Christie Gets Off the Train -- Carlisle Gets In the Train

The letter below was printed in The Wall Street Journal, page A16 on October 28, 2010.

"I cannot place upon the citizens of the State of New Jersey an open-ended letter of credit," said Garden State Governor Chris Christie yesterday.

Mr. Christie was affirming his decision to cancel a bloated project to build a new railroad tunnel under the Hudson River to New York City. He also affirmed that a government that already taxes its citizens more heavily than any other state in the country and has still racked up more than $100 billion in unfunded liabilities must finally recognize its limits.

The proposed tunnel was a joint project of the state of New Jersey, the Federal Transit Administration, and the Port Authority of New York and New Jersey, with each contributing roughly equal amounts. The catch was that Jersey would pay for any cost overruns.

What are the chances that this project would have been completed on budget? Consider the history. Expected to cost less than $5 billion during initial planning, the price tag jumped to $7.6 billion amid environmental impact studies in 2005. By the fall of 2008, $8.7 billion was the working assumption—until last summer when the feds forecast at least $10.9 billion, and possibly as much as $13.7 billion. After Mr. Christie made it clear last month that he wanted to avoid the fiscal train wreck looming under the Hudson, the feds reduced their estimated costs to a range of $9.8 billion to $12.7 billion.

In any case, Garden State taxpayers would still have been on the hook as soon as the meter ran above $9.8 billion, which even the feds acknowledge was a 90% certainty. It's hard to blame Mr. Christie for sparing taxpayers from such a fate.

What does the state of New Jersey finances and Gov. Christie's action mean for us on Oahu?

If taxes are thoroughly accounted for, then Hawaii is comparable in taxing its citizens with New Jersey.

The rail tunnel was planned to cost under $5 Billion and right before going into construction it would likely cost $9 Billion to $12 Billion.

On Oahu's banana republic the rail is planned to cost close to $6 Billion and Carlisle is going for it. Previous mayors argued that it will cost less that $5 Billion when FTA Jacob's report said that there is a 5% probability that Honolulu rail will cost over $8 Billion.

A Star Advertiser analysis by Sean Hao showed that infrastructure repairs alone in Hawaii top $32 Billion and the whole in the state's employee retirement system that we must fill locally is over $8 Billion for a rough total in liabilities of $40 Billion.

Note that the letter above says that Governor Christie canceled the rail project because of New Jersey's $100 Billion in other liabilities. New Jersey is 8.5 million people. So our $40 Billion liability in Hawaii compared to New Jersey is proportionally 2.8 times larger!

Carlisle is oblivious of the fiscal hole we are in. Carlisle also has not realized that the politics and costs of rail have retired its proponents. One thing Carlisle has going for him is 6 to 12 months of opportunity to get off the train.

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National Performance Metrics Comparison of Honolulu’s Elevated Rail and HOT Lane Proposals. Final Score!

Time to add up the scores for Rail and HOT Lanes based on the three NTPP goals and their six metrics that were detailed in the three blog posts below.

While this may sound like a straight forward addition, it is not. The NTPP report does not say that the three goals are equal.

For simplicity, one may assume that the goals of (1) Economic Growth, (2) Energy and Environment, and (3) Safety are equal, so each one has a weight of 33.3%.

Another person may argue that safety is paramount and the other two goals are lesser in importance, so for example Safety has a weight of 50% and the other two have a weight of 25% each.

We can come up with a variety of weighted importance percentages, but to conclude this exercise of transportation alternatives pre-planning let’s summarize the scores using these two summation schemes mentioned above.



The table above clearly shows that based on the 2009 National Transportation Performance Criteria for economic growth, energy, environment and safety, HOT Lanes is a far superior alternative to Elevated Rail.

If we use equal weights of 33.3% for each goal, then HOT Lanes scores 60 points and Elevated Rail scores 27 points. If Safety is worth 50% and the other two goals are worth 25% each, then in total HOT Lanes scores 60 points and Elevated Rail scores 32 points.

Honolulu made the wrong choice in the 2006 Alternatives Analysis when Elevated Rail was chosen as the Locally Preferred Alternative. This evaluation using 2009 NTPP goals shows how big a mistake was made: 20 miles of Elevated Rail will barely be half as good as 10 miles of HOT Lanes.

National Performance Metrics Comparison of Honolulu’s Elevated Rail and HOT Lane Proposals. Goal 3 of 3: Safety

Let’s briefly analyze how 20 miles of rail with 21 stations and 10 miles of HOT lanes would score in an application in Honolulu based on three goals and six NTPP metrics that were presented in a previous blog.

In order to reach a bottom line, the best alternative for each goal will receive a score of 10 and the second best will receive a relative score between 0 and 10.

Note that these metrics address deeper goals and treat congestion as an outcome. For congestion relief alone HOT lanes would score a 10 and rail a 1.

In this last part we focus on NTPP goal 3 which is Safety. This goal has two metrics, fatalities and injuries per capita and per vehicle miles traveled or VMT. Brief descriptions of the compared RAIL and HOT Lanes alternatives are provided here.

Fatalities and Injuries per Capita

RAIL: Rail systems are commonly assumed to be very safe compared to “dangerous roads.” Far from it. When suicides, rapes, drugs, pick-pocketing and other crime in stations and elevator, escalator, walking, falls inside a moving train and other accidents are comprehensively accounted for, and weighted by the relatively small numbers of people rail serves compared to roads, then urban rail systems are less safe than managed roads. Note that high voltage third rail systems like the one planned for Honolulu are notorious for suicides, the statistics of which are always kept secret to discourage these events. (Score = 7)

HOT Lanes: The Attica Tollway in Athens received the International Road Federal award for safety in 2009 and the 10 miles of reversible elevated lanes (REL) of Tampa are practically accident free. In addition, automated lane keeping, intelligent cruise control and other safety technologies already built-into the luxury car market are increasingly being offered in mid-priced cars. Again, managed HOT lanes are perfect for taking advantage of advanced safety systems and future improvements. Unlike trains that are always in close contact with people, HOT lane traffic is never in close contact with pedestrians. (Score = 10)

Fatalities and Injuries per Vehicle Miles Traveled

RAIL: Honolulu rail is projected to move such a tiny proportion of Oahu’s trips (less than 3% of the daily trips) so its effect on improving safety will be tiny. (Score = 8)

HOT Lanes: While the lanes themselves will not carry more than 5% of Oahu’s daily trips, they will provide a substantial congestion relief to parallel roads including the H-1 Freeway thereby reducing rear-end accidents which are typical in congested conditions. A portion of motorists and bus and vanpool passengers will be able to travel on a perfectly safe 10 mile segment of roadway. (Score = 10)

Summary

Based on the Safety goal and its two metrics, HOT Lanes score 20 points and Elevated Rail scores 15 points.

National Performance Metrics Comparison of Honolulu’s Elevated Rail and HOT Lane Proposals. Goal 2 of 3: Energy and Environment

Let’s briefly analyze how 20 miles of rail with 21 stations and 10 miles of HOT lanes would score in an application in Honolulu based on three goals and six NTPP metrics that were presented in a previous blog.

In order to reach a bottom line, the best alternative for each goal will receive a score of 10 and the second best will receive a relative score between 0 and 10. Note that these metrics address deeper goals and treat congestion as an outcome. For congestion relief alone HOT lanes would score a 10 and rail a 1.

In this part we focus on NTPP goal 2 which is Energy and Environment. This goal has two metrics, petroleum consumption and CO2 emissions. Brief descriptions of the compared RAIL and HOT Lanes alternatives are provided here.

Petroleum Consumption

RAIL: While nationally rail may be powered by a mix of coal, hydroelectric and nuclear power, on Oahu over 95% of electric power is generated by burning oil and coal. Unfortunately during off-peak hours trains tend to run nearly empty. They draw a lot of oil-based electricity power for very little transportation work. Also the rail will only reduce car trips by 1.1%, so oil dependence for cars will not be diminished. Worse yet, congestion with rail will be terrible during construction and after it opens. Overall petroleum consumption and dependence will be high with rail. Score = 3.

HOT Lanes: Have the advantage that from day 1 they can serve hybrid buses, hybrid cars and electric cars. Lanes on the HOT lanes can also provide under-the-roadway induction conduits so electric buses can run on them. Electric buses will draw oil and coal based electricity. However, electric cars and plug-in hybrids can easily be charged at home or work by solar panels and mini-wind mills as shown in this couple of installations near the UH-Manoa.



These devices provide an opportunity for distributed renewable energy which is heavily incentivized today: $7,500 federal tax credit and $4,500 Hawaii tax credit for an electric car; 30% federal tax credit and 35% Hawaii tax credit for solar panels; $2,000 federal and state credit for a car charger at home (actual cost to user ~$200.) The U.S. and Hawaii energy policy favors electric car purchases not usage of fixed rail. Construction of 10 miles of HOT lanes is only one third as disruptive as rail and after they open congestion will improve by over 25%. Score = 10.

CO2 Emissions

RAIL: Unlike the mainland where hydro and nuclear power accounts for almost 30% of electricity generation (and oil accounts for barely over 1.1%), Oahu’s electricity is almost entirely based on oil and coal so the CO2 emissions of rail on Oahu will be terrible because they are proportional to oil dependence. Severe congestion during rail’s construction and its minimal benefit afterward result in a highly polluting final outcome. Oil and coal account for over 95% of electric power generation on Oahu. Strong incentives for solar power roof-top deployments affect individual users and do not lessen the rail’s dependence on oil-based electricity. Score = 2.

HOT Lanes: The future lies in electric automobility as the incentives above clearly demonstrate. The Oak Ridge National Laboratory (ORNL) demonstrated that wind turbine energy is best at night, but that is a time that society needs electricity the least… except for thousands of electric cars charging from the grid with wind energy. ORNL has identified this as a perfect synergy. HOT Lanes are perfectly positioned to serve electric cars, vans and buses and dramatically reduce CO2 emissions. HOT lanes dramatically reduce CO2 pollution from day 1 by reducing corridor congestion by 25% or more. Score = 10.

Summary

Based on the Energy and Environment goal and its two metrics, HOT Lanes score 20 points and Elevated Rail scores 5 points.

National Performance Metrics Comparison of Honolulu’s Elevated Rail and HOT Lane Proposals. Goal 1 of 3: Economic Growth

Let’s briefly analyze how 20 miles of rail with 21 stations and 10 miles of HOT lanes would score in an application in Honolulu based on three goals and six NTPP metrics that were presented in a previous blog.

In order to reach a bottom line, the best alternative for each goal will receive a score of 10 and the second best will receive a relative score between 0 and 10.

Note that these metrics address deeper goals and treat congestion as an outcome. For congestion relief alone HOT lanes would score a 10 and rail a 1.

In this part we focus on NTPP goal 1 which is Economic Growth. This goal has four metrics but two of them relate to long-distance commerce and travel; they apply to Hawaii when maritime or air transportation is considered.

Brief System Descriptions

RAIL: Fully elevated heavy rail starting about a mile east of Kapolei in the middle of prime agricultural land (presently Aloun and other farms) and ending inside Ala Moana Center with 21 stations and three or four park and ride facilities accommodating fewer than 5,000 cars. Headways are 3 minutes in peak periods, 6 minutes off peak. Trains have a capacity of 300 people of which two thirds are standees. Double track design with no express trains. The system will recover 0% of the capital costs and only 10%-20% of its O&M costs from fares. Capital cost estimated at $5.4 Billion and annual O&M cost at $70 Million/year.

HOT Lanes: 10 miles of elevated 3-lane reversible expressway designed for High Occupancy and Toll operation where buses and large carpools enter free. Low and solo occupancy vehicles pay a graduated toll (e.g., from $0.50 to $5.00). The toll is “congestion insurance.” Paying the toll guarantees 50 mph travel at all times. Higher tolls are necessary to discourage overloading. The facility has Aloha Stadium as its anchor (mid-point) and has exits at Pearl Harbor, Lagoon Drive and Waiakamilo. It starts at the H-1/H-2 merge and ends in Iwilei. The 2.2 miles from Keehi Interchange to Iwilei is a shovel ready project (signed EIS) as “The Nimitz Viaduct.) The system will recover at least one third of its capital costs and 100% of its O&M costs from tolls. Capital cost estimated at $1.7 Billion and annual O&M cost at $20 Million/year.

Access to Jobs and Labor (metropolitan accessibility)

RAIL: National research has shown that rail’s limited reach does not help the jobless to find jobs and is not helpful for those with multiple jobs; and we have many of the latter on Oahu. Rail is a mode for white collar commuters; this is a relatively small market in Hawaii’s service oriented and dispersed industry. Many workers drop off or pick up children from school before work; rail is no good for them. Combinations of rail and bus and walk for door-to-door travel result in uncompetitive travel times compared to direct bus, carpool or car modes. Rail’s original score of 4 is further reduced by 2 points because rail is incapable of providing transportations for goods and services which are vital for the economy and part of this criterion. Score = 4-2 = 2.

HOT Lanes: Nationally HOT lanes is the solution for rapid transportation and the best way to make express buses competitive with the auto and succeed in getting people “out of their cars.” An express bus from Waikele or Waipio on the HOT lanes would reach downtown in under 20 minutes in the middle of rush hour. These express buses can continue to major destinations in Kalihi, Kakaako, Waikiki, and UH. Also Oahu has among the nation’s highest carpool and vanpool rates. HOT lanes are designed to serve these high occupancy modes. HOT lanes provide fast travel for the provision of services (e.g., an electrician can get from Kapolei to Kalihi in under 30 minutes at 7 AM) and offer congestion relief to parallel routes (e.g., H-1 Freeway) which is used heavily for transporting goods. Score = 10.

Access to Non-work Activities (metropolitan accessibility)

RAIL: A very small portion of the population should be expected to use rail for non-work activities such as groceries, shopping, social visits, school events, soccer practice, night clubbing, out on a date, etc. Rail loses 1 point for being unable to be of any use during an emergency such as freeway closure, flooding, hurricane and tsunami. Score = 6-1 = 5.

HOT Lanes: The Honolulu design is for a reversible configuration which is tailored to serve commuting flows so it only partially improves access to the variety of non-work activities that people engage in. It is tailored however to work well for large events at Aloha Stadium by working in-bound to the stadium before the event starts and out-bound at event’s end for quick evacuation. The HOT lanes can also serve as a reliable emergency-only backbone during an emergency. Score = 10.

Summary

Based on the Economic Growth goal and its two metrics, HOT Lanes score 20 points and Elevated Rail scores 7 points.

NTPP Transportation Performance Metrics

The National Transportation Policy Project sponsored by the Bipartisan Policy Center produced Performance Driven: New Vision for U.S. Transportation Policy

“This report presents the findings of an intensive, two year effort to develop multi-stakeholder consensus recommendations for a forward-looking American transportation policy. This report is the product of a bipartisan group of 26 members of diverse expertise and affiliations, addressing many complex and contentious topics.”

The report states that “Without clearly articulated goals, it is not surprising that there has been little accountability for the performance of most federal transportation programs and projects to date. The result has been an emphasis on revenue sharing and process, rather than on results. There is no federal requirement to optimize “returns” on public investments, and current programs are not structured to reward positive outcomes, or even to document them.”

As an actionable item the Project developed specific performance metrics. “The performance metrics, must be fair, transparent, and free of bias toward particular transportation modes or geographic regions. The list below summarizes the performance metrics NTPP recommends for measuring performance.”

Economic Growth
(1) Access to jobs and labor (metropolitan accessibility)
(2) Access to non-work activities (metropolitan accessibility)

Energy and Environment
(1) Petroleum consumption
(2) CO2 emissions

Safety
(1) Fatalities and injuries per capita
(2) Fatalities and injuries per Vehicle Miles Traveled (VMT)

The report provides a lot of details and concludes that “Fundamental reform is needed. The alternative is to allow America’s transportation systems to continue to fall short of meeting the multi-faceted demands increasingly being placed on them—with collective costs to the economy, our quality of life, and the environment that can only grow over time.”

NEXT BLOG: Performance Metrics Comparison of Honolulu’s Heavy Rail and HOT Lane Proposals.

The Triumph of Pork over Purpose [Needs to Be Reversed]

The article with the "spot on" title Pork over Purpose was published on a most unfortunate date (the day before 9/11/2001) in a most unlikely publication, The Blueprint of the Democratic Leadership Council. The DLC provides perspective and advice to elected Democrats.

The Triumph of Pork over Purpose was written by David Luberoff of Harvard University's Kennedy School of Government.

Notable highlights of the article include the following.

There is no national purpose driving federal highway and transit funding programs. Instead, a variety of special interests -- from contractors and unions to environmentalists and urbanists -- have come to view the national highway and transit program as an opportunity. [Interestingly most environmentalists and urbanists are strongly against the proposed elevated rail for Honolulu, so the project is politician and union driven.]

Earmarked funding for an increasing number of projects: There were only a handful of earmarks in the 1982 act reauthorizing highway and transit laws, but the 1987 measure contained funding for about 150 specific projects --one of the rationales President Reagan cited in his unsuccessful veto of that law. In contrast, no one blinked an eye when ISTEA earmarked money for more than 500 highway and transit projects or when TEA-21 included more than 1,800 earmarks. [Earmarks is one manifestation of pork over purpose. But there are several other ways to promote pork. For example one can declare carbon emissions an enemy and start throwing money at anything that promises carbon emissions reductions. Then "green" causes a lot of real red. The huge deficits of Spain and California prove this.]

The prospect of significant federal funding drives states and localities to build projects that they never would undertake if they had to fund even a significant portion of the costs themselves. For example, the funding strategy for virtually every major rail transit project built in the last three decades -- from Los Angeles' Red Line to Seattle's current troubled project -- has been predicated on securing significant federal funding for those projects because local officials knew that local voters would never have approved local taxes needed to fully fund those projects. [It's worth repeating that 80% to 90% of the funding for H-1, H-2 and H-3 freeways came from FHWA, but only about 25% of the funding for rail may come from the FTA.]

The pressure for special projects and programs creates a process that is politically compelling but one that also is far from economically efficient. And that means that we're not spending the money we have in ways likely to produce significant positive payoffs by either making the economy more efficient or improving the quality of many people's lives. [This is another spot on statement: Infrastructure is paid by taxes. If the wrong infrastructure is built, then taxes are simply wasted.]

The four highlights above --that are worth about 30 Billion Dollars in Hawaii and over One Trillion Dollars in the U.S. as a whole-- explain why I am motivated to seek high elected office with power over infrastructure decisions.