Friday, June 26, 2020

My June Commentary on Trump and the Pandemic, Masks, and Hawaii Tourism

The late June Covid-19 situation in AZ, FL and TX (see 1) is a second chance for Trump to re-set his stance on the pandemic, for a chance to win. Or he can double down on absurdities and toast himself... because he isn't losing thanks to Biden's abilities and platform.

A consistent, transparent and measured response to the virus will do it:
  • Promote open air activities,
  • Use disinfection,
  • Keep distancing,
  • Use masks in crowded environs, and
  • Educate people with Covid-19 pre-conditions to avoid crowded indoor environments (even with family and friends.)
The anti-mask rhetoric has become absurd: We all know that decades of use of masks by doctors, nurses and the Japanese did not asphyxiate them, and did not turn them into communist peons or face covering Muslims. Relax and protect yourself. Remember the virus loves a crowd and gets to you via the nose or mouth.

Use your common sense. For example, my common sense says to use the mask inside a Costco or any supermarket because some isles are crowded and usually someone will cough or sneeze during the time I am there. My common sense says to pass on using the mask at Costco gas or any gas station. It's open air, I'm there for 2-3 minutes only, and typically there's nobody near me.

It doesn't matter much what rules Hawaii will establish for tourism... Given the anti business mindset of the people in charge, Hawaii will make itself even less attractive than other sunny places, thus prolonging its economic misery.

The facts are these: (1) airport travel volume is around 10% compared to 2019, (2) no large hotels will open to operate at 10% capacity and at nearly 100% cost, and (3) marketing Hawaii as a safe destination makes little sense since it involves a 12 or 17 hour round trip in an airplane from California or Japan; this is a much higher risk than time spent at the beach or in a spaced out restaurant.

Bottom line, tourism will happen at its own terms, not at ours. Politicians and regulators are clearly part of the problem in this arena, in making rules that mostly inconvenience Hawaii based travelers.


Note (1): That's the problem with summer... hot and humid weather in AZ, FL, TX, etc. which makes the outdoors less inviting for long periods, and air conditioned spaces highly desirable... thus crowding many people in enclosed spaces with recirculating chilled air. Just what the virus needed for spreading. On a positive note, the crowds seem to include less vulnerable people, so in some states case numbers are way up, but Covid-19 fatalities are nowhere near what NY had in March.

Friday, June 12, 2020

Memorial Day Did Not Increase Covid-19 Cases in the US

Daily data on new cases of Covid-19 in the US show that Memorial Day celebrations, widely reported to have causes masses to enjoy themselves with no adherence to social distancing, did not cause a spike a cases. 

In the data below,
  • Week 1 ends on Memorial Day and has a total of 157,584 new cases
  • Week 2 follows and has a total of 140,056 new cases, and 
  • Week 3 has a total of 951 new cases