XihY

Part 3 -- http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=5ytn2DoIiYw

Part 4 -- http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=FiDf53G204Y

International Symposium on Freeway and Tollway Operations in Honolulu

The 2nd International Symposium on Freeway and Tollway Operations has Active Traffic Management of expressway facilities as its core theme. The 2nd ISFO is designed to bring together freeway and tollway operators, practitioners and researchers specializing in freeway operations, highway toll operations and expressway infrastructure development. Over 150 presentations are scheduled in 35 sessions between June 21 and 24, 2009 at the Hyatt Regency Waikiki in Honolulu.

Presentations at the Symposium will:

• Capture the state of the practice in freeway and tollway operations including current programs and planned initiatives for Active Traffic Management.
• Discuss Intelligent Transportation Systems (ITS) and managed lanes.
• Explore the potential benefits of using managed lanes, tolling, pricing, and other strategies to improve traffic operations on congested freeways.
• Present methods and challenges for infrastructure financing and development.

Also, Hawaii-specific sessions will provide updates of public sector projects and discuss the impacts of traffic congestion to businesses in Hawaii.

The Symposium is conducted under the aegis of the Transportation Research Board, a unit of the National Academy of Engineering, and with sponsorship by the Federal Highway Administration and the Hawaii State Department of Transportation.

The Monday plenary program includes remarks from Lieutenant Governor James Duke Aiona, the Director of the Hawaii State DOT Dr. Brennon Morioka, Robert Poole of the Reason foundation, Dr. Joris Al from the Dutch Ministry of Transportation, and a keynote address by the internationally renowned transportation analyst and historian Alan Pisarski. Executives from Canada, China and Greece will provide regional state of the art reports for North America, Asia and Europe, respectively.

Active Traffic Management means being on top of corridor-wide traffic conditions 24x7 year-round and proactively adjusting controls to avoid or minimize jams. The Monday afternoon program also includes six presentations on active traffic management, and other modern methods in traffic operations. Most of these methods are highly effective, modestly expensive, necessary and applicable to Hawaii but largely absent from Hawaii at the present time.

For more information and registration visit the Symposium’s website at http://2isfo.eng.hawaii.edu and contact the Symposium coordinator Pacific Rim Concepts LLC at prc@hawaiibiz.rr.com. For technical information please contact Dr. Panos Prevedouros at pdp@hawaii.edu, chair of the symposium’s steering and organizing committees.

Hawaii Legislators, Council members and all State and City officials are cordially invited to the opening of the 2nd ISFO on Monday, June 22 from 7:30 AM to 11:30 AM. Registration is required for attending the luncheon and the subsequent program.

Conversation with a Rail Proponent from Texas

From time to time I receive thoughtful arguments about my posts. Craig, a senior attorney in Texas and I started conversing about the impacts of transportation on climate change. He remains a transit proponent (for now) and I remain a proponent of independence and automobility. Here is is our most recent exchange. Craig's part is first, and my response follows.

First of all, thank you so much for your reply. I have commented briefly below on your assertions.

I am really glad to hear from you. I have written to several other knowledgeable folks, but they are evidently very important and busy. In any case, I have read extensively in this venue, and have more than a few serious concerns. I would like to work them out, since more than one source predicts disaster. [He refers to global warming and its effects.]

If you would provide some clear evidence to guide me, I would be happy to change my mind about the future. I have a great deal of experience in travel, both in the US and in Europe, and in many American cities as well as cities in Europe. San Francisco, for instance, has the BART, which is used extensively and is dependable, safe and reasonably comfortable. Its major problem is crowding. They also have bus service that runs 24-7, at reasonable times. I was able to go anywhere in San Francisco during the middle of the day in about 10 minutes to 15 minutes, using mass transit. The same trip by car, because of parking problems, would take much longer, and cost much more.

Perhaps you have a problem with the cost of this sort of service. I do not. I know that taxes are a bit higher to cover the cost of transit. However, in San Francisco I did not need an automobile, and there was, believe me, a high net gain on the transaction. How is individual automobile travel going to overcome the problems that portend in the near and mid future, much less the longer range?

It just depends on your framing and viewpoint, I suppose. I have never viewed the automobile as anything more than a way to go from one place to another. It has no status value to me; I dislike the expense of purchasing it, the fact that I must transport 3000 pounds of vehicle to move 190 pounds of me, or that it creates pollution and is expensive to insure, service and fuel. I could live very well without an automobile. There are three reasons why mass transit does not work - it is not available/reliable, or it is not safe, or it is not comfortable.

Right now, I am not convinced that automobiles have much of a future. Please talk me down.

With great appreciation and interest,

Craig _________

=====================================================

Craig,

As an engineer I must provide remedies based on the full set of realities in front of me and not on any behavioral or theoretical schemes for the future.

Indeed SF, Chicago and NYC are special cases of transit and as you pointed out, the reason is the real limitations in automobility, primarily the lack of space and/pricing of parking.

Once you move out of this "10%" you need to confront the remainder "90%" of America which is sprawl. Trains and buses are massively expensive and massively inconvenient in spread out places. I had no part in spreading out American cities but the same is true for suburban Paris, London, Athens or even Tokyo.

I stayed for a while at Saitama University. Saitama cannot be differentiated from Tokyo but you need one or two buses to get to any rail stations that take you to fun or important places in Tokyo. What a production and waste of time, but road capacity in Tokyo make this transportation arrangement necessary. But there is no parallel of this to Houston, LA, Atlanta, Honolulu or what I called above the 90% of America.

The worst part of mass transit is that outside of 4-5 hours of peak travel, buses and trains run near empty, and unions mandate double shifts, overtime, and on and on. We are talking about excessive human labor and energy waste. In contrast, an 100 mpg Prius descendant in 2025 is highly likely (the current Prius is far more efficient than any light rail) and any Prius like car is totally benign outside the 60-100 minutes of average daily use.

This comment of yours is both fundamental and spot on: There are three reasons why mass transit does not work - it is not available/reliable, or it is not safe, or it is not comfortable.

Here is my comment on these fundamentals of mass transit:

(1) Rail is not available, bus is not reliable. Except for a few multimillion population cities and Manhattan, rail stations are too far apart for most residents in most cities. Buses are caught in road jams so they are not reliable. Few cities are smart enough to develop HOT lanes with priority for buses along jammed segments.

(2) It is not safe. Indeed bus and rail stops are shelters for homeless and retail points for frugs and other contraband. Also rail systems provide quick getaways, so robberies around stations are many more than other parts of the same city (see Vancouver and Portland statistics.)

(3) Not comfortable. Problems abound from overcrowding, pushing, groping, bad smells, loud music, intimidating and unstable people and inability to carry American sized groceries and other shopping. There is reason why 95% of Americans abandoned buses and trains. And they are not going back.

Society seems to have progressed along technology paths and personal independence. Cultural and social revolutions have fallen flat on their face. History seems to repeat itself, so the future will form along paths of technology and independence, some of which we cannot even imagine today. After all, the car is only 100 years old, and roughly only 50 years old as an affordable transportation appliance. The computer and cellphone are roughly 20 years old. Who knows what it is is store of us 20 and 50 years forth. But buses are rails are not likely to determine anything essential in our lives.

All best,
Panos

Greek Traffic Rules (humor)

ΚΑΝΟΝΕΣ ΟΔΗΓΗΣΗΣ ΕΛΛΗΝΩΝ – GREEK TRAFFIC RULES

Τα φλας προδίδουν την επόμενη κίνηση σου. Ο γνήσιος Έλληνας οδηγός δεν τα χρησιμοποιεί ποτέ.

Turn signals indicate your next move. Do not reveal it to them.

Σε καμία περίπτωση δεν πρέπει να κρατάτε απόσταση ασφαλείας από το προπορευόμενο όχημα διότι στο κενό που αφήσατε μπορεί να «χωθεί» κάποιο άλλο όχημα φέρνοντας σας σε ακόμα πιο δύσκολη θέση.

Never keep a safe distance from the vehicle ahead. Some other vehicle will squeeze in there and make your position even more unsafe.

Όσο πιο γρήγορα διασχίσετε ένα κόκκινο φανάρι, τόσο μειώνονται οι πιθανότητες να συγκρουσθείτε με άλλο όχημα.

The faster you run a red light the lesser the chance that you will collide with another vehicle.

Ποτέ μα ποτέ μην ακινητοποιήσετε το όχημα σας σε πινακίδα 'STOP'. Τα οχήματα που σας ακολουθούν δεν θα περιμένουν αυτή την αντίδραση σας, με αποτέλεσμα να καρφωθούν» πάνω σας.

Never come to a complete stop at a STOP sign because nobody expects you to do such a thing, and so you will find them in your trunk.

Το φρενάρισμα πρέπει να γίνετε όσο πιο αργά μπορείτε για να σιγουρέψετε την καλή λειτουργία του ABS , το οποίο με τη σειρά του θα σας ανταμείψει με ένα χαλαρωτικό μασάζ του ποδιού σας.

Use the brakes as late as possible so you can get the benefit of a foot massage from the ABS.

Τα όρια ταχύτητας είναι αυθαίρετοι αριθμοί που δίνονται μόνο ως πρόταση και δεν είναι προφανώς εκτελέσιμα στην Ελλάδα.

Speed limits are random advisory numbers that are obviously not binding for drivers.

Μάθετε να αλλάζετε λωρίδες με γρήγορους χειρισμούς. Χάρις στον υπουργό συγκοινωνιών, η Ελλάδα έχει μετατραπεί σε μια απέραντη πίστα με τρύπες-κλειδιά οι οποίες έχουν τοποθετηθεί σε καίρια σημεία για να ελέγξουν τα αντανακλαστικά σας.

Learn to change lanes on a dime. Thanks to the Ministry of Transport, Greece is full of potholes placed for testing your reflexes.

Είναι παράδοση στην Ελλάδα να κορνάρεις μόλις ανάψει το πράσινο φανάρι ακόμα και αν είστε πρώτος σ' αυτό.

Do not forget the Greek tradition to honk as soon as the light turns green, even if you are first in line.

Πάντα θα υπάρχει ένας πολύ καλός λόγος για τον οποίο εσείς θα βιάζεστε. Αντιθέτως όλοι οι υπόλοιποι οδηγοί των οχημάτων που θα συναντήσετε στον δρόμο σας δεν έχουν ιδέα γιατί πήραν τους δρόμους σήμερα.

There is always a good reason for you to be in a rush, whereas all other drivers have no idea why they are in traffic today.

Το προστατευτικό κράνος φοριέται στον αγκώνα. Σας συμβουλεύουμε να ακολουθήσετε και εσείς τη μόδα.

Motocycle helmets are to be fashionably carried as a hand bag. Please follow this rule.

Το στερεοφωνικό του οχήματος σας πρέπει να παίζει στο φουλ. Με αυτό τον τρόπο διασκεδάζετε τους πεζούς που περιμένουν υπομονετικά πότε θα τους δώσει κάποιος προτεραιότητα να διασχίσουν την διάβαση.

You car's sound system should be used at full blast in town. In this way the pedestrians can be entertained while hopelessly waiting for someone to yield.

Οι πεζοί είναι οι κυριότεροι εχθροί των οδηγών, διότι καταλαμβάνουν χώρο στα πεζοδρόμια με αποτέλεσμα να μην μπορούν να σταθμεύσουν αυτοκίνητα.

Pedestrians are the enemy of drivers, chiefly because they occupy the sidewalks which provide a fine place for double parking.

Things Wrong with Honolulu Roads -- May 2009 Update

At least three things are wrong in the picture below:
(1) The wind has blown one traffic signal open.
(2) The sign is vandalized with stickers.
(3) Traffic has the right of way but the pedestrian is crossing against the light and outside the crosswalk.

At the same intersection, more things are wrong. Motorists can barely see the yellow light when it's on, and the red light is totally hidden by the overgrown tree branches. This increases accident risk and creates substantial liability for the city.

Historically there have been a lot of complaints about uncoordinated road construction projects. Here is an example: The new pavement shown below was constructed seven months ago and should have an expected life of good service of about 15 years. In a well-managed city that is. By Honolulu standard it'll be pothole patched for an additional 15 years.

This smooth pavement is about to be cut open for an underground installation.

These pictures were taken in one half hour period between Diamond Head and the UH-Manoa campus. No attempt was made to photograph the ruts and potholes along 22nd Avenue in Kaimuki. Although a massive pavement job was done on Kilauea Avenue from KCC to Kahala, busy 22nd Ave. (a bus route too) was ignored. The roughness index on 22nd Ave should be below 30, with 100 being the best and 75 being the point at which the road is entered into a repaving schedule so that it can be repaved before its roughness reaches 50.

The problem is that many neighborhood roads are much worse than 22nd Avenue, e.g., several low volume roads in Manoa and Kailua that I have seen. We still have no preventative maintenance and our catch up is too slow to catch up because of wrong priorities and budget allocations. Reduced tax collections will only make matters worse in the next bienium.

---- Update ----

Pleased to be 48 hours ahead of AASHTO, the American Association of State Highway and Transportation Officials that on Friday, May 8 issued a report Rough Roads Ahead: Fix Them Now or Pay for It Later. Here's an interesting piece of information that affects us directly in the pocketbook:
Driving on rough roads costs the average American motorist approximately $400 a year in extra vehicle operating costs. Drivers living in urban areas with populations over 250,000 are paying upwards of $750 more annually because of accelerated vehicle deterioration, increased maintenance, additional fuel consumption, and tire wear caused by poor road conditions.

Sustainability Q&A

Recently I gave a presentation on sustainability to the Graduate Seminar course in civil engineering (CEE 691). Along with it I was given a list of questions and asked to answer them in brief. The presentation can be found h e r e. The Q+A is shown below.

1. What is sustainable development?

Sustainability is still not uniquely and comprehensively defined – sustainable development may be an oxymoron: For example, if Oahu is not sustainable as is, any additional development is a move in the wrong direction. Sustainable “anything” likely means minimized impact to Earth.

2. Give specific ideas on how civil engineers can contribute to sustainable development.

Recycle demolition materials, tires, pavements and all used materials that can be reused. Build only highly cost effective and necessary infrastructure and structures. Develop synthetic substitutes from waste. Treat and reuse water. Find low impact substitute for Portland Cement Concrete.

3. What does “sustainability” mean for the state of Hawaii?

Minimize energy dependence. Manage population growth and suburban sprawl. Make recycling and intelligent technologies a top priority. Produce methanol from biomass. Widespread usage of solar roofs. Facilitate electric vehicles.

4. What new policies of President Obama are related to sustainable development? Which of his ideas will benefit civil engineering specifically?

He seems to be putting too much emphasis on renewables and some of them are terribly cost ineffective. For the needs of this county, only nuclear energy is a clean substitute. I have yet to see any major policies that lead to sustainable engineering and development. On the contrary, his intercity high speed rail initiative is a mistake. (See previous blog poist, part 3.)

5. What new policies of Governor Lingle are related to sustainable development?

The agreement with Better Place for enabling electric vehicles is a major one. Better Place works like a gas station. It's an electric vehicle battery station. You buy the car, they supply the batteries. The more you drive, the more frequently you need charged batteries, the more you visit them to exchange spent batteries with charged ones. It's like buying gas with frequent user discounts similar to cell phone minutes. Better Place will install battery swap stations at selected gas stations. A battery swap will take only a few minutes; similar or shorter than a gas fill-up. The concept takes the fear out of running out of batteries, having to reach home for a charge, and having to replace expensive battery arrays.

6. Were communities 1000 years ago more sustainable than modern society is?

The pre-medieval hunger, disease and murder put strong pressures on population, and low population is one way to keep resource consumption low, but we are way past those times. Besides, the open fires of that age created much more pollution (per capita) than the current industrialization.

7. When we look at the human history, each individual has become more specialized and different countries also become more dependent on each other through trade and “globalization”. Is this a good trend? Shall we reverse it?

From the ancient times, trade among tribes was widespread. We now see the modern evolution of it. The globalization of trade is accelerating with more people, companies and countries involved in it every day. It is a natural flow impeded only by artificial protectionist policies. What many people resent is the globalization of culture. This is a less desirable byproduct of a rapidly interconnecting human race. It is up to individual regions to keep traditions of their cultures alive.

8. Some in America consider our dependence on foreign oil as a national security issue. Please explain the reasons behind their thinking. Do you agree with them?

For most any county, national energy production and consumption characteristics and the national energy policy are key inputs its nation's sustainability and by integration, to international sustainability. Energy supply from abroad is a vulnerability (e.g., U.S. dependency on Saudi Arabia for oil, EU dependency on natural gas from Russia, etc.) It is a major political and economic challenge but it is debatable whether it rises to the level of national security. On the other hand, France and Japan seem to think so since the former is 80% and the latter aims to 50% of nuclear energy, which makes them much less dependent on fossil fuel supply and pricing.

9. Some countries in the world do not produce their own food, cars or airplanes. Their main resources are oil. They sell oil and then import all other goods that they need. Is their dependence on other countries’ food, cars and airplanes also a national security issue for them? What are your thoughts?

The oil cartel is an established oligopoly with major power and a corresponding ability to destabilize international markets. The provision of cars, food and other consumables is neither an oligopoly nor a cartel. They can be obtained from several competing sources. Thus, oil producing nations are (currently) at a major advantage.

March 2009 Transportation News of Significance to Hawaii

The transportation news excerpted below come from the American Association of State Highway and Transportation Officials (AASHTO) weekly newsletter dated March 27, 2009:

• Mississippi State Joins Other States that Ban Red-Light Cameras
• FHWA Approves Express Toll Lanes for Dallas-Area Highways
• AMTRAK High Speed Rail Ridership Plummets

Each news excerpt is followed by my brief commentary making a connection to Hawaii.

(1) Mississippi Bans Red-Light Cameras but Hawaii Plans a Red Light Law

“Gov. Haley Barbour signed legislation last Friday prohibiting Mississippi localities from using traffic cameras to photograph and ticket motorists who run red lights. The state Legislature passed the bill earlier this month amid public outrage that governments are going overboard with the surveillance and using the cameras to generate more revenue. Many legislators said they were bombarded with requests from constituents to prohibit local governments from using the cameras to fine red-light violators.

Camera supporters unsuccessfully argued that the devices deter people from running red lights, reducing auto accidents and saving lives. At least six states have now banned the use of red-light cameras, according to a report by the National Conference of State Legislatures.”

My comments: By looking at the root causes of most accidents in Hawaii, a qualified observer will notice that the following factors dominate and are responsible for over two thirds of fatalities and serious injuries: (1) pedestrians crossing roads outside crosswalks and inattentively, (2) driver intoxication or other substance-induced impairment, (3) excessive speed compared to surrounding traffic or speed limit, or speed that makes vehicle control difficult, i.e., around bends, (4) motorcycle and scooter riders without helmets, and (5) driver involvement with personal electronic devices.

A red-right running law is similar to speeding tickets given to parents and grandparents in minivans doing 10 mph over the limit; it’s a lawful penalty and contribution to the G-fund. With a red-right running law, the Legislature adds words to the statutes and enables contracts for special interests. Such tickets and such laws have little real improvement to safety and quality of life due to the disconnect between accident causality on one hand, and law, enforcement and penalties on the other.

(2) Federal Highway Administration Approves Express Toll Lanes for Dallas-Area Highways but Hawaii State Has no Authority to Provide New Toll Lanes

“The Federal Highway Administration said Monday that it has approved a request from Texas to build express toll lanes on four freeways in and around Dallas and Fort Worth. The two projects are the first given a green light under FHWA’s Express Lanes Demonstration Program, which permits tolling of new lanes being constructed to relieve congestion. Toll prices on the new Texas lanes will vary according to time of day or the level of traffic and will be collected electronically.

Toll lanes will be added to 28 miles of Interstate 635 in the Dallas region and 36 miles of Interstate 35W, Interstate 820, and Texas 183 in the Fort Worth region. The lanes will give drivers the choice to pay for the benefit of a faster and more-reliable travel time, according to FHWA. Texas previously received federal approval under a different program to add High Occupancy Toll [HOT] lanes to Interstate 10 and U.S. 290 in the Houston metropolitan area.”

My comments: Most cities with traffic congestion problems are being outfitted with road capacity for traffic relief provided by managed HOT lanes. The City rejected managed lanes as a competitor to the much more expensive rail system. The issue in Hawaii remains that the state does not have tolling authority and rumors have it that this is due to objections rooted in State Senate.

Whatever the source, Hawaii loses a major opportunity to deploy HOT lanes on Oahu and bypass toll roads in the neighboring islands. Let me remind the reader that one of the largest current deployments of HOT lanes is in the nation’s capital beltway: http://virginiahotlanes.com.

(3) Honolulu's Administration Can’t Wait to Start Rail but Amtrak Ridership Plummets

“Just as the nation’s attention to the subject of high-speed passenger rail increases thanks to the inclusion of $8 billion in the federal economic recovery bill approved last month, the number of Americans riding the country’s fastest train service is nosediving.

Amtrak reported this week that ridership fell 17% last month on its Acela Express service between Boston and Washington compared to the prior February. Amtrak blames the economic recession, which has eroded business travel, Bloomberg reported.

Ridership on slower regional trains in the Northeast Corridor also fell significantly in February, by 14%. On the flip side, Amtrak experienced a 9.2% increase in riders on long-distance trains outside of the Northeast in February. [ed: But those trains carry a relatively tiny number of people.]

Amtrak’s passenger counts for the Northeast are falling slightly more than those recorded by the nation’s airlines. Across the country, the number of airline passengers fell 12% in February, the Air Transport Association reported last week.”

My comments: I do hope that President Obama pulls back quickly from his plan to outfit the U.S. with (half speed) High Speed Rail. True high speed rail like TGV in France and Shinkansen in Japan is massively expensive even for compact countries suitable for it. Those trains travel at well over 200 mph whereas Acela tops out at 120 mph. U.S. metro areas are too far apart (compared to Europe and Japan), U.S. has no exclusive track that is required for 200 mph trains, and the U.S. already has a comparatively massive airport infrastructure. Hopefully the $8 billion allocated for half-speed high speed rail in the Recovery Act will be the last to be wasted in this endeavor.

The lesson for Hawaii is that mistakes and wrong priorities occur both in D.C. and in Honolulu. One big difference is that D.C. can print money to cover for massive failures (for how much longer?) whereas Honolulu’s taxpayer will be saddled with a useless multibillion dollar rail built largely with heavy local taxes (most of them are in the horizon.)

Feels Good to Be 8 Days Ahead of the Wall Street Journal!

WSJ, March 20, 2009 (excerpt)

Budget Woes Hit Mass Transit as Tax Revenue Falls

By SUZANNE SATALINE

Just as mass-transit ridership has reached a historic high, tax revenues that fund rail and bus service have dropped, leaving transit agencies nationwide with huge budget deficits and the prospect of boosting fares.

In the New York City region, state lawmakers are locked in a dispute over how best to close a $1.2 billion mass-transit budget gap. The Metropolitan Transportation Authority, which runs public transportation in greater New York, says that without an emergency cash infusion it will be forced to boost fares 23%, and severely cut service to meet its $11 billion annual budget.

Divided state lawmakers and government officials in Albany have been pitching various plans that might pull in more cash -- including bridge tolls and new payroll taxes -- but no plan has attracted a majority of legislators and the governor.

Transit agencies in Washington, D.C., Chicago and San Francisco are facing similar situations.

... [sorry, no link... subscription required]

Transit Ridership Baloney and the Kapolei Choo Choo

"Nationally, Americans made 10.7 billion trips on public transit in 2008, a 4% increase over 2007, according to data released yesterday by the American Public Transportation Association." Then, APTA suggested that America's transit usage reached a new 50 year high.

This is in the same class of misinformation like the Hannemann administration’s propaganda for the "benefits" of the proposed rail from Kapolei to Aiea. Aiea is right because it will take a miracle to reach downtown and Ala Moana Center. Basically no one east of Aloha Stadium is in favor of elevated rail, even if they are in favor of rail transit. It is too expensive, too noisy and too ugly for the communities to allow it to go through.

Headlines also showed up in the local press about the booming transit ridership. But what do these numbers really mean?

Remember that public transit in America serves only a tiny portion of people and most of them are served by buses. So, these numbers mean that in 1956 the average American took 0.26 trips per work day in a public transit system. In 2008, the average American took 0.14 trips per work day in a public transit system. Note that the average American takes more than three trips per day, and basically all of them are done on a road system paid with gas taxes and other user taxes, but not by general taxes.

Although the gas prices and the beginning of a recession boosted public transit ridership from 2007 to 2008, these statements are true:
(1) Most transit agencies expect a decline in 2009, largely due to general workforce reductions (larger unemployment), and transit service reductions due to budget cuts.
(2) Americans used public transit way less in 2008 than in 1956. The rate of usage is about half and the overall tend is declining. Similar decline applies to TheBus.
(3) Rail transit carries a tiny proportion of commuters in the nation. Something in the order of 2% commute by rail, counting all streetcar systems too.
(4) The nation has a huge backlog of maintenance of existing rail systems and cannot afford any "New Starts." In the last few months the U.S. taxpayers were saddled with an extra two trillion in spending, which is roughly an extra $4,000 taken from every American worker.
(5) Now more than ever Oahu cannot afford a multibillion dollar tax bill with phantom benefits for our general economy.

As you know, the excise tax went up and property taxes will go up, zoo entry fee and other fees will go up. Not to improve city services or to get more lions or to fix our terrible roads or to pay for the billion dollar EPA sewage treatment requirement. But to pay for the proposed Kapolei Choo Choo! Lucky we live Hawaii? For how much longer?

Rail Draft Environmental Impact Statement: Technical Comments

My comments on the City and Count of Honolulu's Rail Draft Environmental Impact Statement (DEIS) were reorganized into two posts. The previous post covered general concerns, and this post covers my technical concerns of the report.

My review was based upon the DEIS section 4F dated November 2008 and particularly of chapter three on transportation impacts. Many of my comments refer to the supplementary report “Transportation Technical Report, Honolulu High-Capacity Transit Corridor Project, Prepared for: City and County of Honolulu, 417 pp, August 15, 2008” which includes much more detail and explanations on the traffic and transportation analyses that were the foundation of the results presented in the DEIS.

• Traffic Analysis Methodology

The traffic analysis method used is not suitable for saturated conditions, and is not suitable for corridor and regional studies. HCM mentions these limitations. Almost all traffic elements along this corridor are oversaturated, thus HCM methodologies do not apply (unless the wrong data are used and degrees of saturation are low.) Either way the output is wrong or misleading.

The table below, in which all black cells are the reviewer’s corrections, shows that general purpose traffic was estimated to be 31% above capacity (estimate of 1.31) but by their numbers, the correct estimate is 62.5% over capacity (estimate of 1.625.) Capacities are not revealed everywhere in the DEIS, so the reviewer cannot check the same calculations in the DEIS.

• Forecasts

Neither the DBEDT (provider of some of the base forecasts), nor the City nor their consultants understand that most growth phenomena in a metropolitan area concerning city expansion and their traffic follow an S-curve depicted by many years of existence as a village, transitioning to a city, several years of growth into a metropolitan area followed by a very long period of maturity with small growth (and decrease) periods. This study erroneously assumes a large future growth for west Oahu and nightmare traffic scenarios whereas Oahu's population, development and tourist attraction have ended their sharp growth and have entered their mature level with a lot of negative bumps along the way. For example, DBEDT Data Book Table 1.06, Honolulu population in 2006 was 906,715 and it dropped to 905,601 in 2007 which was before the sharp economic downturn of late 2008 which is expected to last till 2011.

As shown above, if S-shape forecasts were used, then the unrealistic demand levels shown in the Alternatives Analysis (AA) would never had appeared. However, something inexplicable happened between AA and DEIS: Screenline demands have been reduced by 28% without any explanation. As shown in the table on page 3, demands in the 2008 DEIS are lower by 28% for year 2030 compared to what they were in the 2006 Alternatives Analysis.

Such a discrepancy (28%) in demand produced by the OMPO forecasting model is highly suspect. Qualified alternatives such as TSM and Managed Lanes were dismissed based on high demand figures in the AA which were subsequently modified in the DEIS. A supplemental DEIS is needed to evaluate qualified alternatives with the reduced demand forecasts.

• Were ORTP 2030 Congestion Relief Projects Modeled Correctly?
  

Page 3-16: "Even with $3 billion in roadway improvements under the No Build Alternative, traffic delay in 2030 would increase by 44%".

If one was to correctly model all the committed congestion relief projects in ORTP 2030 (Table 2-3) and combine them with a the fact that Oahu population has been stagnant or falling (and bound to further fall due to poor economy and housing unaffordability), the highway congestion in 2030 could be improve by at least 15%.

For example, the PM zipper alone will carry about 1,500 vph through the Kalauao screenline with 3 or more people in them resulting in a person capacity of 4,500 going west. These are people removed from the existing network thus providing a substantial relief.

The westbound utilization of the rail will be optimistically 6,000 people through the Kalauao screenline of whom at most half will be drivers and ex-carpoolers or 3,000 people.

The PM zipper combined with a Nimitz flyover practically guarantee a continuous trip at 55 mph from Iwilei to Waikele to Kapolei. This commute is half as long in duration as that by rail.

Therefore, the PM zipper alone that carries more persons than rail can be more beneficial that rail. However, the DEIS tries to convince us that major traffic congestion relief projects will yield “peanuts” whereas the rail with its inferior speed and 15+ stops to Kapolei will yield superior travel time savings and traffic congestion improvements.

Part of the reason is likely that planning models are insensitive to bottlenecks and only provide rough estimates based on some assumed values of capacity. Until this author sees proof of use of a regional microsimulation traffic model assessing the impacts without and with correctly modeled ORTP 2030 projects, he asserts that the analysis method was inappropriate and largely incapable in assessing the benefit of the projects in Table 2-3 of the DEIS.

• DEIS Base Travel Times Are Inaccurate

Having resided in Kapolei for a short period if 2007, I know from personal experience that the morning peak period travel time from Kapolei to downtown is always under 75 minutes in the absence of rain or any lane closure. I was startled that the DEIS uses a time of 89 minutes.

I took the opportunity to ask people listening to a radio program that I participate to make some measurements of travel time from the H-1 freeway on-ramp to Alakea Street in downtown if they depart Kapolei between 6 AM and 7 AM. So far I received six qualified measurements of 49, 62, 75, 50, 62 and 59 minutes averaging at about 60 minutes. Therefore, roughly speaking the DEIS uses a 50% overestimate of the travel time which leads to false benefits of travel times by rail.

The DEIS fails to demonstrate the root causes of traffic congestion. The same travelers reported these airport-to-Alakea travel times: 18, 16, 41, 11, 30 and 25 minutes for an average of 23.5 minutes (DEIS uses 25 minutes). The real issue therefore is the traffic flow condition on Nimitz Hwy. which vary widely as these travel times show: 11, 16 or 18 minutes with good conditions, 25, 30 or 41 minutes with poor conditions. This makes it clear that a roughly two mile long Nimitz Viaduct will provide a consistent travel time from airport-to-Alakea of about 6 minutes, reducing the peak hour trip from Kapolei to downtown from about 60 minutes to about 40 minutes. A relatively modest investment solves a huge part of the morning commute congestion.

Note that rail will be providing airport-to-Alakea transit travel time of about 50 minutes (It is 50 to 54 minutes depending on the route selected. The airport route provides the longest travel time for this origin-destination pair.)

• TheBoat as a Threat to the Rail

TheBoat vessel inventory in page 3-31 is wrong. It should also be mentioned that its schedule reliability is poor due to frequent mechanical failures and high seas.

Since we spend the significant amount of $6 million a year on TheBoat, why didn't the DEIS estimate the productivity and congestion reduction of this alternative transportation mode? Will TheBoat reduce rail's ridership?

• Forecasts from the OMPO model

There is a long list of limitations of the OMPO model used to develop the all-important rail forecasts. Here are a few:

1. The model was developed in 1994 by Parsons Brinkerhoff. It is very old in terms of both architecture and data validity. It is also of interest that the same person who developed it as a Parsons Brinkerhoff forecaster now is an Federal Transit Agent who inspects the forecasts.
2. The model has parameters for dead attractions such as the Kodac Hula Show and the Dole Cannery, but has not parameters for Superferry, Ko Olina, Water Adventures Park, North Shore and Haleiwa.
3. The OMPO model is hardly a modern activity-based microsimulation platform. It is an old, aggregate platform with highly compartmentalized trip definitions.
4. The OMPO model depends on many assumed static capacities for various facilities. This makes it susceptible to range errors and easy manipulations. Note that the transit factor table depends on congested times. It would make sense that more people would choose transit from Kapolei to downtown if a time of 90 minutes is used instead of the correct time of 60 minutes. And that was done.

Same concern applies to arterial and freeway capacity which can be arbitrarily set too high or too low to satisfy the objective of the analysis such as “promote rail and undercut HOT lanes.”L

Rail Draft Environmental Impact Statement: General Comments

My comments on the City and County of Honolulu's Rail Draft Environmental Impact Statement (DEIS) were reorganized into two posts. This post covers general concerns, and the second covers technical concerns.

My review was based upon the DEIS section 4F dated November 2008 and particularly of chapter three on transportation impacts. Many of my comments refer to the supplementary report “Transportation Technical Report, Honolulu High-Capacity Transit Corridor Project, Prepared for: City and County of Honolulu, 417 pp, August 15, 2008” which includes much more detail and explanations on the traffic and transportation analyses that were the foundation of the results presented in the DEIS.

• DEIS Does not Assess the Impacts of the Project as Defined to the Public

As described in the Draft EIS, the Locally Preferred Alternative, called the “Full Project,” is an approximate 30-mile corridor from Kapolei to the University of Hawaii at Manoa with a connection to Waikiki. However, currently available funding sources are not sufficient to fund the Full Project. Therefore, the focus of the Draft EIS is on the “First Project,” a fundable approximately 20-mile section between East Kapolei and Ala Moana Center. The First Project is identified as “the Project” for the purpose of the Draft EIS.

This is a hugely critical simplification and it must be rectified with a Supplemental DEIS. The DEIS should have included both the full project and the 20 mile minimum operating segment or fundable project or whatever the City wishes to call it. The people’s understanding is that the rail system is Kapolei to UH with service to Waikiki. The routes beyond the Ala Moana Center are necessary to be assessed in the DEIS. We do not ask the city to assess its mayor’s obfuscations of future rail service from Hawaii Kai to Waianae, but the proposal always has been Kapolei to UH.

A Supplemental DEIS is required to assess the impacts for the whole corridor. It is not possible to begin the system, finish it to Ala Moana Center, and when it comes time to expand it, the expansion impacts are such that preclude any expansion.

• Transit Oriented Development (TOD) Potential Was Not Assessed

A final observation is that people may not realize the unintended consequences around some stations, particularly if they buy property in one of the city's Transit Oriented Development plans. For example, in the Pearl Highlands station, according to the DEIS estimates, over 1,700 vehicles in a day will come to park and take the rail, 300 vehicles will drop off passengers and over 300 buses will drop off and pick up over 8,000 transfer passengers. That's a lot of traffic, and that's station-only related traffic concentrate of the rush hours and this traffic will be on top of all the (heavy) regular traffic in the area.

The question then is... What's the impact of station generated traffic, noise and pollution to TOD potential and TOD plans? Where is the discussion and assessment?

• Over the H-1 Freeway at University Avenue?

This author clearly recalls incumbent mayor Hanneman’s beating of political opponent Ann Kobayashi for her complaining about the rail guideway going over the H-1 freeway on its way to the UH-Manoa campus. Both City and Hannemann vigorously and rudely disclaimed this in the September to November 2008 time frame but then the City presents this image on the official website as of February 4, 2009. the proposed rail clearly overflies the freeway!

• Two Stations at Ala Moana Center?

The Ala Moana Center station arrangement is a mystery. In the 20 mile plan, the station is approximately at the 3rd floor level. In the 30 mile plan the station is approximately at the 6th floor level. What is the exact plan for the Ala Moana Station and how can the guideway expand past the Ala Moana Center given the density, and height of buildings along Kona Street and Atkinson Drive?

This author suspects that roughly half a billion dollars would need to be expended to reconfigure (that is, to demolish and reconstruct) the guideway alignment between Pensacola Street and Atkinson Drive, including the demolition of the 3rd floor station and the creation of a 6th floor station, if rail has any hope in reaching UH-Manoa or Waikiki via Kona Street.

• Why the Double Track by Aloha Stadium?

There is no explanation for this particularly wide double tracking by Aloha Stadium. What’s the purpose, why has it not presented in detail and what is the cost of it?

• OMPO Never Rejected Pearl Harbor Tunnel as Claimed in Table 2-2

The DEIS is wrong in claiming that the Oahu Metropolitan Organization rejected the Pearl Harbor Tunnel. The UH Congestion Study found that this alternative has substantial traffic benefits at a cost comparable to rail’s. There has been no substantiation to the tunnels alleged costs between seven and 11 billion dollars. Viable projects should not be excluded through unprofessional conduct such as out of thin air costing and improper project qualification.

• Federal Funding

The Project’s cash flow analysis, which is presented in Section 6.4, anticipates the use of Local funds for the first construction phase and a combination of Local and Federal funds for the remaining phases.

The project must not start until the full extent of the federal funding is known in writing as part of the next Transportation Act of Congress, and the project should not start until a substantial portion of the federal funding (e.g., a portion that covers half of the cost of the first construction phase) has been actually released for the project. Anything else is simply reckless public policy.

To refresh our collective memory, the Federal Transit Administration retracted their record on decision (ROD) for Honolulu's 2003 BRT plan because construction along Kuhio and Auahi Streets was started prior to completing the necessary Full Funding Grant Agreement (FFGA). Here the stakes are much higher for the local economy and ground must not been broken until the project gets real federal cash (as opposed to political announcements by Abercrombie, Hannemann and Oberstar.)

• How Will the Rail Cars Go to the Rail Yard?

The rail yard is located several miles inland with no direct access to the harbors. Yet the DEIS is silent as to how rail cars and rail equipment will be transported there since rail cars do not fit on regular flatbed trucks and even if they can be accommodated by length and by weight on custom flatbeds, they do not fit by height due to the existence of several overpasses along the freeway. What are the logistics and costs of this significant part of the construction?

• Travel Times by Rail for Political Commercials and for NEPA Documents—Why the Double Standard?

The DEIS clearly specifies that Kapolei-to-downtown travel time by rail is 50 to 54 minutes. This travel time estimate was clearly known in August 2008. Yet in September 2008 the City mailed all residents (using taxpayer funds) a large eight page brochure, the centerfold of which states that Kapolei to Ala Moana Center by rail will be 40 minutes! (For those unfamiliar with the alignment, the Ala Moana Center is five stations after Downtown.)

• TheBus Inventory

In reference to Table 3-12: 2007 Vehicle Inventory, why is this inventory taken from "National Transit Database, 2007" and not directly from TheBusTheBus or the City's Department of Transportation Services transit division that oversees OTS? Why is the total passenger capacity not listed in the table?

At any given time, what percentage of these buses are service ready as opposed to being in repairs or waiting for repairs or parts, or damaged and beyond repair awaiting replacement?

It is my understanding that a lot of buses (about 20%) sit at depots during peak periods and express bus “crush loads” are artificial due to limited scheduling of buses. A case in point is the picture shown above. It was taken at about 6:30 AM on a normal weekday in 2004. The freeway is bumper-to-bumper in the town-bound direction, yet at least 53 buses sit at the depot, many of them articulated (which are typically assigned to the express routes.) How can TheBus “burst at the seams” as a pro-rail commercial claimed in late 2008 when many of the buses sit empty at the depot?

• Unrealistic Fares

To maintain consistency with the travel demand analysis, the actual 2007 average fare of $0.77 per linked trip was assumed to grow with inflation throughout the forecast period.

So the DEIS assumed that fares are the same as TheBus, which given the cost to build and operate the rail, this means that trips are essentially free to users and the general public pays for it. How can this possibly be reconciled with the Council’s desire to cover 30% out of the fare box?

What kind of administrator, engineer and planner does it take to build a five billion dollar transit service and then charge a dollar per ride? I must have this answered so we are able to teach our students this “new math.”

• Ho’opili

The EIS for the Ho’opili project analysis for permit application was done by a consultant other than Parsons Brinkerhoff. It shows projected 2030 freeway traffic conditions with and without rail transit. There's no difference; both are level of service F. It is clear that rail or not, traffic conditions along the subject corridor will be terrible. So the City clearly violated the intent of the NEPA process to clearly inform Oahu’s citizens that rail is no solution to traffic congestion. We all know that the City used taxpayer money to do promote rail as a solution to congestion.

Two Dozen Questions for the City’s Rail Propaganda, Strike That, DEIS

A person in a local government position sent me a list of concerns and questions that the Draft Environmental Impact Statement of the City and County of Honolulu (which simplistically and conveniently narrowed our choices down to steel-on-steel rail and do nothing) should answer but it mostly does not. Any reader of the DEIS will notice that it is big on discussion and small on specific answers and mitigation plans. The owner of this blog did not provide input or alter any information on the following list of 24 items.

1. Building costs are understated, future increases in construction, labor, and material costs are not reported nor mentioned. Also, some of the City's plans for the terminals/terminus are incomplete, missing substructures, rails, handi-access, etc. Was this to artificially deflate the reportable costs? If so the City's entire plan is flawed, and fraudulent.

2. No mention is made of a turn-around or depot. There will undoubtedly be a maintenance yard or some related facility to take the tram down for repairs. This is not mentioned.

3. The Administration has made repeated assurances that the project will be done with minimal impact to neighboring areas, residents, businesses. This cannot be the case. Building and construction guidelines are very specific, requiring x amount of relief space, and will require shutdown of adjoining lots, properties, streets and roads.

4. Many of the people who realized their properties will be (eventually) condemned via eminent domain are under the absolutely mistaken impression that they will be receiving the (at future time) full market value (fmv) of their properties. This is not the case. Research into the City's sojourns into exercising eminent domain muscle reveals that they set aside a lump sum amount, to be paid to defendants served with the Order Putting Plaintiff in Possession (i.e. City). Wording is usually like this: "The sum of $xx,xxx deposited with the Chief Clerk of this Court by the Plaintiff as estimated just compensation..." Usually the award is a few pennies on the dollar of the actual value of the condemned and claimed property. The defendant usually has no recourse. Waianae residents were notified last July that they were losing portions of their property, after construction had already begun for the emergency access road.

5. Regarding property, it is likely the rail system will negatively affect property values. Cities have trended that property values drop near an existing commuter or rail line. The noise negates, for most people, the benefit of proximity to a transit line. Many cities found that rail ridership decreased, in favor of buses, bicycles, and scooters.

6. I personally believe most people would favor a scooter over inconvenience of driving to a depot yard and park their car with thousands of others, to catch a rail to work.

7. The lifespan of a typical rail system is about 30 years. Thereafter, it must be 100% wholly replaced at full value at that future time. It's simply a matter of infrastructure breakdown.

8. The lifespan of a typical tram system (light rail) is about 15 years. Thereafter, it must be 100% wholly replaced, or else repaired to the point where it's economically unfeasible.

9. The mathematics of the City's plan to take 50,000 drivers off the road is not practical nor possible. Let's assume the City is extremely aggressive and forward-thinking in their planning. Let's say they build two rail systems, one that begins in point A (Kapolei area) and the other begins in point B (Downtown). Let's say there are 12 cars to a train (no longer considered light rail), each holding 200 passengers, which is 2,400 passengers total capacity per train, going a single way, or 4,800 passengers for the entire system. Let's say the trains will cross each other in the middle, so there is always a train going and coming in both directions. In order to meet the Administration's goal to take an approximate 50,000 drivers off the road at that future time, the trains will have to travel about 77 miles per hour, nonstop, in order to make the approximate 10 round trips each train will have to make, in an hours' time. This oversimplified math problem underlies the fatal flaw in the plan. The City's plan for light rail does not have the capacity for 4,800 total passengers at any given time. This would be rush hour in the morning, from 5:30AM to 8:30AM, and 3:30PM to 6:30PM. It is not mathematically possible to do it with the above configuration, nor with the City's proposed version, which is much smaller passenger capacity. This may be decried by the Administration as "Mickey Mouse Math" but the figures cannot be doubted. The rail will not accomplish what it is envisioned to.

10. The City's proposed 6,000+ jobs to directly or indirectly support the rail system, operations, maintenance, support services, administration, and vendor services, is not economically sustainable. The vendors have the best bet, at least people will stop on the way to buy coffee, pastries, morning paper, etc. But wait, they can't because the system has to run without stops to make its rush hour quotas.

11. The City's Transportation Department has in effect given their current employees a potential for higher-paying and more executive jobs, "fresh" and new. The current employees are capped where they are at, but the Rapid Transit Division (the most expensive and largest Division by staff and dollars) is a way for them to move up. See their presentation here: http://www.honolulu.gov/dts/dts+fy2008+operating+budget+request.pdf If you scroll down to page 7, you will see "Rapid Transit Division", 35 proposed executive and administrative support positions, costing a whopping $2,338,644 in staff costs, dwarfing their next largest Division by over $500,000, but has only 1 position more. This indicates that, given civil service positions and current pay scales, these are much higher and more executive positions, possibly (POSSIBLY) created this way by the Transportation Department to give their currently “ceilinged” staff someplace to go, and retire happily with a healthy retirement pay.

12. No amount of ridership fees could make up the construction, maintenance, and daily operations costs of the entire rail system. Notwithstanding the payroll costs. The majority of the costs will become personnel-related, such as 41+% fringe rate, immediate salaries plus vacation payouts and other benefits. Throw in maintenance? That's also a personnel cost, with OT attached, at City & County rates. You know, 12 maintenance workers scheduled to perform upkeep, each files OT requests, however only 1 or 2 actually do majority of the work. A recent audit found many road crews operate in this fashion. However the audit was for City internal use only.

13. No amount of taxes can make up the total cost plus ongoing upkeep. The burden on the taxpayers of the state would be astronomical, it could not possibly be estimated.

14. People who voted "YES" did not realize, they were not really indebting themselves, but their progeny, to a lifetime of debt service to this system. It cannot possibly be completed before, say, 2025 or 2030, when most of those who voted will be at or nearing retirement, and it will no longer make a difference for them. Many people simply jumped on the bandwagon without really thinking things through.

15. A raised rail system lumbering many stories above buildings and 1-2 storey homes and apartments in the proposed areas would ruin not just the overall landscape, but many people's enjoyment of the view looking out not to the ocean, but the SKY.

16. The Administration's claim is that if they get this project going now, they can jumpstart the state's economy and provide much-needed jobs through construction. This is short-term a truth, however if there exists no money to begin with, and the Council on Revenue's forecast shows a current year deficit, with factors of debt in the out-years, where is the funding going to come from? It reminds me of a very ambitious building project in Downtown that sat for many years until another investor came by. Only the Federal Gov't can deficit spend. How can you ambitiously plan alternate and future routes (as the Council is debating now) without having any up-front direct revenues, investor venture capital, bond interest, or other form of monies on hand to even "break ground"?

17. Construction costs are years away, when materials, labor, and rates will be much higher. Final completion costs can be many times the $5 Billion thrown in front of the hapless public. And, once construction begins, final completion can be upwards of 20 years away, including the various legal battles and hurdles the City will no doubt face, in battling hundreds of home and landowners, businesses, and action groups. It will be unprecedented in our State's history, and will likely bring embarrassment to us nationally.

18. Speaking of attention, it is likely that people will prefer (as they do now) places such as Tahiti, Fiji, Thailand, and New Zealand, over Oahu anyway. Many tourists surveyed by the HTA recently said they'd never come back if the beaches eroded. What happens if (i.e. by the year 2030) the beach in Waikiki is a memory, hotels are literally flooded, AND there is a lumbering, leviathan, hulking, clackety, metallic silver worm snaking its way through Downtown? Realistically, do you think any tourists would come to Honolulu, except to use it as a springboard from the Mainland USA to their exotic destination in the far Pacific or Asia?

19. Other states that the Administration quoted as having successful rail systems have something that Hawaii will never have, regardless of how much development we want to create - land space. If anything, Hawaii - due to current erosion - can do nothing but lose land space, at least in Honolulu County. In order for the rail to be plopped down, people who are already there have to make way. As our proud and defiant mayor has proclaimed in various ways, "...anyone opposing this will have to just get out of the way..." The first time he said it on TV, we passed it off to his frustration and lack of self-control. Thereafter, it is a clear indication of absolute superciliousness, self-love, and hubris which I do not ever recall seeing in any of our recent mayors of my memory. The sign of a bad publican is to - even modestly - threaten to shove it down the peoples' collective throats when his way is challenged, and his personal progress slowed.

20. The Administration does not inform the public of the following: Chicago Mass Transit (Chicago Transit Authority), one of the original models for an earlier proposed transit system, is bankrupt. If not yet, pretty darn near. The cost of doing business has long overrun the intake due to ridership, which has decreased over the last 30 years. Even their bus ridership is down, largely due to increased crime in poverty-stricken areas near the center of town. Unfortunately for us, Pearl City & Mililani are becoming what Kalihi and Liliha have long been - our native slum.

21. Sound is a pressure wave that emanates radially outward from its source, decreasing as the inverse square of that distance the listener is from it. The City's contention that erecting short walls, combined with the raised platform, will decrease noise to a minimal level, is preposterous beyond laughable. Any system, even a rolling wheeled vehicle, creates a significant amount of noise, and particularly at night. Anyone who lives near the University or along the H-1 between McCully through Pearl City knows this. Even if it is no louder than a small grass whip, it will be noticed, and people will be driven out. I used to live in a small apartment on Thurston Avenue in Makiki, and the simple act of the bus rolling at 11 at night was enough to jolt this young child - at that time - awake from a light sleep.

22. Due to Homeland Security regulations involving public transportation, the City & County would have to establish, and integrate into the Honolulu Police Department, a separate Honolulu Rapid Transit Police force, or else divert current - or future - officers to that duty. Security screens may be necessary at depots as well, adding to delays (but wait, they can't stop right?)

23. The Administration claims that the economy will be stimulated, looking at (i.e.) Denver, Portland, and San Jose light rail development, don't realize that those systems were supported by large tax or other subsidies, something dramatically lacking in Hawaii's economy. Even the current tax collected for transit is far short of proposed levels they would have to be at for the system to be a reality.

24. Finally, no mention is made as to whether this light rail system can accommodate passengers (i.e. from the airport) with large luggage, or whether stowage space is or can be provided for safety, comfort, and security of others?

Bill Tasking DBEDT with Developing Permitting Requirements for Nuclear Power Plants

Hawaii's State Legislature House Bill 1 proposes to task the state Department of Business, Economic Development and Tourism with creating a framework for permitting nuclear power plant installations in Hawaii. By State Constitution, nuclear power plants are prohibited in Hawaii --although there are at least a handful of nuclear powered U.S. Navy vessels in Pearl Harbor at any time.(**) A two thirds vote by the Legislature can amend the Constitution. The following text is my testimony in favor of this bill.


The scarcity and cost of fossil fuels makes the development of expensive nuclear energy a cost-effective if not essential proposition. France and Japan are leading examples of reliance on nuclear power with minimal ill effects. At the first oil crisis in 1973, only 1% of Japan’s electricity was produced by nuclear energy. By the second oil crisis of 1979, 4% was from nuclear; in 2000 the ratio was up to 12% and the 2010 goal is 15%. As of 2005, Japan had 52 operating nuclear plants, 3 in construction and 8 in planning and design. France is even more ahead: Its 59 nuclear plants produce 88% of the country’s electric power. There are about 440 nuclear power plants on the globe. France, Japan and the U.S. combined produce over 55% of the nuclear power energy on the globe.

The advantage of nuclear power is that it produces large amounts of dependable and easily controlled electric power like hydroelectric, coal-fired or oil-fired power plants. Solar, wind and wave energy have huge limitations in terms of capacity and reliability; practically all deployments are still experimental and heavily subsidized. No question that solar, wind and wave energy will be partners for the long-term energy sustainability in Hawaii, but they are unlikely to be the providers of the majority of the needed power.

They too have their environmental downsides such as requirements of very large areas for deployment, major susceptibility to hurricanes and/or tsunamis, large construction costs and all the noxious shortcomings of building, maintaining and disposing of expansive and expensive arrays of batteries which have a rather short life span.

One advantage of compact power plants is that since they are largely self sufficient (i.e., they do not need a tanker to anchor by regularly to refuel the plant) they can be placed off shore in what ocean engineers call “large floating structures.” Thus, a nuclear power plant can be 20 miles away into the ocean (still easily accessible) and provide electricity to Oahu with a cable. There are undersea power plant transmission lines in excess of 40 miles.

However, this bill is not about building nuclear power plants. This bill simply provides a way for us to take the blindfolds off and begin to address the real issues of Hawaii sustainability, twenty or more years into the future. This bill will allow us to begin assessing the potential and work towards answers to questions, issues and challenges of nuclear energy in Hawaii.

(**) I received some interesting feedback since this opinion was published in Hawaii Reporter.

Firstly, there are 15 nuclear submarines stationed at Pearl Harbor and at any time roughly about half are in port:

1. USS Los Angeles (SSN 688), Pearl Harbor, HI
2. USS Bremerton (SSN 698), Pearl Harbor, HI
3. USS La Jolla (SSN 701), Pearl Harbor, HI
4. USS Olympia (SSN 717), Pearl Harbor, HI
5. USS Chicago (SSN 721), Pearl Harbor, HI
6. USS Key West (SSN 722), Pearl Harbor, HI
7. USS Louisville (SSN 724), Pearl Harbor, HI
8. USS Pasadena (SSN 752), Pearl Harbor, HI
9. USS Columbus (SSN 762), Pearl Harbor, HI
10. USS Santa Fe (SSN 763), Pearl Harbor, HI
11. USS Charlotte (SSN 766), Pearl Harbor, HI
12. USS Tucson (SSN 770), Pearl Harbor, HI
13. USS Columbia (SSN 771), Pearl Harbor, HI
14. USS Greeneville (SSN 772), Pearl Harbor, HI
15. USS Cheyenne (SSN 773), Pearl Harbor, HI

Secondly, each one of them is outfitted with a powerful nuclear reactor generating between 148 MW and 165 MW. For contrast, the new biodiesel power plant of HECO is rated at 110 MW. If memory serves, total electric power capacity on Oahu is under 1,000 MW. But Pearl Harbor submarines (half of the assigned fleet) have a potential output of 1,100 MW!

Hawaii DOT Follows Through: Research Pays Off!

Governor Lingle's release of $140 million for two projects for freeway relief is significant, not only because these project are expected to provide major relief from traffic congestion but also because these projects started as university research projects.

These real solutions to Oahu's traffic problems were the products of collaborative research among the Department of Civil Engineering that UH-Manoa, the Hawaii Department of Transportation (HDOT) and the Federal Highway Administration, as follows:

INVESTIGATION OF THE H-1 FREEWAY, Volume 2: EAST BOUND ANALYSES. Final Report prepared for HDOT and FHWA, Honolulu, January 2003.

SIMULATION OF WESTBOUND INTERSTATE H-1 FREEWAY BETWEEN AIRPORT AND WAIKELE DURING THE AFTERNOON PEAK. Draft Report prepared for the Hawaii DOT and the FHWA, Honolulu, October 2006.

Doug Meller of the Planning Section of HDOT was the project manager on both these projects, for which this author was the principal investigator assisted by 10 graduate and undergraduate students including Jerry Ji (Ph.D.), Honglong Li (PhD), James Watson (MSCE), Yuhao Wang (MSCE), Lani Andam, Brian Babb, A.K. Colburn, George Lau, Lizi Olson, and Jennifer Arinaga.

This funding announcement is a great example of research payoff. It is proof that detailed traffic simulation studies are needed in order to evaluate and quantify the advantages and pitfalls of various potential solutions; and choose the best feasible alternative for implementation.

Then it takes political acumen (Governor) and technical knowledge to follow through with the engineering design and costing (HDOT and engineering contractors) to bring research concepts to implementation for actual relief. Kudos to Governor Lingle and Director Morioka.

Source: MAJOR TRAFFIC CONGESTION-RELIEF PROJECTS PLANNED FOR OAHU MOTORISTS (January 12, 2009)

Highlights and Lessons for Hawaii from "Global Trends 2025"

The Global Trends 2025 report is a must-read for all policy makers, company executives, regional planners, long-term strategists and concerned global citizens. Some of the expectations expressed in the report are quite relevant to Hawaii as they present likely challenges or opportunities. Here is a list of my highlights:

INTERNATIONAL POLITICS

The United States will remain the single most powerful country but will be less dominant.

Growth projections for Brazil, Russia, India, and China (the BRICs) indicate they will collectively match the original G-7’s share of global GDP by 2040 to 2050.

A global multipolar system is emerging with the rise of BRIC. Indonesia, Iran, and Turkey are likely to be large regional players.

Shift in relative wealth and economic power is occurring from West to East.

Global markets are expected to recede.

Regionalism may solidify in three blocks: North America, Europe and East Asia. This, among other things, may undermine the goals of World Trade Organization (WTO) or international agreements (Kyoto protocol.) Regionalism may lead to regional product standards for information technology, biotechnology, nanotechnology, intellectual property rights, and other aspects of the “new economy”.

Resource issues will gain prominence on the international agenda. Strategic resources, energy, food, water. This gives rise to local, regional, national and global sustainability.

SUSTAINABILITY

1.2 billion more people by 2025 will put pressure on energy, food, and water resources.

Climate change likely occurs but the locations and severity of its impacts are highly uncertain. Largest near term threat is drought or limited water supply in some regions.

Demography (low birth rate and fewer young paying the pensions of many old people) are major challenges for Europe and Japan. Will they have a sufficient number of workers to support robust economies?

Increase in oil and commodity prices have generated windfall profits for the Gulf states and Russia, but it is hard to predict the long term outlook of fossil energy use and pricing because…

…. energy transition away from oil is occurring rapidly to national gas, coal and solar, and more slowly in other areas such as improved energy storage, biofuels, hydrogen, clean coal and other alternatives. New energy technologies probably will not be commercially viable and widespread by 2025.

All current technologies are inadequate for replacing the traditional energy architecture on the scale needed.

Photovoltaic and wind energy, and improvements in battery technology are the most likely platforms for quick and inexpensive energy transitions.

Large scale solutions may come from individual projects enabling many small economic entities to develop their own energy transformation projects, such as fuel cells powering homes and office.

An energy transition is inevitable; the only questions are when and how abruptly or smoothly such a transition occurs.

New technologies provide solutions to overcome food and water constrains.

Lack of access to stable supplies of water is reaching critical proportions in some areas. The problem will worsen because of rapid urbanization. China is a prime example.

LESSONS FOR HAWAII

• Brazil, Russia, India, and China are new and largely untapped markets for Hawaii, for tourism and other alliances. Initiatives to these markets are necessary to counter Japan’s likely shrinking economy.

• Climate change maybe less of a threat to Hawaii as its primary short term effect, drought, is not a likely issue for Hawaii. Sea level change, if confirmed in magnitudes of a few feet above high tide, has the potential to devastate Hawaii’s beaches, shorelines, areas such as Kakaako and Mapunapuna, and some critical highways.

• Hawaii is a near perfect test bed for solar and wind energy research and development, in addition to ocean and geothermal. Through the Hawaii Natural Energy Institute and other efforts, Hawaii has a rich knowledge base and experience on biofuels, clean carbon and other renewable alternatives. (By the way, there is wide agreement among experts that ethanol from corn is a counterproductive endeavor. It is time to repeal the state law that forces Hawaii to import corn ethanol from the mainland.)

• Production of adequate food supply for our local demand is a long lost battle in Hawaii, so sustainable transpacific transportation of foods, staples and industrial products is a priority in order to sustain life for 1.3 million residents and roughly 100,000 tourists (per day.)