Ten Plus One Reasons Why I Do Not Support The Honolulu Rail Project

1. Among all travel options on Oahu, mass transit serves 6% of the travelers, just slightly above the U.S average of 5%. Focusing on this small piece of the pie is no way to solve the mobility problem of the 80% that drive and carpool, i.e., rail is the 1% solution because City's rosy numbers show that transit share will grow from 6% now to 7% with rail.
2. Spending over five billion dollars for a non-solution is clearly unethical and all responsible for it are breaching their professional and fiduciary duty. As an engineering professional and past candidate for mayor I want no part in this unethical endeavor.
3. The original system was supposed to be 34 miles through Kapolei to UH and Waikiki for about $3 Billion as shown in the headline above.  The current project starts a mile out of Kapolei and dead-ends at Ala Moana shopping center with no service to Waikiki or UH. Just 20 miles for over $5 Billion. If offering the public 41% less for a 73% higher price is not a lie then what is it?
4. In some respects Oahu's congestion is comparable to that of the largest cities in the nation chiefly because Oahu is lane deficient.  20 miles of rail and 20 overhead stations will cause critical lane closures and result in debilitating congestion for a decade or more. For example, look at the image below and consider what traffic in downtown Honolulu will be like with Ala Moana Boulevard closed for about a year? The impact on quality of life, economy and tourism will be huge.
5. B, C, E, 3, 9, 11, 20, 43, 53, 73, 81, 90, 91, 92, 93, 94, 96, 97, 98A, 101, 102, 103, 201, 202 are all the bus routes that will be eliminated or terminated to the nearest rail station. TheBus will be changed from a core operation to a feeder operation. This will add a lot of inconvenience and disappointment to the people that need transit service the most.
6. Rail is high security risk. Mentally ill shooters and terrorists typically attack work, school and train station locations. Third rail systems like Honolulu's are a magnet for suicides. Train stations are a hot spot for robberies and drug trafficking.
7. Rail makes Honolulu less resilient:It is practically certain that a major storm will hit Oahu in the next 50 years. Ten miles of reversible lanes not only will reduce congestion by over 30% for one third the cost of rail, but also they will be a critical backbone for post-storm recovery. Instead rail will be incapacitated for a prolonged period and critical resources will wasted to revive it.
8. Cannot afford it. Hawaii is among the five worse states in the country in pension and health benefit funding liability. Future budgets will be very tight for the state. Outer islands should worry about their loss of big subsidies they receive from Oahu (i.e., they too will pay for it.)
9. The City already has big problems finding a few million dollars for important services. Its budgets will be crushed by the union raises, the EPA sewer consent decree and the pension liabilities. Then add the rail construction cost-overruns and bankruptcy may not be far off.
10. Out of more than 650,000 adults on Oahu only 156,000 voted YES to rail in the 2008 elections. That yielded a marginal 50.6% approval among those who bothered to vote. During elections the ratio of pro-rail lies to anti-rail information in advertising media was more than 10 to 1. Taxpayer monies were used to support rail and, indirectly, rail-supporting politicians. Calling this a "mandate" is disingenuous and the process was indeed unethical.

Last but not least, the aesthetics of the system are undesirable for the small, tropical capital of Honolulu. Here is just one before/after picture offered in city's renderings.

The Driverless Car

The driverless car is explained in this installment of my O'lelo show PANOS 2050: Solutions for a Sustainable Hawaii.

No need for a driver's license!
Will the blind drive?
No more taxi drivers?
The end of insurance payments?

Driverless cars are a Pandora's box of opportunities and challenges. This 30 minute show sheds some light on them.

Ode to the American Freeway

History, Landscape, Beauty on the American Freeway is a brief summary of the many positives of freeways for the U.S. University of Illinois at Chicago professor emeritus of Art history, Architecture and Urban Planning Robert Bruegmann developed a well written piece with great photos as a bonus.  Here are a couple of the opening passages.

"Freeways, particularly urban freeways, have had a bad press for several decades now.  They are accused of despoiling scenery, destroying habitat and causing urban sprawl.  Many observers report with glee on the latest news of a small segment of urban freeway being dismantled.

This blanket condemnation makes it easy to overlook the remarkable contribution that these freeways have made to the American economy and to American culture.  It is hard to imagine the growth in productivity in the country during the postwar years without these roads, which vastly increased the mobility of goods and people and connected parts of the country together in ways that were unprecedented.

The constant criticism also makes it difficult to appreciate these roads as cultural artifacts and a wonderful way to see the country." [Link to the article.]

Remember that free in freeway comes from free-from-interruptions such as stop signs and traffic signals; not free-of-charge for their use.  Whether by gas tax, toll or other taxation, freeways need to be paid for. But keep in mind that:

• Moving one person one mile on the freeway costs about $1 all inclusive (i.e., cost for the design, construction and maintenance of the freeway plus the vehicle to use on it).
• Moving one person one mile on transit (all inclusive) costs about $5 (and the calculation assumes that buses use the roads for free.)
• All goods, delivery and emergency services run on freeways. None of them run on transit.

Plan Bay Area: Urban Planning as a Form of 21st Century Illogical Dictatorship. Part 2

Part 2 is lawsuit galore. Barely two weeks after its acceptance by Bay area planning and transit agencies, Plan Bay Area was Sued From the Right and the Left!  Of course the myopic view of Sierra Club forces them to sue the Plan for daring support some highway transportation.  As I have demonstrated in my critique of the Plan, its emphasis on transit is totally wrong. Sierra Club wants more emphasis on top of emphasis on transit. It is quite clear to me that the title Lunatic Left is becoming a fundamental characterization.

Plan Bay Area: Urban Planning as a Form of 21st Century Illogical Dictatorship. Part 1

Part 1 by Wendell Cox explains why the well intentioned Plan Bay Area makes the wrong assumptions and picks the wrong solutions. As a result it barely makes the pollution targets they are after!  Sample estimates by Cox are shown the picture below.  Telling people what to do is not the way to do it.

The Next 100 MW Power Plant for Oahu

Gabriel El-Swaify, recent Masters graduate from the Department of Civil Engineering at UH-Manoa, describes his analysis leading to the best choice for "The Next 100 MW Power Plant on Oahu" that he conducted as part of his graduate study. I was the supervisor of this analysis.

Gabriel analyzed both renewable (e.g., wind) and traditional feedstock (e.g., coal) for power plants. He also accounted for land use (land acreage needed for the plant and its accessories) and long term maintenance as well as stand-by power requirements when renewable sources are not available.

Waste-to-energy and Geothermal power plants are among the best choices as explained in this installment of my O'lelo show PANOS 2050: Solutions for a Sustainable Hawaii.

News Behind the News - The Scoop on the Condition of Oahu's Roads

Half hour TV interview with Malia Zimmerman.

Electric Vehicles Are Here to Stay. In Moderate Numbers.

The MIT Review titles the infographic below: Electric Vehicles are Here to Stay.

Yes, but the case for them is not particularly strong and their market penetration will be small for a very long time, for two big reasons.  One is EV's marginal environmental benefit. The infographic clearly shows that the big improvement comes when a gasoline-powered vehicle is converted to hybrid: Its emissions drop from 0.87 pounds of CO2 per mile to 0.57 pounds per mile. All the fuss to get to EV cuts CO2 down only to 0.54 pounds per mile (and probably leaves a much bigger problem with battery recycling at the end.) In addition this estimate does not likely account for all the charging infrastructure that is being installed from scratch.

The second reason is the affordable price of fuel, gasoline in particular. It will be priced at around $4 per gallon for a long time thanks to major forces that work against major price increases, such as:

1. Hydraulic fracturing of fracking for natural gas extraction, which curbs the demand for oil by vast amounts. (In 2000 fracking yielded 1% of the natural gas production in the US. In 2010 it yielded 20% of the production. A breakneck acceleration in such a capital intensive industry thanks to my fellow Greek and father of fracking George Phydias Mitchell.)
2. Sustained oil prices in the $50 to $100 per barrel make expensive explorations affordable, so a healthy supply of oil will be available to satiate the increasing demands of the developing world.
3. Substantially decreased demand for gasoline due to the popularity of high mpg vehicles (CAFE requirements and sales success of hybrids and plug-in hybrids; can't buy a Hummer anymore.)
4. Less travel due to persistent high unemployment and mega economic downers such as debt, deficit, bankrupt cities and countries, and looming pension and health care social costs in the US.
5. Continued public and private investment in renewable sources of energy.

Light-Rail to Nowhere: Honolulu, Hawaii's Train Boondoggle

The Reason Foundation provides succinct coverage of Honolulu rail. It is, of course, about politics, development and money. Lots of money. Only the gullible and the railigious believe that heavy rail from the middle of ag land to a shopping center will have any traffic relief.

Panos Prevedouros, one of the state's leading transportation experts, says the rail plan that the feds approved will siphon off state funding for the area's bus system. The project's own report, which Prevedouros says is filled with overly optimistic estimates of rail ridership, still shows that Honolulu's congestion will be worse in the future with rail. “The point of doing any cost effectiveness type of analysis is out of the window,” says Panos, “the benefits are not there.”

The Ninth Circuit Court of Appeals has ordered an expedited hearing for the federal rail lawsuit on August 15th.

Watch the well-made 8 minute video by Sharif Matar.

Honolulu 1990 to 2010 Trends: What Do They Mean for the Next 20 Years?

Important trends for Honolulu and Hawaii over the past 20 years and what this means for the next 20 years is explained in this installment of my O'lelo show PANOS 2050: Solutions for a Sustainable Hawaii.

This subject was also covered earlier this year: Hawaii Over The Past 20 Years: Minimal Change, Minimal Growth. What Should Hawaii Plan For?

A Terrible Week for Rail

Paris, France
French Wreck Reveals Hidden Danger in Its Vaunted Train System

Washington, DC, USA
Obama Administration Puts Brakes on XpressWest High-Speed Rail Project
This is the California-Nevada High Speed Rail proposal.

Honolulu, HI, USA

Federal Judge slaps HART hard by revealing profound contradictions and stupidity. Excerpts from Judge Mollway's letter to HART below.

"On behalf of the United States District Court for the District of Hawaii, I submit that the Draft Supplemental EIS fails to give adequate consideration to the Beretania Street Tunnel Alternative.

Remarkably, the Project's proposed rail route fails to run along "the highly
congested east-west transportation corridor between Kapolei and UH Manoa," the very
corridor expressly identified as the route the Project is intended to serve.

The EIS unrealistically posits that a UH student, after riding the rail to Ala Moana, can transfer to a bus to get to the UH campus and, even including the time spent getting to the bus boarding area and waiting for the bus, arrive within 9 minutes.

• Waianae to UH Manoa via Beretania Street Tunnel: 84 minutes
• Current Route of the Project: 93 minutes"

Obviously judge Mollaway can do better math than HART's hired un-professionals. Even today during a normal school day I would have to dart in traffic in my sporty Miata in the rush hour to go from Ala Moana Center to the UH-Manoa were I work, in nine minutes. The city bus is no Miata and the likely time of the bus is well over 15 minutes. So the judge's comparison needs to be updated as follows:

• Waianae to UH Manoa via Beretania Street Tunnel: 84 minutes
• Current Route of the Project: 100 minutes

Clearly the United States District Court for the District of Hawaii has a point.


North American urban transit security (July 11 headlines)

NY: Subway Study Eyes Dispersal of Chemical Weapons Subway riders can expect to see in stations Tuesday the installation of special equipment scientists will use as part of an experiment to see how... More » ON: Toronto Storm Causes Chaos Throughout City and on Train MO: Woman Upset Over a Seat Splashes Gasoline on Metro Bus Passengers MA: Man Struck, Killed by Train IL: Man Dies After Falling on Third Rail Don't Text and Walk: Pedestrians Step in Front of Trains PA: Nude Man Shot During Berserk Rampage

ON: All GO Transit Riders Rescued From Flooded Train: Toronto Police Hundreds of passengers that were stranded on a flooded GO Transit rush-hour train following heavy rain have been rescued, Toronto police said early Tuesday morning.

WI: Agitated Drunken Man Assaults 3 on County Bus: Police BC: Transit Police Warn of e-device Thefts in City MA: Transit Police Search for Man Accused of Spitting on Driver

Brief Insight on the Kakaako Development and Honolulu's Trifecta of Failures

Up to 5,000 new apartment and condominium units are being planned by the HCDA in Kakaako, Honolulu. This section of Honolulu is already the most traveled and congested. What would be the likely impact of such concentrated, high density development?

In the field of transportation planning and engineering we rely on the Trip Generation Manual produced by the Institute of Transportation Engineers headquartered in Washington, D.C. I have the 8th edition issued in 2008. 

It says that High Rise Apartments (land use 222) generate 0.30 trips per unit during the peak hour between 7 and 9 AM. The peak period in Kaka'ako is roughly the same. Of these trips, 75% are outbound (leaving the building) and 25% are inbound. Given that Kakaako is at a location near the center of the city and Waikiki, quite a few of these trips will be on foot, bike or bus. So instead of assuming that 90%-95% of the trips will be by auto, let's assume that 80% of the trips will be by auto.

If 5,000 new units were occupied in Kaka'ako "tomorrow", then there would be: 

5,000 x 0.30 x 0.75 x 0.80 = 900 new vehicle trips during the morning peak hour

If we stack all of them on Kapiolani Blvd., this estimate means that an exclusive new lane would be needed just to maintain similar congestion conditions as now. But there is no room for lane additions so the traffic impact will be immense.

This is similar to the situation prevailing today: Because of sewer work, contraflow on Kapiolani Blvd. was not in effect until past McCully St. (town-bound from Kaimuki) so it took me three cycles to go past the Kapiolani/Date traffic light. Over five minutes to traverse one major intersection! 

As I have frequently mentioned, Honolulu is the most lane deficient city of about one million people in the US (per capita, it is worse than LA, Chicago, etc.) Adding more density will cause the central road network to seize. It already does when there is major rainfall or a couple of typically uncoordinated lane closures on major streets.

The "Establishment" supported and thrived with the quick profiteering from the Second City. Second City profit-making has subsided due to the lack of road capacity and it will collapse with the mess of 10+ years of rail construction due to lane closures. After destroying the Ewa Plains, and causing major infrastructure liabilities, now it is time for the Establishment to come back and densify Kakaako and Kalihi. 

A dense urban ribbon between Waikiki and the airport should have been the original plan instead of the Second City 22 miles away from Waikiki. That plan should have come with high rises, urban underpasses, large underground parking, and possibly a 10-mile underground metro from Waikiki to Airport and perhaps to Aloha Stadium. The plan should have had new utility lines installed in secondary streets such as Waimanu Rd. and Queen St. instead of under major arterial streets such as Ala Moana and Kapiolani Boulevards. 

If you recall, since 1995 Kapiolani Blvd. has been a continuous construction zone. Now Ala Moana Blvd. is another work zone. As long as main utilities are under them, labe closures will never stop and pavement will be a patchwork. 

With the 

1. Second City/Ewa Development Plan, 
2. The Rail and,
3. The HCDA/Kakaako Development 

the Establishment has created the ultimate trifecta of (predictable) failures at a time when Honolulu can least afford to make mistakes and start new massive liabilities while the massive liabilities of

• Sewer EPA consent decree
• One water main break a day
• The worst pavement condition in the last 30 years
• Public employee pension unfunded liability
• Public employee health coverage unfunded liability

are here and 100% real.

More Intelligent Technology. Fewer Jobs.

The MIT Review article How Technology Is Destroying Jobs summarizes the potential on-set of the Human Labor-free Economy. Others call it the Autonomous Economy; an economy that runs without people!

This is of course an exaggeration but the fact is that since people invented tools many laborious tasks became simpler. Then the industrial revolution accelerated the pace of machine substitution of the labor. However, the big and varied tools and machines wound up increasing the demand of human labor because they changed the scale of what is achievable in agriculture, infrastructure, war equipment, etc.

Then came IT, computers and robotics. The MIT Review graph below illustrates the decoupling between Economic Productivity and Employed Labor. Automated vehicle manufacturing plants, automated warehouses, automated luggage handlers, etc. are already present. Currently at some health providers the first level diagnosis of patient ailment is conducted by registered nurses who also have some prescription authority. A large number of patients do not see an MD.

The short term outcome was angrily revealed by the Occupy Wall Street movement nearly two years ago: The MIT Review a notes that big progress in technology grows the economy and creates wealth, “but there is no economic law that says everyone will benefit. In other words, in the race against the machine, some are likely to win while many others lose.” Income inequality is a well researched topic.

However, this analysis on the effects of technology on labor is only the beginning. The hundreds of thoughtful comments below the article are enlightening and perhaps frightening.

• In the future, people may be “chipped” like animals. As a result there will be no need for laborious ID inspections at airports and elsewhere. There will be much less need for credit cards or buying tickets for transit, theater and museum admission, etc. The individual’s presence is enough to trigger a charge which minimizes the need for conductors, inspectors and clerks.

• Autonomous cars are here and they drive in actual traffic. They will take several more years to perfect but eventually there may be no need for taxi drivers, bus drivers and trash collectors.

• Mail, if there is paper mail 50 years from now, can be fully robotized. The central processing at major handlers such as USPS, FedEx and UPS is already automated.

• Distance learning is quickly becoming ubiquitous. The number of college courses is finite.  A few thousand of the "best professors” in each subject may tape the lecture and offer real time updates thus reducing the need for tens of thousands of in-class lecturers and professors.

A very large part of the population on Earth is still developing, so substitution of labor will take a long time because it takes an advanced and rich economy with the knowledge and capital base to develop the substitution, and eventually result in gross social instability as unemployment departs the tolerable 10% and moves to 30% or more.

If the means are found to control social instability, accelerating substitution is not sustainable unless regional Uber Governments are formed that control all the machines and humans on a continental scale. The central authority will regulate human birth rate, goods consumption and life duration, to keep a balance. Not surprisingly national and local policies for such control of human activity already exist.


One of the long term effects of unemployment (and draconian controls) is lower birth rate. This puts the Earth on a more sustainable path because the current path of population growth and consumption is clearly unsustainable.

There is also some likelihood that an electromagnetic pulse or an IT superbug will render this interconnected IT and automation useless. At that point, the remaining third world populations will have a distinct advantage.


The most likely short term outcome is that the recently observed trend of accelerating income disparity and unemployment will continue. The regulation of automation may follow to control unemployment and social instability.

The long term outcome has been postulated by MIT researchers since the early 1970s: For many reasons such as technological substitution, energy availability and cost, climate change combined with food production for an ever increasing population will produce a vast global imbalance. As a result, around 2030 they predicted, there will be a global reduction of the standard of living and population.

Five Facts about Kapolei

Flyover Traffic Rings

One in Athens, Greece connects two arteries to a freeway (Attica Tollway, top.)

The other in Shanghai, China removes pedestrians from a complex 5-approach roundabout (bottom.)

Circuit of the Americas: Racing to the Finish

"When in 2010 the city of Austin, Texas, was awarded the United States Grand Prix for 10 years, plans to construct the Formula 1 racetrack there, the Circuit of the Americas, quickly got under way, and an unlikely midsize civil engineering and surveying firm was awarded the civil engineering design contract."

This is a fascinating story of infrastructure development for a top flight world sporting event. Read this open article starting on page 64 of the Civil Engineering Magazine, May 2013 issue, of the American Society of Civil Engineers: Racing to the Finish.

Tesla Is Reinventing the Industrial and Infrastructure Process

Tesla is not only reinventing the car...  They are reinventing applied science, industrial product development and infrastructure planning.

At Toyota "we get a lot of standards and specifications, then we build a prototype and test it. At Tesla they get the standards and specifications set, and then change it on the fly. They spend more time in the validation phase. We spend more time in up-front planning.”

Typically we plan and design infrastructure (e.g., energy and transportation systems) too much. But rarely we go back and validate whether systems really worked as intended...

Unofficial assessments:

• Did the H-3 Freeway meet its traffic target?  It exceeded it.
• Did the Kal. Hwy widening relieve Hawaii Kai to Kahala trip times? Travel times were reduced by over ~25%.

Official assessments:

• Do modern (built after 1995) light and heavy rail systems in any city in the US meet or exceed their planned ridership that justified their construction, after 5 or10 years in operation?
• Nine out of 10 failed to do this. Several of them spectacularly. The largest US failure (after Tren Urbano in Puerto Rico) will be Honolulu.

No Jones Act Relief for Hawaii in 2013

May 22: 17 Prominent Hawaii economists, business leaders, and professors ask Congress to Repeal 1920s Law Preventing Foreign Competition in Shipping.

May 28: Should Hawaii Be Exempted From The Jones Act? Lawsuit Says Yes

May 30: Court Says No -- U.S. District Court in Hawaii dismisses lawsuit challenging applicability of Jones Act in Hawaii

June 5: It will take a few more years but some relaxation of Jones Act requirements for Alaska, Hawaii and Guam is inevitable.

City Transport 2020: The Future Can't Come Soon Enough

Here is a sample compilation of technological breakthroughs reported in the second half of May 2013:

CNN: The future of travel: How driverless cars could change everything

The Economist: The future of the car -- Clean, safe and it drives itself

The Economist: How does a self-driving car work?

The Economist: Tesla "General Electric Motors" has high hopes for its high-spec electric cars

Daily Caller: Tesla electrifies the auto market (This week American electric auto manufacturer Tesla Motors (TSLA) broke $100 per share.)

INRIX Expands Real-time Traffic Coverage: US, EU. Traffic conditions in Honolulu at noon on May 29, 2013 compiled as a digital layer that can be used by in-vehicle, broadcasting and other means are shown at the end of this article.

New Geography: Driving Trends in Context
Figure 4: Drive alone, carpool, motorcycle and telecommuting are over 90%.

I foresee an epic battle: Google and the Technologists vs. Sierra Club and the Greenies.

Where are the Planners and Transit in this bright future? They are largely Irrelevant!

Back to now: Sadly greenies, liberal politicians and urban (transit) planners continue to waste a huge portion of public and transportation funds on Smart Growth, Rail Starts and Complete Streets. Like the current Plan Bay Area 2040 plan that allocates 62% of the transportation funding to the 10% mode of transportation.(1)

The new wave of automated urban transportation cannot come soon enough!

---------------
Note (1) Plan Bay Area Report: “The analysis for the most recent regional transportation plan, Transportation 2035, suggested that the region’s transit system is not sustainable based on current projections of transit costs and reasonably anticipated revenues. Transportation 2035 identified a region-wide transit capital deficit of $17 billion and operating budget deficits of $8 billion over the next 25 years.” These are staggering deficits for a transportation mode used by 10% of commuters and less than that by non-commuters.  Planners acknowledge that these deficits are not sustainable for the community. Yet Plan Bay Area calls for more deficit-making transit.

Honolulu Recycling Guide

The proper way to recycle household solid wastes in Honolulu is explained in this installment of my O'lelo show PANOS 2050: Solutions for a Sustainable Hawaii.

This subject was also covered in a pictorial guide a few months ago in this blog.

Handicapped Stalls for a StairMaster Trail!

I am sure you've heard the ironic saying "I am from the Government and I am here to help."

Here is proof of "I am from the Government and I am here to waste your tax money."

Koko Head trail is very demanding. "I'm 25 and in decent shape but this hike nearly killed me. It's short but super intense," said Heatherab87 on May 9, 2013.

I hiked it on May 21 and counted 1,115 tall steps. Hardly any hikers on this trail are overweight or over 50, or both (like me.) Many are fitness nuts.

In this case a couple handicapped stalls would be two too many, but ADA code requires six. So six of them with wide access isles were built. For over $100,000 expenditure these stalls are unlikely to see an annual occupancy of 1%.

Chinese Straddle Bus -- Take 2

It appears that the developers of the Air Bus or Chinese Straddle Bus have read some of my concerns with their concept.

The new animation of China TBS Ltd attempts to take care of several of them such as accidents on the road and overhead obstructions that are difficult to remove.

This urban transit options is likely better than light rail and BRT, particularly for large cities with long, straight and wide arterial streets. Developing Asian cities should be a prime market for this concept.

Have We "Solved" the US Energy Crisis? Update: No!

In the last couple of weeks I stumbled through some blog articles (e.g., These Charts Better Not Reflect The True State Of The US Economy) that describe an astonishing development: Gasoline consumption has collapsed! (... Not really: See update at the bottom.)

• Feb. 1993: 57 million gallons per day
• Feb. 2003: 61 million gallons per day (+7%)
• Feb. 2013: 28 million gallons per day (-54%)

See the data for yourself at the U.S. Energy Information Administration. I captured the graph below.

If this is not a hacker's job, we are witnessing momentous changes in the energy field. No wonder that Tesoro-Hawaii cannot find a buyer for its refinery at Campbell Industrial Park for over a year.

Also, the implications for the Highway Trust Fund and State DOTs are enormous. Their funding has been cut in half.

If this pattern is sustained, then all climate initiatives need to be shelved... "2040 targets" are already met!

The following reasons may explain this trend in part. I guestimate that the factors I list below can cause an one third reduction but I am not convinced that they can cause a staggering 54% reduction:

• Gas price: A 10% increase in fuel price may cause a 2% to 5% reduction in trips and/or trip length. High gas prices reduce discretionary trips but do not reduce trips with an important purpose such as work, school, trips to doctor and grocery store, etc.
• Persistently high gas price may lead people to change location; they move closer to work or school and they may replace a low efficiency car with a high efficiency car.
• Unemployment in the US is much higher than officially reported since people who have given up looking for work are no longer counted as unemployed.
• There is some evidence that ties with unemployment that younger Americans drive less.
• Hybrid cars, electric cars and cash-for-clankers cars replaced thousands of low MPG cars so roughly speaking the same thousands of vehicles now consume less than half that their predecessors did.
• HOT lanes (that promote carpooling and provide uncongested travel) and transit may have caused a marginal reduction. 

==============================================

UPDATE: Colleagues on the mainland and I are still investigating this because the data shown above are suspect. This EIA dataset of gas consumption is much flatter. Using these data, the annual consumption differences are as follows:

• 2002 to 2012 = -1.6%
• 2005 to 2012 = -8.2%

2005 was the year with the highest consumption, according to this set.

Better MPG across most light duty vehicles classes, Hybrids, EVs, Cash-for-clankers and a little less driving did cause a drop. An 8% drop is much more believable than a 54% drop. We still do not know if these are "data we can believe in."  

Why Aren’t Younger Americans Driving Anymore?

The nation's congestion problem has lessened largely due to youth unemployment and high fuel prices. Read this interesting Washington Post blog for more details.

One has to be careful to not overreact to the sharp change in the trend of miles driven because the graph is population adjusted. It shows the rate of driving per person. The rate is dropping but population is growing, so the next effect is likely a 1% to 5% reduction in traffic, depending on the area.

Do Europeans Use Transit a Lot? Perhaps, but Only in the Central City.

Recently I stumbled on an analysis of commutes in the second largest city in Germany, Hamburg.  It's an old and interesting city that I had the chance to visit it in the late 1980s when there were two Germanys, West with capital Bonn, and East with capital (half of) Berlin.

Germany is a country with substantial use of rail both in and between cities.  Hamburg is the second largest city in Germany. The county where Hamburg is situated has a population of about 1.8 million and the six surrounding suburban counties have a population of 1.5 million.

Unlike US cities which are characterized by very high (employment) density in the downtown and medium-to-low (population) density in areas surrounding the downtown, Hamburg and most old European cities have high (population and employment) densities over many acres. This makes the development of multiple rail lines meaningful and productive.  Their rail lines are compact in length and are supplemented by bus or tram. As a result, transit use is moderate.

Their suburbs have a low use of transit. Let's look at the shares in the image below.

In the city of Hamburg, 33% use car modes, 19% use transit and 38% walk or bike.  What's the largest difference between Europe and US. Is it transit use? No! It's Walk and Bike.

Walking and biking to/from work is more than 35% in Europe and less than 5% in the US.

In the suburbs of Hamburg transit drops to 7%. TheBus in Honolulu has a 6% share. Again the main difference is that even in the suburbs Europeans do a lot by walking and biking: 28% compared to less than 2% in US suburbs.

Some dense American cities like Honolulu look a lot like old European city suburbs. Like in Europe, the share of transit in the suburbs is rarely if ever over 10%. Investing on rail transit in suburban Europe or US cities is a poor decision both financially and for transportation productivity.

State of the Art Transportation and Other Technology

A conversation with IT guru Peter Kay on my program Panos 2050: Solutions for a Sustainable Hawaii.

Honolulu Officials Praise Ansaldo Rail Deal as Washington Metro Dumps the Cash Strapped Italian Company for Kawasaki

Grabauskas and the HART Board will say anything to excuse the inexcusable decision to buy troubled rail cars from a troubled rail car company in a troubled country on the other side of the planet, Prevedouros said.

Sierra Club Used Wrong Population Projections in Support of Honolulu’s Rail

If one wants to keep things simple, then it could be said that the base of Sierra Club's support for rail is simply a case of garbage in, garbage out.  In other words, garbage data were used to come to a garbage conclusion.  However, I believe that data were sufficiently twisted to support the underlying car-hating philosophy of "environmentalists."

In this case, the bias is clear because supporting rail (to kill auto) causes huge damage to prime agricultural land. The Sierra Club simply cannot have it both ways.

Explanations are provided in my article in the Hawaii Reporter.

100 Thousand!

The FIXOAHU blog has reached 100,000 all time visits today. That's way more than the readers of my books and scientific articles.

Mahalo, Thank You, Efharisto for reading my opinions from time to time.

Panel Discussion on Rail at University of Hawaii-Manoa

• Rail opponents UH Professors Randall Roth (Law) and Panos Prevedouros (Engineering)
• Rail proponents Dan Grabauskas, CEO of HART and Ivan Lui-Kwan, HART Board Member

Here's an independent "post-debate" assessment:

Dr. Prevedouros,

Thank you immensely for your participation in the April 9 rail debate at UH-Manoa.  There is no doubt that you and Professor Roth prevailed.  You both showed the audience and Daniel Grabauskas and Ivan Lui-Kwan that the case against rail is very powerful.

It would be ideal if the truth about rail could continue to be made known to the public, many of whom voted to approve steel wheels on steel rail without really understanding the downsides of rail.  The more people learn the whole truth about rail, the more ready they could become to rise up and demand that the persons responsible for foisting rail on the public be held accountable when it becomes apparent that the billions spent on this scheme have irretrievably gone into a gigantic "black hole."  I would hate to see the culprits simply ride off into the sunset.

Again, many thanks for your invaluable efforts to expose the monumental steel wheels blunder.

K. Hirata

Big Rooftop Solar Panels Make Sense in Hawaii - Without Any Subsidies!

Question: Does $150,000 installed cost for approximately 45 KW make sense?

Answer: Yes, but only in Honolulu.

Explanation: There’s a lot involved, so off to Hawaii Reporter for the full article.

Want a Fine Electric Car? Not in Hawaii.

The Tesla S is a fine EV, comparable to a BMW 5 series or a Mercedes S class.  Tesla argues that their model S can also be cheaper than its competitors. It has developed a calculator to prove it, based on location, incentives, fuel and electricity prices, and owner annual mileage.

I looked into the Tesla S and made some calculations. A couple of months ago I mentioned on the Rick Hamada Program on KHVH that my estimates indicated that in Hawaii if I was choosing between a $50,000 Tesla S and a $50,000 BMW 528i,  I should buy the BMW. (Cars were optioned so that with EV incentives they came with approximately the same "out the door" cost.)

This is the outcome of outrageous electricity prices which, thanks to renewable energy mandates and meddling politicians who pick winners (for their own self-interests,) are continuously escalating,

As you can see below, the true cost to own a base Tesla S in Hawaii is 17% more than California and 34% more than Colorado (excluding applicable taxes, insurance and registration differences, etc.)

The Lack of New Warming Is a Surprise -- Recall Al Gore!

These two graphs from a major article in The Economist (see source below) clearly indicate that:

1.  Global Warming occurred between 1985 and 1998, but Earth's temp has remained fairly steady for 15 years now!
2. The predictions of Global Warming models are incorrect.
3. The yellow lines indicate the year when Al Gore and IPCC received the Nobel Prize "for their efforts to build up and disseminate greater knowledge about man-made climate change, and to lay the foundations for the measures that are needed to counteract such change" (the bold is mine.)

Global Warming alarmism has caused the inappropriate issuance of two Nobel Prizes (Gore and Obama) and the unnecessary brainwashing of millions of young children at their schools.  Global Warming alarmism gave more support to "environmentalists" whose most prominent successes are to pick the wrong winners (e.g., cost ineffective renewables and rail systems) and make life more expensive in first world populations, and more difficult to rise out of poverty for third world populations.

Now The Economist from Europe, where the core support of Global Warming alarmism is located, has provided some reasonable perspective which shows that:

• There is no denying that some Global Warming (GW) has taken place.
• GW has remained stable for at least a decade.
• Models used by the Intergovernmental Panel for Climate Change (IPCC) predict the wrong trend.
• GW did not increase despite the billions of tons of anthropogenic (man-made) CO2 emissions
• Arctic ice does melt to unusual levels in the summer months but no appreciable sea level rise has been recorded.
• Nobody knows what the real effects of an increasingly less possible GW are.

The main article of The Economist is titled Climate science: A sensitive matter -- Here are a few interesting quotes from this comprehensive article:

• "Temperatures fluctuate over short periods, but this lack of new warming is a surprise."
• "The mismatch between rising greenhouse-gas emissions and not-rising temperatures is among the biggest puzzles in climate science just now."
• Despite all the work on [the planet's] sensitivity [to carbon dioxide emissions,] no one really knows how the climate would react if temperatures rose by as much as 4°C.

Three days later The Economist added a short article to calm down Europe's socialists and Obama-like pro carbon taxation politicians (see last bullet below). These politicians need to keep people focused on secondary problems like the GW, because primary problems such as huge budget deficits and problematic pension and health care systems cannot be addressed in the socialist realm of thought. The short article is titled Global warming: Apocalypse perhaps a little later. Exact quotes below. The bold section is mine.

• The science that points towards a sensitivity lower than models have previously predicted is still tentative. The error bars are still there. The risk of severe warming—an increase of 3°C, say—though diminished, remains real.
• Bad climate policies, such as backing renewable energy with no thought for the cost, or insisting on biofuels despite the damage they do, are bad whatever the climate’s sensitivity to greenhouse gases. (Thank you for this. I am sorry to inform you that California, Hawaii, The Blue Planet Foundation and several "environmentalists" do not subscribe to reason, cost-effectiveness analysis or The Economist.)
• Good policies—strategies for adapting to higher sea levels and changing weather patterns, investment in agricultural resilience, research into fossil-fuel-free ways of generating and storing energy—are wise precautions even in a world where sensitivity is low.
• Put a price on carbon and ensure that, slowly but surely, it gets ratcheted up for decades to come. 

I enjoy The Economist for its variety of subjects, reasonable depth of analysis and humor.  I'm sorry, humour. I was disappointed that nowhere did they ask for a recall of Al Gore's and IPCC's Nobel. The two shared a Nobel Prize in 2007.

Hawaii Government Cannot Perform Basic Government Functions

Inspections is a very basic function of government. Inspections minimize errors and fraud.

On March 2013 Hawaii State Auditor reported on the Hawaii's Measurement Standards Branch.

The three bullets below are highlights of the auditor's summary. The third bullet is a true Jay Leno joke. But this one is real.

• The Measurement Standards Branch is tasked with enforcing the U.S. standards for weights and measures. Because of budget shortfalls since FY2010, the branch experienced a significant decline in the number of inspector positions. Currently, six of the branch’s 11 positions remain vacant, and we found that the branch’s two remaining inspectors can only perform eight of the branch’s 15 key regulatory functions.

• Inspections of measuring devices have fallen significantly. From FY2007 to FY2009, the branch inspected an average of 21% of small scales, 10% of medium scales, and 31% of gas pumps registered in the state. However, from FY2010 to FY2012, the branch inspected an average of only 2.6% of the small scales, less than 1% of medium scales, and 6.7% of the gas pumps registered in the state. Moreover, enforcement functions on the neighbor islands and packaging and labeling inspections throughout the state have ceased as of 2009.

• Recognizing these deficiencies, the 2012 Legislature appropriated $420,000 to restore a program manager and three new inspector positions. Almost a year later, the branch has been unable to fill these positions because the acting administrator has not addressed questions raised by the department’s personnel office regarding the program manager position. According to the acting administrator, the inspector positions cannot be filled until a program manager is hired to develop a training program. As a result, the branch is unable to resume its inspection duties or fulfill its responsibilities.

 

Local and International Threats to Hawaii's Sustainability

Earthquakes, Energy Supply, Tsunamis, Taxes and ... Politicians. A dozen long term threats to Hawaii's sustainability are explained in this installment of my O'lelo show PANOS 2050: Solutions for a Sustainable Hawaii.

Wind Power (DOWN), Natural Gas (WAY UP)

Forecast Dims for Future Growth in Wind Power

• "Even though total wind power capacity grew by 30 percent last year, with 13,000 megawatts in new wind turbines, the actual portion of our electricity coming from wind energy did not increase proportionally. "
• This is a huge understatement because next paragraph says: "But overall, wind power contributed only about 3.5% of all the electricity generated in the U.S. last year, up from 2.9% of the share in 2011."
• +30% in wind installations resulted in US wind power change from 2.9% to 3.5% a 0.6% gain.  NUTS!

Japan Just Opened Up a Whole New Source for Fossil Fuels

• The stores of offshore methane clathrates around Japan, says the BBC, are estimated at around 1.1 trillion cubic meters of the mix, enough to supply “more than a decade of Japan’s gas consumption.”
• The United States Geological Survey, says The Washington Post, estimates that gas hydrates worldwide “could contain between 10,000 trillion cubic feet to more than 100,000 trillion cubic feet of natural gas.”
• Some of that gas will never be accessible at reasonable prices. But if even a fraction of that total can be commercially extracted, that’s an enormous amount. To put this in context, U.S. shale reserves are estimated to contain 827 trillion cubic feet of natural gas.

In case I am not mistaken, Hawaii is surrounded by ocean ...

Honolulu Rail: A Textbook Case Of Poor Planning, Denial And Diversion

I sent this article to all elected officials in Honolulu's and Hawaii's government.
Mahalo to Honolulu Civil Beat for hosting my article.

This is an important article of national and local significance.
Honolulu's only daily, the Star Advertiser, would not publish it.
They have not published anything I have submitted since 2009.
Please show them that information cannot be suppressed.
Forward and share it widely.

I added this postscript: Now as a responsible pro-rail politician, go ahead and deny all these as not applicable to Honolulu. But then:

• The project is about three years late.
• It has incurred tens of millions of dollars in penalties.
• There was a costly (over $150 Million mistake at the airport alignment) for which no one was punished or paid for it.
• The project violated state law and was stopped.
• Ansaldo is the most unreliable of all major rail manufacturers. But this was Honolulu's choice.
• Ansaldo's parent, Finmecannica is in financial trouble and for years it's been trying to jettison Ansaldo. It will.
  
• HART is a clueless board. Imagine the same people as the board of Boeing or Hawaiian Air. Worse than useless.
• City erected a bunch of columns in the middle of (agricultural) land for which it has no ownership, deed or guarantee.
• The project budget is sored up with TheBus capital funds and city Sewer Fund guarantees. This will play out just fine...
• Do you recall the purchase of hundreds of tons of steel rails which are now properly rusting at Barbers Point Harbor?
• (I just recalled all these in 10 minutes. There is more. All these occurred with YOUR approval and consent.)

And

• As of mid-March 2013 the project is less than 3% constructed!
• Federal court appeal has been filled.
•  Several eminent domain suits or class action suit are likely.

Could Repeal of the Jones Act Actually Happen?

Transportation analyst and presidential advisor Bob Poole of the Reason Foundation raises this question, which is critical to Hawaii.  Here is his analysis:. All highlights were added by me.

"I’m not sure how many readers are aware of the Merchant Marine Act of 1920, generally known as the Jones Act.  For 90 years, this piece of protectionist legislation has been a politically sacred cow. It requires that all water-borne shipping from one U.S. port to another—whether along inland waterways, along coastwise routes, or between the mainland and Alaska, Hawaii, Guam, and Puerto Rico—be provided only via U.S.-made vessels, owned by U.S. companies, and operated by U.S. crews. The original rationale for this was national defense—but post-World War II, the military has made voluntary deals with major U.S. airlines to make certain planes available in times of military need, and the same could be done for ocean vessels. Today, the Jones Act is supported mostly by the seafarers unions and the dwindling number of companies that own and operate Jones Act ships.

The consequences of this legislation are many, and nearly all negative. My MIT classmate William Hockberger (naval architecture) described the impact on the U.S. marine industry to me this way:

“Our coastal and seagoing fleet is pathetic*, along with the marine industry that is supposed to provide and sustain it, as a result of the ‘protection’ that has prevailed for most of our country’s existence. If ship operating companies could buy ships on the open market, if shippers could use ship services provided by any company in the world (subject to some basic rules regarding human and environmental safety), if the money to buy the ships could come from anywhere, and crews didn’t have to be mainly U.S. citizens, we could have a marine industry much larger than it is and the economics would be very different. The cost of using a ship [versus some other mode] would be much lower, and in many cases a ship would be the preferred alternative.”

The very high costs resulting from the Jones Act have basically killed nearly all proposals for so-called “marine highway” shipping. Recent reports from the Maritime Administration, the Congressional Research Service, and the Center for Commercial Deployment of Transportation Technology have all blamed the high costs imposed by the Act for the lack of progress in coastwise shipping.

Other victims of the Jones Act are the people and industries of Alaska, Guam, Hawaii, and Puerto Rico, who pay what amount to monopoly prices for transportation of the food, consumer products, and energy that must be shipped in from the mainland. 

And then there are U.S. ports and waterways. The Jones Act also applies to all dredging vessels, ballooning the cost of maintenance dredging of inland waterways and deepening of major harbors.

Although the Jones Act has long been a sacred cow, there are several straws in the wind suggesting that change might be possible. Last November Honolulu attorney John Carroll filed a class action lawsuit against the federal government, arguing that the Act violates the Commerce Clause of the Constitution and subjects Hawaiians to a shared monopoly on shipments of imported goods. It seeks damages and a halt to enforcement of the Act.

Last month Americans for Tax Reform took up the cause, arguing that the Jones Act should be repealed because, among other things, it is driving up the cost (and reducing the extent) of shipping gasoline by water from the Gulf Coast to the Northeast.

And then there is the proposed free-trade agreement between the United States and the European Union. Among the items on the agenda for this proposed deal, according to The Economist, is to eliminate the protectionist restrictions on shipping imposed by the Jones Act.

As I noted in last month’s issue, Congress is planning to enact a new Water Resources & Development Act this year, dealing with both harbors and inland (as well as coastwise) waterways. This would be a good opportunity to tackle the reform or repeal of the Jones Act, a precondition for new investment in America’s maritime industry."

If you ever wondered why Senator Inouye and his followers are so successful in becoming "entrenched politicians" then the two words, Jones Act provide a big part of the answer. (All you have to do is check the campaign contributions for Hanabusa, Hirono, etc.)

(*) One of the main links of Hawaii to mainland US is Horizon Lines.The average age of Horizon’s fleet is 35 years as compared to 28 years for all Jones Act noncontiguous trade container ships, and 12 years in the international fleet. This is the picture of where US marine shipping is going with the Jones Act:

 

Improving Hawaii's Energy and Transportation Structures

Late February 2013 interviews with Hawaii Reporter's Malia Zimmerman:

• Dr. Panos Prevedouros: Improving Hawaii's Energy and Transportation Structures

• Former Hawaii Ben Cayetano talks about politics and economy 

Zig Ziglar's 10 Quotes That Can Change Your Life, And I

Zig Ziglar, the well known motivational speaker and author of many books on Sales and Personal Development died late last year. Forbes published these 10 Quotes That Can Change Your Life. I like them and have a mostly humorous response to them…

10) “Remember that failure is an event, not a person.”
True but if you do it often it can become am unwelcome cousin...

9) “You will get all you want in life, if you help enough other people get what they want.”
Quite possible, although God has a penchant for calling such saintly souls home early...

8 ) “People often say motivation doesn’t last. Neither does bathing—that’s why we recommend it daily.”
Indeed, Marine cadets get their motivation hourly. Too old for that. Off to the shower then...

7) “There has never been a statue erected to honor a critic.”
Probably true. But critical thinking and critique allows one to reside at a 76th floor apartment with steady supply of water and power. Or fly almost anywhere on the globe safely, or talk to anyone on the globe with a cell phone. Engineering is critical thinking and critique of proposed plans and solutions. I guess Zig was no engineer so he’s fully excused.

6) “People don’t buy for logical reasons. They buy for emotional reasons.”
Including men? I never get emotional buying pants. Or yoghurt. I guess he’s talking about luxuries…

5) “Expect the best. Prepare for the worst. Capitalize on what comes.”
Spot on. Cures mild depression on contact.

4) “If you go looking for a friend, you’re going to find they’re scarce. If you go out to be a friend, you’ll find them everywhere.”
Sweet, but becomes increasingly difficult past the third grade...

3) “A goal properly set is halfway reached.”
Sorry, here I much prefer Murphy's more precisely estimated position: The first 90% of reaching a tough goal takes 90% of your time. The last 10% of reaching a tough goal takes another 90% of your time.

2) “Your attitude, not your aptitude, will determine your altitude.”
Yes but this assumes that there is some aptitude to work along with a nice attitude.
All the smiles in the world cannot lift someone with a minimal skillset.
Actually Zig’s three components of success are Will, Skill, Refill. Spot on!

1) “If you can dream it, you can achieve it.”
This is typically quoted only by people who have actually achieved it!
Of course if I dream about BBQ chicken for dinner, chances are that I'll achieve having it.

Honolulu’s Poor Economic Growth and What to Do about It

The Brookings Institution, rated No. 1 think tank in the world, published the Global Metro Monitor update which “provides economic growth data.” Where does Honolulu rank among 300 cities? It ranks 284th for the 1993 to 2007 period, and 217th for the 2007 to 2011 period. Honolulu ranks 54th in terms of population in the U.S.

While Honolulu ranks 284th, for the same period Portland ranks 93rd, Tucson ranks 100th, Tampa ranks 106th, Salt Lake City ranks 130th and depressed Cincinnati ranks 206th. Honolulu is much closer to 297th ranked New Orleans than any of its peer cities.

Why is Honolulu ranking so low? In large part because of the excessive waste of funds on unproductive endeavors. Unfortunately, this is a lesson that has not been learned. Here is a list of 10 large mistakes:

1. We invested in the 2nd city and more housing. As a result we get worse congestion and continuously escalating housing prices because of land controls. Creating a 100,000 population city on prime agricultural land is a mistake that Honolulu county will be paying for, for centuries.

2. We invested in buses: 200 more buses, express buses, and HandiVan in the last 30 years. Yet we got flat ridership. In 1980 Honolulu had 760,000 residents and TheBus carried 71.6 million trips, or 7.5 trips per resident per month. In 2010 Honolulu had 960,000 residents and TheBus carried 73 million trips, or 6.4 trips per resident per month, a 15% drop in per capita productivity. Transit is a declining business.

3. The last thing we need is a multi‐billion dollar investment in transit. But that’s a local priority!

4. We invested in high-occupancy and zipper lanes but we don’t do anything to manage the flow on them.  As a result drive alone and carpool share was 81% in 1990 and 81% in 2012. More people drive alone now than 20 years ago, despite the tripling of fuel prices. Carpooling has lost share because the freeway HOV lanes provide a low travel time benefit.

5. We invest in government. As a result we get over-regulation and slow innovation. Many government operations in Hawaii still use carbon copying and physical walking of papers from place to place, then pay extra workers to enter the information on a computer.

6. A private consortium launched the Superferry. The supermajority of people loved it.  Corporatist politicians and special interests killed it.

7. We invest in junk renewables like concentrated solar. Taxpayers paid millions in tax credits to a company on the Big Island that installed 1,008 panels on four acres of land to produce 0.1 MW which is mostly used internally and no power is sold to HELCO!

8. We do not invest much in tourism, infrastructure upkeep, congestion relief and park cleanliness. Despite the brouhaha about our banner 2012 year for tourism, the fact is that growth in tourism has not kept up with Honolulu’s modest growth in population: In 1990 we had about 8 visitors per local resident. In 2010 we had 7.25 visitors per local resident. Taxes generated from tourists do not keep up with local needs for services on a per capita basis.

9. Now we want to invest in "one iPad for each public school student" as if Apple can stuff knowledge in pupils’ brains.

10. We also want to invest in one super-casino so we can collect voluntary money losses from gamblers. We seem to know how to get from 284th to 300th.

What if we wanted to improve our ranking (and our quality of life)?

First we need to place our trust on data and not on “visionaries.” Given Hawaii’s great loss in Congressional seniority, an economic decline followed by bumpy stability will be the trend as I explained previously. Honolulu’s basic 0.5% annual growth will be flattened by local, national and international pressures.

Then proceed with this sample half dozen of economically productive actions:

1. Plans focused on growth for Oahu must be abandoned.
2. Top Priority: Maintain, Rehabilitate, Replace, Modernize.
3 Scrap rail. Use $3 billion to fix roads and add express lanes and urban underpasses.
4. Scrap wind. Focus on natural gas, waste‐to‐energy and geothermal.
5. Scrap the EPA agreement for secondary sewage treatment. (Many cities are taking EPA to task for its unreasonable consent decrees.) Focus on accelerated replacement of water and sewer lines.
6. Manage current and future budgets to sustain item 2.

[Also published in Hawaii Reporter.]