First was the 2009 Jacob's risk analysis report commissioned by the FTA. It said this:
At the present stage of pre-Preliminary Engineering, one can be 90% confident that the proposed project will cost between 5.2 and 10.2 billion dollars (Figure 1-1, page 1-10 of Jacobs report.) Once PE is done and the project enters Final Design, then its price tag is expected to narrow: The project will have a 90% chance of being built for a budget ranging between 4.8 and 8.1 billion dollars.
Read more here: http://fixoahu.blogspot.com/2009/07/jacobs-report-for-honolulus-proposed.html
In December 2010 Gov. Linda Lingle released state-funded study on the costs of rail. The Star Advertiser summarized it as follows:
The proposed 20-mile rail transit system is likely to cost the city an additional $1.7 billion over the next 20 years, raising the total price tag to at least $7 billion, according to a state review of the project's finances. And there is "substantial risk" that the $1.7 billion additional cost could grow to $4.5 billion.
Read more here: http://www.staradvertiser.com/news/20101203_Cost_will_balloon_rail_report_finds.html
My take quoted in the Star Advertiser is this:
Prevedouros said the analysis was consistent with the 2009 Federal Transit Authority report prepared by the Dallas consulting firm Jacobs Engineering Group, which placed the estimated cost of Oahu's 20-mile system at $5.29 billion but also indicated that there was a chance that the cost could reach or exceed $8.1 billion.
"(Jacobs) did not have a stake in the game. They were just reporting a number," Prevedouros said. "They're experts in getting it right, and they said there was a high chance of overruns. I would trust them more than I would trust advocates of the project."
Prevedouros said the results of the latest analysis should give lawmakers pause as they consider whether and how rail should proceed. "It's a different Congress. This will give them pause. It's a perilous path heading forward."
Read more here: http://www.staradvertiser.com/news/20101203_Train_opponents_cheer_prediction_of_cost_overruns.html
It is important to mention the impeccable reputation and expert subject knowledge of the primary authors of the report prepared by Infrastructure Management Group, Inc. Steve Steckler is Harvard University planner and chairman of IMG with past service in the U.S. DOT. Thomas Rubin is a mass transit consultant who's served as Controller-Treasurer of the Southern California Rapid Transit District, now known as Los Angeles Metropolitan Transit Authority.
Friday, December 3, 2010
Tuesday, November 16, 2010
The Little Traffic Sign That Could ... Cause Three Freeway Accidents per Month!
This innocent looking NO RIGHT TURN ON RED sign installed by the City at the corner of University Avenue with Dole Street is actually the root cause of several rear-end accidents on the Kokohead or East-bound H-1 Freeway. Typically the accident happens between the University Avenue exit the Bingham Street exit.
This prohibitive sign in combination with two freeway off-ramps that carry a high volume of traffic from both sides of the freeway generate dangerous lines of cars on both sides of the freeway.
On the Ewa or West-bound side of the freeway, traffic to town is very slow because this is the peak direction. As such, the backlog of vehicles that go to University and Manoa is not particularly risky.
On the Kokohead or East-bound side, however, the freeway operates under extremely dangerous conditions. Two lanes, middle and left, flow at 50 to 60 miles per hour while the right lane crawls at less than 5 mph.
Here is the evidence of three crashes in less than 20 days!
Oct. 12, 2010 Rear end accident photographed at 8:52 AM
Oct. 20, 2010 Rear end accident photographed at 8:55 AM
Nov.4, 2010 Rear end accident photographed at 9:55 AM
These three accidents caused extensive congestion between the Pali Highway and University Avenue. The photo below shows bumper-to-bumper traffic as seen from the Wilder Avenue pedestrian overpass. The school bus in bottom left is moving over to the middle lane to avoid the blocked right lane and shoulder.
The City should take a lesson from itself from a similar twin right turn with a heavy flow of pedestrians at the corner of Ala Wai Boulevard and McCully Street where the sign reads NO RIGHT TURN ON RED Except from Right Lane After STOP. This more permissive management of traffic flow is required at the University Avenue twin right turn immediately to reduce the frequency of queues spilling onto the freeway and causing rear-end accidents.
This location has a clear and well delineated paths for pedestrians and vehicles and no obstructions. Issues relating to pedestrian safety with a permissive right turn on red are minimal. All other intersection corners around the UH-Manoa allow for right turn on red with no ill-effects to pedestrian safety.
Incidentally as far back as Monday, May 12, 1997 in the Honolulu Advertiser, page A-13, I complained about the city's uncoordinated traffic lights and referred specifically to the University/Dole intersection having substandard signalization.
Overall, the University Avenue freeway interchange needs an overhaul. Some alternatives were proposed in the past (Monday, January 31, 2000 Star Bulletin, “Engineer has ideas for improving H-1 flow”.) A final design and implementation are necessary to reduce the accidents at this high risk location which includes the only two ramps in our entire freeway system that are managed by YIELD signs!
Click for additional coverage of this issue by Hawaii News Now's Tim Sakahara.
This prohibitive sign in combination with two freeway off-ramps that carry a high volume of traffic from both sides of the freeway generate dangerous lines of cars on both sides of the freeway.On the Ewa or West-bound side of the freeway, traffic to town is very slow because this is the peak direction. As such, the backlog of vehicles that go to University and Manoa is not particularly risky.
On the Kokohead or East-bound side, however, the freeway operates under extremely dangerous conditions. Two lanes, middle and left, flow at 50 to 60 miles per hour while the right lane crawls at less than 5 mph.
Here is the evidence of three crashes in less than 20 days!
Oct. 12, 2010 Rear end accident photographed at 8:52 AM
Oct. 20, 2010 Rear end accident photographed at 8:55 AM
Nov.4, 2010 Rear end accident photographed at 9:55 AM
These three accidents caused extensive congestion between the Pali Highway and University Avenue. The photo below shows bumper-to-bumper traffic as seen from the Wilder Avenue pedestrian overpass. The school bus in bottom left is moving over to the middle lane to avoid the blocked right lane and shoulder.
The City should take a lesson from itself from a similar twin right turn with a heavy flow of pedestrians at the corner of Ala Wai Boulevard and McCully Street where the sign reads NO RIGHT TURN ON RED Except from Right Lane After STOP. This more permissive management of traffic flow is required at the University Avenue twin right turn immediately to reduce the frequency of queues spilling onto the freeway and causing rear-end accidents.
This location has a clear and well delineated paths for pedestrians and vehicles and no obstructions. Issues relating to pedestrian safety with a permissive right turn on red are minimal. All other intersection corners around the UH-Manoa allow for right turn on red with no ill-effects to pedestrian safety.
Incidentally as far back as Monday, May 12, 1997 in the Honolulu Advertiser, page A-13, I complained about the city's uncoordinated traffic lights and referred specifically to the University/Dole intersection having substandard signalization.
Overall, the University Avenue freeway interchange needs an overhaul. Some alternatives were proposed in the past (Monday, January 31, 2000 Star Bulletin, “Engineer has ideas for improving H-1 flow”.) A final design and implementation are necessary to reduce the accidents at this high risk location which includes the only two ramps in our entire freeway system that are managed by YIELD signs!
Click for additional coverage of this issue by Hawaii News Now's Tim Sakahara.
Saturday, November 13, 2010
Update on Honolulu Rail Programmatic Agreement
Courtesy of KHON's Andrew Pereira who reveals that five (5) agencies need to approve the PA in addition to the Governor's signature before the FTA can issue the Record on Decision.
The signatories to the programmatic agreement include the U.S. Navy, the Federal Transit Administration, the State Historic Preservation Officer and the Advisory Council on Historic Preservation.
David Kimo Frankel of the Native Hawaiian Legal Corporation insists the city is putting the cart before the horse. He says under state law an archaeological inventory survey, which maps out where native Hawaii burial sites are likely to be encountered along the rail line from East Kapolei to Ala Moana, must be conducted before the programmatic agreement can be signed by the required parties.
Link to the full article RAIL FACES TALL HURDLE
The signatories to the programmatic agreement include the U.S. Navy, the Federal Transit Administration, the State Historic Preservation Officer and the Advisory Council on Historic Preservation.
David Kimo Frankel of the Native Hawaiian Legal Corporation insists the city is putting the cart before the horse. He says under state law an archaeological inventory survey, which maps out where native Hawaii burial sites are likely to be encountered along the rail line from East Kapolei to Ala Moana, must be conducted before the programmatic agreement can be signed by the required parties.
Link to the full article RAIL FACES TALL HURDLE
Thursday, October 28, 2010
Christie Gets Off the Train -- Carlisle Gets In the Train
The letter below was printed in The Wall Street Journal, page A16 on October 28, 2010.
"I cannot place upon the citizens of the State of New Jersey an open-ended letter of credit," said Garden State Governor Chris Christie yesterday.Mr. Christie was affirming his decision to cancel a bloated project to build a new railroad tunnel under the Hudson River to New York City. He also affirmed that a government that already taxes its citizens more heavily than any other state in the country and has still racked up more than $100 billion in unfunded liabilities must finally recognize its limits.
The proposed tunnel was a joint project of the state of New Jersey, the Federal Transit Administration, and the Port Authority of New York and New Jersey, with each contributing roughly equal amounts. The catch was that Jersey would pay for any cost overruns.
What are the chances that this project would have been completed on budget? Consider the history. Expected to cost less than $5 billion during initial planning, the price tag jumped to $7.6 billion amid environmental impact studies in 2005. By the fall of 2008, $8.7 billion was the working assumption—until last summer when the feds forecast at least $10.9 billion, and possibly as much as $13.7 billion. After Mr. Christie made it clear last month that he wanted to avoid the fiscal train wreck looming under the Hudson, the feds reduced their estimated costs to a range of $9.8 billion to $12.7 billion.
In any case, Garden State taxpayers would still have been on the hook as soon as the meter ran above $9.8 billion, which even the feds acknowledge was a 90% certainty. It's hard to blame Mr. Christie for sparing taxpayers from such a fate.
What does the state of New Jersey finances and Gov. Christie's action mean for us on Oahu?
If taxes are thoroughly accounted for, then Hawaii is comparable in taxing its citizens with New Jersey.
The rail tunnel was planned to cost under $5 Billion and right before going into construction it would likely cost $9 Billion to $12 Billion.
On Oahu's banana republic the rail is planned to cost close to $6 Billion and Carlisle is going for it. Previous mayors argued that it will cost less that $5 Billion when FTA Jacob's report said that there is a 5% probability that Honolulu rail will cost over $8 Billion.
A Star Advertiser analysis by Sean Hao showed that infrastructure repairs alone in Hawaii top $32 Billion and the whole in the state's employee retirement system that we must fill locally is over $8 Billion for a rough total in liabilities of $40 Billion.
Note that the letter above says that Governor Christie canceled the rail project because of New Jersey's $100 Billion in other liabilities. New Jersey is 8.5 million people. So our $40 Billion liability in Hawaii compared to New Jersey is proportionally 2.8 times larger!
Carlisle is oblivious of the fiscal hole we are in. Carlisle also has not realized that the politics and costs of rail have retired its proponents. One thing Carlisle has going for him is 6 to 12 months of opportunity to get off the train.
==============
Monday, October 25, 2010
National Performance Metrics Comparison of Honolulu’s Elevated Rail and HOT Lane Proposals. Final Score!
Time to add up the scores for Rail and HOT Lanes based on the three NTPP goals and their six metrics that were detailed in the three blog posts below.
While this may sound like a straight forward addition, it is not. The NTPP report does not say that the three goals are equal.
For simplicity, one may assume that the goals of (1) Economic Growth, (2) Energy and Environment, and (3) Safety are equal, so each one has a weight of 33.3%.
Another person may argue that safety is paramount and the other two goals are lesser in importance, so for example Safety has a weight of 50% and the other two have a weight of 25% each.
We can come up with a variety of weighted importance percentages, but to conclude this exercise of transportation alternatives pre-planning let’s summarize the scores using these two summation schemes mentioned above.
The table above clearly shows that based on the 2009 National Transportation Performance Criteria for economic growth, energy, environment and safety, HOT Lanes is a far superior alternative to Elevated Rail.
If we use equal weights of 33.3% for each goal, then HOT Lanes scores 60 points and Elevated Rail scores 27 points. If Safety is worth 50% and the other two goals are worth 25% each, then in total HOT Lanes scores 60 points and Elevated Rail scores 32 points.
Honolulu made the wrong choice in the 2006 Alternatives Analysis when Elevated Rail was chosen as the Locally Preferred Alternative. This evaluation using 2009 NTPP goals shows how big a mistake was made: 20 miles of Elevated Rail will barely be half as good as 10 miles of HOT Lanes.
While this may sound like a straight forward addition, it is not. The NTPP report does not say that the three goals are equal.
For simplicity, one may assume that the goals of (1) Economic Growth, (2) Energy and Environment, and (3) Safety are equal, so each one has a weight of 33.3%.
Another person may argue that safety is paramount and the other two goals are lesser in importance, so for example Safety has a weight of 50% and the other two have a weight of 25% each.
We can come up with a variety of weighted importance percentages, but to conclude this exercise of transportation alternatives pre-planning let’s summarize the scores using these two summation schemes mentioned above.
The table above clearly shows that based on the 2009 National Transportation Performance Criteria for economic growth, energy, environment and safety, HOT Lanes is a far superior alternative to Elevated Rail.
If we use equal weights of 33.3% for each goal, then HOT Lanes scores 60 points and Elevated Rail scores 27 points. If Safety is worth 50% and the other two goals are worth 25% each, then in total HOT Lanes scores 60 points and Elevated Rail scores 32 points.
Honolulu made the wrong choice in the 2006 Alternatives Analysis when Elevated Rail was chosen as the Locally Preferred Alternative. This evaluation using 2009 NTPP goals shows how big a mistake was made: 20 miles of Elevated Rail will barely be half as good as 10 miles of HOT Lanes.
Thursday, October 21, 2010
National Performance Metrics Comparison of Honolulu’s Elevated Rail and HOT Lane Proposals. Goal 3 of 3: Safety
Let’s briefly analyze how 20 miles of rail with 21 stations and 10 miles of HOT lanes would score in an application in Honolulu based on three goals and six NTPP metrics that were presented in a previous blog.
In order to reach a bottom line, the best alternative for each goal will receive a score of 10 and the second best will receive a relative score between 0 and 10.
Note that these metrics address deeper goals and treat congestion as an outcome. For congestion relief alone HOT lanes would score a 10 and rail a 1.
In this last part we focus on NTPP goal 3 which is Safety. This goal has two metrics, fatalities and injuries per capita and per vehicle miles traveled or VMT. Brief descriptions of the compared RAIL and HOT Lanes alternatives are provided here.
Fatalities and Injuries per Capita
RAIL: Rail systems are commonly assumed to be very safe compared to “dangerous roads.” Far from it. When suicides, rapes, drugs, pick-pocketing and other crime in stations and elevator, escalator, walking, falls inside a moving train and other accidents are comprehensively accounted for, and weighted by the relatively small numbers of people rail serves compared to roads, then urban rail systems are less safe than managed roads. Note that high voltage third rail systems like the one planned for Honolulu are notorious for suicides, the statistics of which are always kept secret to discourage these events. (Score = 7)
HOT Lanes: The Attica Tollway in Athens received the International Road Federal award for safety in 2009 and the 10 miles of reversible elevated lanes (REL) of Tampa are practically accident free. In addition, automated lane keeping, intelligent cruise control and other safety technologies already built-into the luxury car market are increasingly being offered in mid-priced cars. Again, managed HOT lanes are perfect for taking advantage of advanced safety systems and future improvements. Unlike trains that are always in close contact with people, HOT lane traffic is never in close contact with pedestrians. (Score = 10)
Fatalities and Injuries per Vehicle Miles Traveled
RAIL: Honolulu rail is projected to move such a tiny proportion of Oahu’s trips (less than 3% of the daily trips) so its effect on improving safety will be tiny. (Score = 8)
HOT Lanes: While the lanes themselves will not carry more than 5% of Oahu’s daily trips, they will provide a substantial congestion relief to parallel roads including the H-1 Freeway thereby reducing rear-end accidents which are typical in congested conditions. A portion of motorists and bus and vanpool passengers will be able to travel on a perfectly safe 10 mile segment of roadway. (Score = 10)
Summary
Based on the Safety goal and its two metrics, HOT Lanes score 20 points and Elevated Rail scores 15 points.
In order to reach a bottom line, the best alternative for each goal will receive a score of 10 and the second best will receive a relative score between 0 and 10.
Note that these metrics address deeper goals and treat congestion as an outcome. For congestion relief alone HOT lanes would score a 10 and rail a 1.
In this last part we focus on NTPP goal 3 which is Safety. This goal has two metrics, fatalities and injuries per capita and per vehicle miles traveled or VMT. Brief descriptions of the compared RAIL and HOT Lanes alternatives are provided here.
Fatalities and Injuries per Capita
RAIL: Rail systems are commonly assumed to be very safe compared to “dangerous roads.” Far from it. When suicides, rapes, drugs, pick-pocketing and other crime in stations and elevator, escalator, walking, falls inside a moving train and other accidents are comprehensively accounted for, and weighted by the relatively small numbers of people rail serves compared to roads, then urban rail systems are less safe than managed roads. Note that high voltage third rail systems like the one planned for Honolulu are notorious for suicides, the statistics of which are always kept secret to discourage these events. (Score = 7)
HOT Lanes: The Attica Tollway in Athens received the International Road Federal award for safety in 2009 and the 10 miles of reversible elevated lanes (REL) of Tampa are practically accident free. In addition, automated lane keeping, intelligent cruise control and other safety technologies already built-into the luxury car market are increasingly being offered in mid-priced cars. Again, managed HOT lanes are perfect for taking advantage of advanced safety systems and future improvements. Unlike trains that are always in close contact with people, HOT lane traffic is never in close contact with pedestrians. (Score = 10)
Fatalities and Injuries per Vehicle Miles Traveled
RAIL: Honolulu rail is projected to move such a tiny proportion of Oahu’s trips (less than 3% of the daily trips) so its effect on improving safety will be tiny. (Score = 8)
HOT Lanes: While the lanes themselves will not carry more than 5% of Oahu’s daily trips, they will provide a substantial congestion relief to parallel roads including the H-1 Freeway thereby reducing rear-end accidents which are typical in congested conditions. A portion of motorists and bus and vanpool passengers will be able to travel on a perfectly safe 10 mile segment of roadway. (Score = 10)
Summary
Based on the Safety goal and its two metrics, HOT Lanes score 20 points and Elevated Rail scores 15 points.
Saturday, October 16, 2010
National Performance Metrics Comparison of Honolulu’s Elevated Rail and HOT Lane Proposals. Goal 2 of 3: Energy and Environment
Let’s briefly analyze how 20 miles of rail with 21 stations and 10 miles of HOT lanes would score in an application in Honolulu based on three goals and six NTPP metrics that were presented in a previous blog.
In order to reach a bottom line, the best alternative for each goal will receive a score of 10 and the second best will receive a relative score between 0 and 10. Note that these metrics address deeper goals and treat congestion as an outcome. For congestion relief alone HOT lanes would score a 10 and rail a 1.
In this part we focus on NTPP goal 2 which is Energy and Environment. This goal has two metrics, petroleum consumption and CO2 emissions. Brief descriptions of the compared RAIL and HOT Lanes alternatives are provided here.
Petroleum Consumption
RAIL: While nationally rail may be powered by a mix of coal, hydroelectric and nuclear power, on Oahu over 95% of electric power is generated by burning oil and coal. Unfortunately during off-peak hours trains tend to run nearly empty. They draw a lot of oil-based electricity power for very little transportation work. Also the rail will only reduce car trips by 1.1%, so oil dependence for cars will not be diminished. Worse yet, congestion with rail will be terrible during construction and after it opens. Overall petroleum consumption and dependence will be high with rail. Score = 3.
HOT Lanes: Have the advantage that from day 1 they can serve hybrid buses, hybrid cars and electric cars. Lanes on the HOT lanes can also provide under-the-roadway induction conduits so electric buses can run on them. Electric buses will draw oil and coal based electricity. However, electric cars and plug-in hybrids can easily be charged at home or work by solar panels and mini-wind mills as shown in this couple of installations near the UH-Manoa.
These devices provide an opportunity for distributed renewable energy which is heavily incentivized today: $7,500 federal tax credit and $4,500 Hawaii tax credit for an electric car; 30% federal tax credit and 35% Hawaii tax credit for solar panels; $2,000 federal and state credit for a car charger at home (actual cost to user ~$200.) The U.S. and Hawaii energy policy favors electric car purchases not usage of fixed rail. Construction of 10 miles of HOT lanes is only one third as disruptive as rail and after they open congestion will improve by over 25%. Score = 10.
CO2 Emissions
RAIL: Unlike the mainland where hydro and nuclear power accounts for almost 30% of electricity generation (and oil accounts for barely over 1.1%), Oahu’s electricity is almost entirely based on oil and coal so the CO2 emissions of rail on Oahu will be terrible because they are proportional to oil dependence. Severe congestion during rail’s construction and its minimal benefit afterward result in a highly polluting final outcome. Oil and coal account for over 95% of electric power generation on Oahu. Strong incentives for solar power roof-top deployments affect individual users and do not lessen the rail’s dependence on oil-based electricity. Score = 2.
HOT Lanes: The future lies in electric automobility as the incentives above clearly demonstrate. The Oak Ridge National Laboratory (ORNL) demonstrated that wind turbine energy is best at night, but that is a time that society needs electricity the least… except for thousands of electric cars charging from the grid with wind energy. ORNL has identified this as a perfect synergy. HOT Lanes are perfectly positioned to serve electric cars, vans and buses and dramatically reduce CO2 emissions. HOT lanes dramatically reduce CO2 pollution from day 1 by reducing corridor congestion by 25% or more. Score = 10.
Summary
Based on the Energy and Environment goal and its two metrics, HOT Lanes score 20 points and Elevated Rail scores 5 points.
In order to reach a bottom line, the best alternative for each goal will receive a score of 10 and the second best will receive a relative score between 0 and 10. Note that these metrics address deeper goals and treat congestion as an outcome. For congestion relief alone HOT lanes would score a 10 and rail a 1.
In this part we focus on NTPP goal 2 which is Energy and Environment. This goal has two metrics, petroleum consumption and CO2 emissions. Brief descriptions of the compared RAIL and HOT Lanes alternatives are provided here.
Petroleum Consumption
RAIL: While nationally rail may be powered by a mix of coal, hydroelectric and nuclear power, on Oahu over 95% of electric power is generated by burning oil and coal. Unfortunately during off-peak hours trains tend to run nearly empty. They draw a lot of oil-based electricity power for very little transportation work. Also the rail will only reduce car trips by 1.1%, so oil dependence for cars will not be diminished. Worse yet, congestion with rail will be terrible during construction and after it opens. Overall petroleum consumption and dependence will be high with rail. Score = 3.
HOT Lanes: Have the advantage that from day 1 they can serve hybrid buses, hybrid cars and electric cars. Lanes on the HOT lanes can also provide under-the-roadway induction conduits so electric buses can run on them. Electric buses will draw oil and coal based electricity. However, electric cars and plug-in hybrids can easily be charged at home or work by solar panels and mini-wind mills as shown in this couple of installations near the UH-Manoa.
These devices provide an opportunity for distributed renewable energy which is heavily incentivized today: $7,500 federal tax credit and $4,500 Hawaii tax credit for an electric car; 30% federal tax credit and 35% Hawaii tax credit for solar panels; $2,000 federal and state credit for a car charger at home (actual cost to user ~$200.) The U.S. and Hawaii energy policy favors electric car purchases not usage of fixed rail. Construction of 10 miles of HOT lanes is only one third as disruptive as rail and after they open congestion will improve by over 25%. Score = 10.
CO2 Emissions
RAIL: Unlike the mainland where hydro and nuclear power accounts for almost 30% of electricity generation (and oil accounts for barely over 1.1%), Oahu’s electricity is almost entirely based on oil and coal so the CO2 emissions of rail on Oahu will be terrible because they are proportional to oil dependence. Severe congestion during rail’s construction and its minimal benefit afterward result in a highly polluting final outcome. Oil and coal account for over 95% of electric power generation on Oahu. Strong incentives for solar power roof-top deployments affect individual users and do not lessen the rail’s dependence on oil-based electricity. Score = 2.
HOT Lanes: The future lies in electric automobility as the incentives above clearly demonstrate. The Oak Ridge National Laboratory (ORNL) demonstrated that wind turbine energy is best at night, but that is a time that society needs electricity the least… except for thousands of electric cars charging from the grid with wind energy. ORNL has identified this as a perfect synergy. HOT Lanes are perfectly positioned to serve electric cars, vans and buses and dramatically reduce CO2 emissions. HOT lanes dramatically reduce CO2 pollution from day 1 by reducing corridor congestion by 25% or more. Score = 10.
Summary
Based on the Energy and Environment goal and its two metrics, HOT Lanes score 20 points and Elevated Rail scores 5 points.
Wednesday, October 13, 2010
National Performance Metrics Comparison of Honolulu’s Elevated Rail and HOT Lane Proposals. Goal 1 of 3: Economic Growth
Let’s briefly analyze how 20 miles of rail with 21 stations and 10 miles of HOT lanes would score in an application in Honolulu based on three goals and six NTPP metrics that were presented in a previous blog.
In order to reach a bottom line, the best alternative for each goal will receive a score of 10 and the second best will receive a relative score between 0 and 10.
Note that these metrics address deeper goals and treat congestion as an outcome. For congestion relief alone HOT lanes would score a 10 and rail a 1.
In this part we focus on NTPP goal 1 which is Economic Growth. This goal has four metrics but two of them relate to long-distance commerce and travel; they apply to Hawaii when maritime or air transportation is considered.
Brief System Descriptions
RAIL: Fully elevated heavy rail starting about a mile east of Kapolei in the middle of prime agricultural land (presently Aloun and other farms) and ending inside Ala Moana Center with 21 stations and three or four park and ride facilities accommodating fewer than 5,000 cars. Headways are 3 minutes in peak periods, 6 minutes off peak. Trains have a capacity of 300 people of which two thirds are standees. Double track design with no express trains. The system will recover 0% of the capital costs and only 10%-20% of its O&M costs from fares. Capital cost estimated at $5.4 Billion and annual O&M cost at $70 Million/year.
HOT Lanes: 10 miles of elevated 3-lane reversible expressway designed for High Occupancy and Toll operation where buses and large carpools enter free. Low and solo occupancy vehicles pay a graduated toll (e.g., from $0.50 to $5.00). The toll is “congestion insurance.” Paying the toll guarantees 50 mph travel at all times. Higher tolls are necessary to discourage overloading. The facility has Aloha Stadium as its anchor (mid-point) and has exits at Pearl Harbor, Lagoon Drive and Waiakamilo. It starts at the H-1/H-2 merge and ends in Iwilei. The 2.2 miles from Keehi Interchange to Iwilei is a shovel ready project (signed EIS) as “The Nimitz Viaduct.) The system will recover at least one third of its capital costs and 100% of its O&M costs from tolls. Capital cost estimated at $1.7 Billion and annual O&M cost at $20 Million/year.
Access to Jobs and Labor (metropolitan accessibility)
RAIL: National research has shown that rail’s limited reach does not help the jobless to find jobs and is not helpful for those with multiple jobs; and we have many of the latter on Oahu. Rail is a mode for white collar commuters; this is a relatively small market in Hawaii’s service oriented and dispersed industry. Many workers drop off or pick up children from school before work; rail is no good for them. Combinations of rail and bus and walk for door-to-door travel result in uncompetitive travel times compared to direct bus, carpool or car modes. Rail’s original score of 4 is further reduced by 2 points because rail is incapable of providing transportations for goods and services which are vital for the economy and part of this criterion. Score = 4-2 = 2.
HOT Lanes: Nationally HOT lanes is the solution for rapid transportation and the best way to make express buses competitive with the auto and succeed in getting people “out of their cars.” An express bus from Waikele or Waipio on the HOT lanes would reach downtown in under 20 minutes in the middle of rush hour. These express buses can continue to major destinations in Kalihi, Kakaako, Waikiki, and UH. Also Oahu has among the nation’s highest carpool and vanpool rates. HOT lanes are designed to serve these high occupancy modes. HOT lanes provide fast travel for the provision of services (e.g., an electrician can get from Kapolei to Kalihi in under 30 minutes at 7 AM) and offer congestion relief to parallel routes (e.g., H-1 Freeway) which is used heavily for transporting goods. Score = 10.
Access to Non-work Activities (metropolitan accessibility)
RAIL: A very small portion of the population should be expected to use rail for non-work activities such as groceries, shopping, social visits, school events, soccer practice, night clubbing, out on a date, etc. Rail loses 1 point for being unable to be of any use during an emergency such as freeway closure, flooding, hurricane and tsunami. Score = 6-1 = 5.
HOT Lanes: The Honolulu design is for a reversible configuration which is tailored to serve commuting flows so it only partially improves access to the variety of non-work activities that people engage in. It is tailored however to work well for large events at Aloha Stadium by working in-bound to the stadium before the event starts and out-bound at event’s end for quick evacuation. The HOT lanes can also serve as a reliable emergency-only backbone during an emergency. Score = 10.
Summary
Based on the Economic Growth goal and its two metrics, HOT Lanes score 20 points and Elevated Rail scores 7 points.
In order to reach a bottom line, the best alternative for each goal will receive a score of 10 and the second best will receive a relative score between 0 and 10.
Note that these metrics address deeper goals and treat congestion as an outcome. For congestion relief alone HOT lanes would score a 10 and rail a 1.
In this part we focus on NTPP goal 1 which is Economic Growth. This goal has four metrics but two of them relate to long-distance commerce and travel; they apply to Hawaii when maritime or air transportation is considered.
Brief System Descriptions
RAIL: Fully elevated heavy rail starting about a mile east of Kapolei in the middle of prime agricultural land (presently Aloun and other farms) and ending inside Ala Moana Center with 21 stations and three or four park and ride facilities accommodating fewer than 5,000 cars. Headways are 3 minutes in peak periods, 6 minutes off peak. Trains have a capacity of 300 people of which two thirds are standees. Double track design with no express trains. The system will recover 0% of the capital costs and only 10%-20% of its O&M costs from fares. Capital cost estimated at $5.4 Billion and annual O&M cost at $70 Million/year.
HOT Lanes: 10 miles of elevated 3-lane reversible expressway designed for High Occupancy and Toll operation where buses and large carpools enter free. Low and solo occupancy vehicles pay a graduated toll (e.g., from $0.50 to $5.00). The toll is “congestion insurance.” Paying the toll guarantees 50 mph travel at all times. Higher tolls are necessary to discourage overloading. The facility has Aloha Stadium as its anchor (mid-point) and has exits at Pearl Harbor, Lagoon Drive and Waiakamilo. It starts at the H-1/H-2 merge and ends in Iwilei. The 2.2 miles from Keehi Interchange to Iwilei is a shovel ready project (signed EIS) as “The Nimitz Viaduct.) The system will recover at least one third of its capital costs and 100% of its O&M costs from tolls. Capital cost estimated at $1.7 Billion and annual O&M cost at $20 Million/year.
Access to Jobs and Labor (metropolitan accessibility)
RAIL: National research has shown that rail’s limited reach does not help the jobless to find jobs and is not helpful for those with multiple jobs; and we have many of the latter on Oahu. Rail is a mode for white collar commuters; this is a relatively small market in Hawaii’s service oriented and dispersed industry. Many workers drop off or pick up children from school before work; rail is no good for them. Combinations of rail and bus and walk for door-to-door travel result in uncompetitive travel times compared to direct bus, carpool or car modes. Rail’s original score of 4 is further reduced by 2 points because rail is incapable of providing transportations for goods and services which are vital for the economy and part of this criterion. Score = 4-2 = 2.
HOT Lanes: Nationally HOT lanes is the solution for rapid transportation and the best way to make express buses competitive with the auto and succeed in getting people “out of their cars.” An express bus from Waikele or Waipio on the HOT lanes would reach downtown in under 20 minutes in the middle of rush hour. These express buses can continue to major destinations in Kalihi, Kakaako, Waikiki, and UH. Also Oahu has among the nation’s highest carpool and vanpool rates. HOT lanes are designed to serve these high occupancy modes. HOT lanes provide fast travel for the provision of services (e.g., an electrician can get from Kapolei to Kalihi in under 30 minutes at 7 AM) and offer congestion relief to parallel routes (e.g., H-1 Freeway) which is used heavily for transporting goods. Score = 10.
Access to Non-work Activities (metropolitan accessibility)
RAIL: A very small portion of the population should be expected to use rail for non-work activities such as groceries, shopping, social visits, school events, soccer practice, night clubbing, out on a date, etc. Rail loses 1 point for being unable to be of any use during an emergency such as freeway closure, flooding, hurricane and tsunami. Score = 6-1 = 5.
HOT Lanes: The Honolulu design is for a reversible configuration which is tailored to serve commuting flows so it only partially improves access to the variety of non-work activities that people engage in. It is tailored however to work well for large events at Aloha Stadium by working in-bound to the stadium before the event starts and out-bound at event’s end for quick evacuation. The HOT lanes can also serve as a reliable emergency-only backbone during an emergency. Score = 10.
Summary
Based on the Economic Growth goal and its two metrics, HOT Lanes score 20 points and Elevated Rail scores 7 points.
Tuesday, October 12, 2010
NTPP Transportation Performance Metrics
The National Transportation Policy Project sponsored by the Bipartisan Policy Center produced Performance Driven: New Vision for U.S. Transportation Policy
“This report presents the findings of an intensive, two year effort to develop multi-stakeholder consensus recommendations for a forward-looking American transportation policy. This report is the product of a bipartisan group of 26 members of diverse expertise and affiliations, addressing many complex and contentious topics.”
The report states that “Without clearly articulated goals, it is not surprising that there has been little accountability for the performance of most federal transportation programs and projects to date. The result has been an emphasis on revenue sharing and process, rather than on results. There is no federal requirement to optimize “returns” on public investments, and current programs are not structured to reward positive outcomes, or even to document them.”
As an actionable item the Project developed specific performance metrics. “The performance metrics, must be fair, transparent, and free of bias toward particular transportation modes or geographic regions. The list below summarizes the performance metrics NTPP recommends for measuring performance.”
Economic Growth
(1) Access to jobs and labor (metropolitan accessibility)
(2) Access to non-work activities (metropolitan accessibility)
Energy and Environment
(1) Petroleum consumption
(2) CO2 emissions
Safety
(1) Fatalities and injuries per capita
(2) Fatalities and injuries per Vehicle Miles Traveled (VMT)
The report provides a lot of details and concludes that “Fundamental reform is needed. The alternative is to allow America’s transportation systems to continue to fall short of meeting the multi-faceted demands increasingly being placed on them—with collective costs to the economy, our quality of life, and the environment that can only grow over time.”
NEXT BLOG: Performance Metrics Comparison of Honolulu’s Heavy Rail and HOT Lane Proposals.
“This report presents the findings of an intensive, two year effort to develop multi-stakeholder consensus recommendations for a forward-looking American transportation policy. This report is the product of a bipartisan group of 26 members of diverse expertise and affiliations, addressing many complex and contentious topics.”
The report states that “Without clearly articulated goals, it is not surprising that there has been little accountability for the performance of most federal transportation programs and projects to date. The result has been an emphasis on revenue sharing and process, rather than on results. There is no federal requirement to optimize “returns” on public investments, and current programs are not structured to reward positive outcomes, or even to document them.”
As an actionable item the Project developed specific performance metrics. “The performance metrics, must be fair, transparent, and free of bias toward particular transportation modes or geographic regions. The list below summarizes the performance metrics NTPP recommends for measuring performance.”
Economic Growth
(1) Access to jobs and labor (metropolitan accessibility)
(2) Access to non-work activities (metropolitan accessibility)
Energy and Environment
(1) Petroleum consumption
(2) CO2 emissions
Safety
(1) Fatalities and injuries per capita
(2) Fatalities and injuries per Vehicle Miles Traveled (VMT)
The report provides a lot of details and concludes that “Fundamental reform is needed. The alternative is to allow America’s transportation systems to continue to fall short of meeting the multi-faceted demands increasingly being placed on them—with collective costs to the economy, our quality of life, and the environment that can only grow over time.”
NEXT BLOG: Performance Metrics Comparison of Honolulu’s Heavy Rail and HOT Lane Proposals.
Monday, October 4, 2010
The Triumph of Pork over Purpose [Needs to Be Reversed]
The article with the "spot on" title Pork over Purpose was published on a most unfortunate date (the day before 9/11/2001) in a most unlikely publication, The Blueprint of the Democratic Leadership Council. The DLC provides perspective and advice to elected Democrats.
The Triumph of Pork over Purpose was written by David Luberoff of Harvard University's Kennedy School of Government.
Notable highlights of the article include the following.
There is no national purpose driving federal highway and transit funding programs. Instead, a variety of special interests -- from contractors and unions to environmentalists and urbanists -- have come to view the national highway and transit program as an opportunity. [Interestingly most environmentalists and urbanists are strongly against the proposed elevated rail for Honolulu, so the project is politician and union driven.]
Earmarked funding for an increasing number of projects: There were only a handful of earmarks in the 1982 act reauthorizing highway and transit laws, but the 1987 measure contained funding for about 150 specific projects --one of the rationales President Reagan cited in his unsuccessful veto of that law. In contrast, no one blinked an eye when ISTEA earmarked money for more than 500 highway and transit projects or when TEA-21 included more than 1,800 earmarks. [Earmarks is one manifestation of pork over purpose. But there are several other ways to promote pork. For example one can declare carbon emissions an enemy and start throwing money at anything that promises carbon emissions reductions. Then "green" causes a lot of real red. The huge deficits of Spain and California prove this.]
The prospect of significant federal funding drives states and localities to build projects that they never would undertake if they had to fund even a significant portion of the costs themselves. For example, the funding strategy for virtually every major rail transit project built in the last three decades -- from Los Angeles' Red Line to Seattle's current troubled project -- has been predicated on securing significant federal funding for those projects because local officials knew that local voters would never have approved local taxes needed to fully fund those projects. [It's worth repeating that 80% to 90% of the funding for H-1, H-2 and H-3 freeways came from FHWA, but only about 25% of the funding for rail may come from the FTA.]
The pressure for special projects and programs creates a process that is politically compelling but one that also is far from economically efficient. And that means that we're not spending the money we have in ways likely to produce significant positive payoffs by either making the economy more efficient or improving the quality of many people's lives. [This is another spot on statement: Infrastructure is paid by taxes. If the wrong infrastructure is built, then taxes are simply wasted.]
The four highlights above --that are worth about 30 Billion Dollars in Hawaii and over One Trillion Dollars in the U.S. as a whole-- explain why I am motivated to seek high elected office with power over infrastructure decisions.
The Triumph of Pork over Purpose was written by David Luberoff of Harvard University's Kennedy School of Government.
Notable highlights of the article include the following.
There is no national purpose driving federal highway and transit funding programs. Instead, a variety of special interests -- from contractors and unions to environmentalists and urbanists -- have come to view the national highway and transit program as an opportunity. [Interestingly most environmentalists and urbanists are strongly against the proposed elevated rail for Honolulu, so the project is politician and union driven.]
Earmarked funding for an increasing number of projects: There were only a handful of earmarks in the 1982 act reauthorizing highway and transit laws, but the 1987 measure contained funding for about 150 specific projects --one of the rationales President Reagan cited in his unsuccessful veto of that law. In contrast, no one blinked an eye when ISTEA earmarked money for more than 500 highway and transit projects or when TEA-21 included more than 1,800 earmarks. [Earmarks is one manifestation of pork over purpose. But there are several other ways to promote pork. For example one can declare carbon emissions an enemy and start throwing money at anything that promises carbon emissions reductions. Then "green" causes a lot of real red. The huge deficits of Spain and California prove this.]
The prospect of significant federal funding drives states and localities to build projects that they never would undertake if they had to fund even a significant portion of the costs themselves. For example, the funding strategy for virtually every major rail transit project built in the last three decades -- from Los Angeles' Red Line to Seattle's current troubled project -- has been predicated on securing significant federal funding for those projects because local officials knew that local voters would never have approved local taxes needed to fully fund those projects. [It's worth repeating that 80% to 90% of the funding for H-1, H-2 and H-3 freeways came from FHWA, but only about 25% of the funding for rail may come from the FTA.]
The pressure for special projects and programs creates a process that is politically compelling but one that also is far from economically efficient. And that means that we're not spending the money we have in ways likely to produce significant positive payoffs by either making the economy more efficient or improving the quality of many people's lives. [This is another spot on statement: Infrastructure is paid by taxes. If the wrong infrastructure is built, then taxes are simply wasted.]
The four highlights above --that are worth about 30 Billion Dollars in Hawaii and over One Trillion Dollars in the U.S. as a whole-- explain why I am motivated to seek high elected office with power over infrastructure decisions.
Tuesday, September 28, 2010
Congestion, Rail, APEC and Hurricane Preparedness: Problems and Solutions
Severe Traffic Congestion Wastes Time and Fuel; Cripples Economy and Tourism
Fix traffic lights, install six underpasses, PPP reversible expressway and express buses, Ewa Beach ferry; intelligent traffic management systems. Read the summary of University of Hawaii Congestion Study for details.
Elevated Heavy Rail Costs Too Much, Does Too Little and Will Be a 20 Year Construction, Eminent Domain and Lawsuit Nightmare for Iwi, Environmental Law Abuses, Agriculture Extinction and Hawaiian Lands Invasion
There is no construction for rail. It is not a legal system to build now; maybe in 2012. Stop the paperwork and the money bleeding now, and move on to real solutions with far smaller cultural, environmental and economic impacts. Assess light transit options such as the Oahu Rail Line that has an over 90% preserved right of way between Waianae and airport.
The 2011 meeting of the Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation (APEC) will be held in Honolulu -- heads of state, Cabinet ministers, business leaders and other officials will attend summit, Nov. 12-20, 2011, at the Hawaii Convention Center. As many as 10,000 people may attend. Event management is critical.
Management by experts with past experience with large special events is necessary. For example I organized two conferences and helped with the 2004 Olympics, as follows:
Emergency Resiliency is Non Existent
It is clear that there is no action plan for clearing roads, restoring electricity and providing medical and other vital services to Oahu neighborhoods after a hurricane hits. There is no preparation for it. For starters:
Fix traffic lights, install six underpasses, PPP reversible expressway and express buses, Ewa Beach ferry; intelligent traffic management systems. Read the summary of University of Hawaii Congestion Study for details.
Elevated Heavy Rail Costs Too Much, Does Too Little and Will Be a 20 Year Construction, Eminent Domain and Lawsuit Nightmare for Iwi, Environmental Law Abuses, Agriculture Extinction and Hawaiian Lands Invasion
There is no construction for rail. It is not a legal system to build now; maybe in 2012. Stop the paperwork and the money bleeding now, and move on to real solutions with far smaller cultural, environmental and economic impacts. Assess light transit options such as the Oahu Rail Line that has an over 90% preserved right of way between Waianae and airport.
The 2011 meeting of the Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation (APEC) will be held in Honolulu -- heads of state, Cabinet ministers, business leaders and other officials will attend summit, Nov. 12-20, 2011, at the Hawaii Convention Center. As many as 10,000 people may attend. Event management is critical.
Management by experts with past experience with large special events is necessary. For example I organized two conferences and helped with the 2004 Olympics, as follows:
- 1st ISFO, Athens, Greece, June 4-7, 2006
- 2nd ISFO, Honolulu, Hawaii, June 21-24, 2009
- Halkias, B., Prevedouros, P., et al. Attica Tollway Management in the Athens 2004 Olympic Games. 12th World Congress on Intelligent Transportation Systems, San Francisco, CA, November 2005.
Emergency Resiliency is Non Existent
It is clear that there is no action plan for clearing roads, restoring electricity and providing medical and other vital services to Oahu neighborhoods after a hurricane hits. There is no preparation for it. For starters:
- Core streets need regular tree trimming and proper handling of poles and utilities.
- Placement of trucks, front loaders, ambulances and power units at key locations is essential.
- Emergency docks and “plugs” for Navy Submarines.
- Public second access for Waianae (tunnel to Kunia.)
Monday, September 27, 2010
Parks, Homeless, Water Mains, Sewers and Trash: Problems and Solutions
Park Maintenance and Beautification
Partial privatization and Adopt-a-Park corporate and club programs. Private Moanalua Gardens is in top shape. Fully restore the War Memorial Natatorium. Keep Hanauma Bay in top shape -- both visitor side and nature.
Homeless in Parks and Beaches; Kuhio Park Terrace All Full with Micronesians
Shrink the $30,000 Hawaii Homeless Benefit Package. Repatriate mainland homeless. Receive much more support and accommodations for the Federal PACT with Micronesia. Remove mentally ill homeless from streets, parks and beaches and provide them with proper care. Use decommissioned TheBus for overnight sheltering. No sleeping on public parks, etc.
364 Water Main Breaks per Year
High priority replacement of old mains, especially those in corrosive low lying areas. Our fixing rate needs to accelerate.
Sewers Consent Decree with EPA Will Cost Over $7 Billion If Done by the City
A Public Private Partnership (PPP) for reconstruction, maintenance and operation to infuse private capital, to share risk and to operate sewers like a utility. With PPP, construction costs decrease, quality and timeliness improve. Better management. Bottom line: lower monthly bills and better infrastructure.
Oahu’s Recycling Is a Glorified Sorting and Exportation of Trash. Yard Waste Recycling Is Basically Mulching and Dumping. 20% of Trash Burnt is Flyash.
Re-use tires and glass into pavements. Convert flyash into pozolanic cement. Remanufacture plastics into benches, bump stops and other simple and useful parts. Incentivize a private biomass plant to generate electricity out of the voluminous routine green waste collection by the city.
Partial privatization and Adopt-a-Park corporate and club programs. Private Moanalua Gardens is in top shape. Fully restore the War Memorial Natatorium. Keep Hanauma Bay in top shape -- both visitor side and nature.
Homeless in Parks and Beaches; Kuhio Park Terrace All Full with Micronesians
Shrink the $30,000 Hawaii Homeless Benefit Package. Repatriate mainland homeless. Receive much more support and accommodations for the Federal PACT with Micronesia. Remove mentally ill homeless from streets, parks and beaches and provide them with proper care. Use decommissioned TheBus for overnight sheltering. No sleeping on public parks, etc.
364 Water Main Breaks per Year
High priority replacement of old mains, especially those in corrosive low lying areas. Our fixing rate needs to accelerate.
Sewers Consent Decree with EPA Will Cost Over $7 Billion If Done by the City
A Public Private Partnership (PPP) for reconstruction, maintenance and operation to infuse private capital, to share risk and to operate sewers like a utility. With PPP, construction costs decrease, quality and timeliness improve. Better management. Bottom line: lower monthly bills and better infrastructure.
Oahu’s Recycling Is a Glorified Sorting and Exportation of Trash. Yard Waste Recycling Is Basically Mulching and Dumping. 20% of Trash Burnt is Flyash.
Re-use tires and glass into pavements. Convert flyash into pozolanic cement. Remanufacture plastics into benches, bump stops and other simple and useful parts. Incentivize a private biomass plant to generate electricity out of the voluminous routine green waste collection by the city.
Tuesday, September 7, 2010
Wednesday, August 25, 2010
Tampa Expressway Spurs Tons of Development
Let me first quickly remind the reader about our Kapiolani Boulevard re-development lesson which I first posted in 2008, and then we will go to the pictorial tour of the 10 mile, $320 Million, 60% elevated on single posts Tampa Expressway.
Does Rail Stimulate Long Term Redevelopment? We do not need rail for development and opportunities to flourish. We need a robust economy, a well-paid populous, low taxes, good quality products and services (tourism, education, local products, etc.), steady and smart leadership, and reliable infrastructure and government operations. Rail is simply a scheme to rob a million people (through taxes) in order to benefit a few hundred insiders and a few thousand workers, most of them temporary.
On to Tampa now... Dr. Martin Stone, Planning Director for the Tampa-Hillsborough County Expressway Authority estimates that about $1 billion in new development at its urban end has occurred since the opening of the Tampa Expressway.
Unlike regular Transit Oriented Development (TOD) which are highly subsidized, no tax incentives were needed for these developments.
2052 Streetscape showing the Grand Central (residential, parking, multiple floors of office and commercial on first floor) development, the Slade (residential and commercial on first floor) development and the Towers of Channelside (residential, parking and commercial on first floor at the far end of photo)
2053 Grand Central and Ventana (3 separate buildings - Madison Street view)
2054 Grand Central and Ventana (3 separate buildings - Kennedy Blvd view)
2055 The Slade on Meridian
2057 The Slade with Grand Central in background
2060 Towers with retail on first floor and Cruise ship parking garage in background
2061 New History Museum (on left) with Towers on right
2062 New History Museum
Wednesday, August 18, 2010
Tourism Industry: Fact, Action, and Possible Destruction
Fact: Tourism is important to all of us on Oahu but the grim reality is that since the 1996-1998 high, tourism has been at a fairly constant slide, as DBEDT monthly statistics since 1990 show.
The graph above of international arrivals shows that 9/11 and SARS and Iraq war had strong negative impacts. Add to this the weak national economy since 2008 and domestic arrivals also have dropped sharply. See below.
Today's visitors observe a congested, aging and increasingly unappealing Oahu with potholed roads, tired looking parks, and hordes of homeless.
Action is needed now. My vision is to restore the postcard image of Oahu as a great tourist destination by focusing on fixing the infrastructure and maintaining our parks, beaches and tourist attractions. That is real value to the tourist industry and all of us.
The more attractive we are as a visitor destination, the more the hotels can get higher rates and higher quality jobs in the hospitality industry can be had.
Destruction. My opponents in the mayor race will significantly harm Oahu's tourist industry in three ways:
(1) Both advocate rail which is a giant project that will involve 10 years of messy construction to deliver a system that very few will use, according to the city's forecasts. The construction mess and the very ugly all-elevated rail line will be tourism killers for Oahu.
(2) The rail is gigantically expensive so other needs such as dilapidated parks and beaches, homelessness and potholed roads will be under-funded. Thus they will get worse and Oahu's tourist appeal will worsen.
(3) The taxes needed to construct and maintain rail and the sewers add up to $10 billion which means heavy extra taxes. How heavy? The typical sewer bill 15 years from now will be about $2,500 per year plus another $1,000 for rail for each taxpayer.
People in the hospitality industry will find it increasingly difficult to afford to live in Hawaii. Hotels may increase wages and will have to pay higher city taxes. So hotels will have to charge much more for their rooms to offset the costs, thus making a visitation to Hawaii more costly and less competitive.
My competitors' model for "rail jobs" is a long term disaster.
The graph above of international arrivals shows that 9/11 and SARS and Iraq war had strong negative impacts. Add to this the weak national economy since 2008 and domestic arrivals also have dropped sharply. See below.
Today's visitors observe a congested, aging and increasingly unappealing Oahu with potholed roads, tired looking parks, and hordes of homeless.
Action is needed now. My vision is to restore the postcard image of Oahu as a great tourist destination by focusing on fixing the infrastructure and maintaining our parks, beaches and tourist attractions. That is real value to the tourist industry and all of us.
The more attractive we are as a visitor destination, the more the hotels can get higher rates and higher quality jobs in the hospitality industry can be had.
Destruction. My opponents in the mayor race will significantly harm Oahu's tourist industry in three ways:
(1) Both advocate rail which is a giant project that will involve 10 years of messy construction to deliver a system that very few will use, according to the city's forecasts. The construction mess and the very ugly all-elevated rail line will be tourism killers for Oahu.
(2) The rail is gigantically expensive so other needs such as dilapidated parks and beaches, homelessness and potholed roads will be under-funded. Thus they will get worse and Oahu's tourist appeal will worsen.
(3) The taxes needed to construct and maintain rail and the sewers add up to $10 billion which means heavy extra taxes. How heavy? The typical sewer bill 15 years from now will be about $2,500 per year plus another $1,000 for rail for each taxpayer.
People in the hospitality industry will find it increasingly difficult to afford to live in Hawaii. Hotels may increase wages and will have to pay higher city taxes. So hotels will have to charge much more for their rooms to offset the costs, thus making a visitation to Hawaii more costly and less competitive.
My competitors' model for "rail jobs" is a long term disaster.
Hawaii's Energy Options
Status quo, Part 1: oil and coal -- Coal will remain affordable for decades (excluding made up carbon taxes). Oil prices will reach $150/barrel again in the future and at anything over $200/barrel using 2010 as a base (barrel under $80) will stress transportation budgets on Oahu, cost of goods, and price of flights.
Status quo, Part 2: burn trash is profitable now and probably still doable at $150 per barrel of oil. Oil is essential to mix with trash for the incineration process. The downside is that about 20% of the trash volume is converted into trash so every five years the pile that needs to be land-filled is as big as one year's worth of land-filled trash.
Other energy from trash: Collect methane from decommissioned trash land fills. This is a remote possibility for the Waimanalo Gulch and the power gain will likely be small.
Geothermal is a great option, very clean, but for the Big Island only. With all the volcanic activity, it makes little sense to burn oil on the Big Island for electricity generation or for other renewable energy installations.
Then there is a host of renewable energy technologies some of which have known risks, costs, reliability and effectiveness. Others are heavily dependent on subsidies to make their cost per mega-Watt (MW) competitive when oil costs less than $150/barrel. The mix that is worth investigating for feasibility, planning and costing in producing electric power includes:
Status quo, Part 2: burn trash is profitable now and probably still doable at $150 per barrel of oil. Oil is essential to mix with trash for the incineration process. The downside is that about 20% of the trash volume is converted into trash so every five years the pile that needs to be land-filled is as big as one year's worth of land-filled trash.
Other energy from trash: Collect methane from decommissioned trash land fills. This is a remote possibility for the Waimanalo Gulch and the power gain will likely be small.
Geothermal is a great option, very clean, but for the Big Island only. With all the volcanic activity, it makes little sense to burn oil on the Big Island for electricity generation or for other renewable energy installations.
Then there is a host of renewable energy technologies some of which have known risks, costs, reliability and effectiveness. Others are heavily dependent on subsidies to make their cost per mega-Watt (MW) competitive when oil costs less than $150/barrel. The mix that is worth investigating for feasibility, planning and costing in producing electric power includes:
- photovoltaic (PV) or solar,
- wind, various technologies,
- wave, various technologies,
- biomass, various technologies,
- nuclear, various sizes, configurations and location options,
- other less known technologies, some of which appropriate for small scale deployments.
Wednesday, August 11, 2010
Nuclear Power in Oahu's Future?
My statement at a recent mayoral debate that Hawaii should consider a nuclear plant for electricity stirred up some interest and apprehension.
Nuclear power for electricity in Oahu's future?
The likely answer is yes in order to sustain one million people and six million annual visitors 2,000 miles away from most resources, given that over 90% of the electricity is now fueled by oil. Planning for it, including a senate vote by over 2/3 in the affirmative, will take well over 10 years. So nuclear power is possible perhaps in 20 years, about 20 miles off-shore, for one 1,000 MW power plant.
The fact is that at the present time Oahu has nuclear reactors totaling over 1,000 MW just 6 miles from Aloha Tower. See picture below.
Earlier this year,
The scarcity and cost of fossil fuels makes the development of expensive nuclear energy a cost-effective if not essential proposition. France and Japan are leading examples of reliance on nuclear power with minimal ill effects. At the first oil crisis in 1973, only 1% of Japan’s electricity was produced by nuclear energy. By the second oil crisis of 1979, 4% was from nuclear; in 2000 the ratio was up to 12% and the 2010 goal is 15%.
As of 2005, Japan had 52 operating nuclear plants, 3 in construction and 8 in planning and design. France is even more ahead: Its 59 nuclear plants produce 88% of the country’s electric power. There are about 440 nuclear power plants on the globe. France, Japan and the U.S. combined produce over 55% of the nuclear power energy on the globe.
Click link to READ MORE and see the list of our Pearl Harbor nuclear submarines.
Nuclear power for electricity in Oahu's future?
The likely answer is yes in order to sustain one million people and six million annual visitors 2,000 miles away from most resources, given that over 90% of the electricity is now fueled by oil. Planning for it, including a senate vote by over 2/3 in the affirmative, will take well over 10 years. So nuclear power is possible perhaps in 20 years, about 20 miles off-shore, for one 1,000 MW power plant.
The fact is that at the present time Oahu has nuclear reactors totaling over 1,000 MW just 6 miles from Aloha Tower. See picture below.
- 15 nuclear submarines are home-ported in Pearl Harbor
- 440 nuclear power plants are on the planet now
Earlier this year,
- Bill Gates proposed mini nuclear reactors as the essential means for the future of the human race on the planet.
- President Obama released over $8 Billion in loan guarantees for a new nuclear power plant in Georgia.
- Hawaii Legislature proposed a bill to study nuclear power for Hawaii.
The scarcity and cost of fossil fuels makes the development of expensive nuclear energy a cost-effective if not essential proposition. France and Japan are leading examples of reliance on nuclear power with minimal ill effects. At the first oil crisis in 1973, only 1% of Japan’s electricity was produced by nuclear energy. By the second oil crisis of 1979, 4% was from nuclear; in 2000 the ratio was up to 12% and the 2010 goal is 15%.
As of 2005, Japan had 52 operating nuclear plants, 3 in construction and 8 in planning and design. France is even more ahead: Its 59 nuclear plants produce 88% of the country’s electric power. There are about 440 nuclear power plants on the globe. France, Japan and the U.S. combined produce over 55% of the nuclear power energy on the globe.
Click link to READ MORE and see the list of our Pearl Harbor nuclear submarines.
Wednesday, August 4, 2010
Managed Road PPP is the Key for Jobs, Low Taxes and Congestion Relief
02 Aug 2010 -- Eight groups eye Puerto Rico’s first toll road deal. A potential concession for two of the island’s toll roads drew interest from a mix of infrastructure funds, including those managed by Morgan Stanley, JPMorgan and Goldman Sachs.
This is five years after the spectacular failure of installing a heavy rail system on the island city of Jan Juan. San Juan rail had a 100% overrun in construction costs and five years after opening achieved far less than 50% of the forecast daily ridership for the opening year.
Roads both bring congestion relief and private money. Managed roadways are a win-win for commuters and taxpayers.
Here is a more eloquent take on solving congestion, providing jobs and keeping taxation in check by Economics Professor William A. Galston of the University of Maryland and fellow with the Brookings Institution.
"The traditional response is to use the federal government's taxing authority to raise infrastructure funds, and appropriations to fund specific projects. This model has hit a wall: not only will it be very difficult to raise taxes in current or foreseeable circumstances, but there's also the problem of how local and special interests influence, even determine, project selection for reasons that have nothing to do with economic efficiency."
"Over the past generation, we have systematically underinvested in the foundation of an efficient economy and society — namely, infrastructure. Anyone who has traveled in recent years knows that our systems of transportation and information are no longer world-class."
Today, we have trillions of dollars of capital sitting on the sidelines earning almost no return, and millions of long-term unemployed workers who would be thrilled to receive a steady paycheck again. The task is to bring these two factors of production together around projects that make sense.
This is five years after the spectacular failure of installing a heavy rail system on the island city of Jan Juan. San Juan rail had a 100% overrun in construction costs and five years after opening achieved far less than 50% of the forecast daily ridership for the opening year.
Roads both bring congestion relief and private money. Managed roadways are a win-win for commuters and taxpayers.
Here is a more eloquent take on solving congestion, providing jobs and keeping taxation in check by Economics Professor William A. Galston of the University of Maryland and fellow with the Brookings Institution.
"The traditional response is to use the federal government's taxing authority to raise infrastructure funds, and appropriations to fund specific projects. This model has hit a wall: not only will it be very difficult to raise taxes in current or foreseeable circumstances, but there's also the problem of how local and special interests influence, even determine, project selection for reasons that have nothing to do with economic efficiency."
"Over the past generation, we have systematically underinvested in the foundation of an efficient economy and society — namely, infrastructure. Anyone who has traveled in recent years knows that our systems of transportation and information are no longer world-class."
Today, we have trillions of dollars of capital sitting on the sidelines earning almost no return, and millions of long-term unemployed workers who would be thrilled to receive a steady paycheck again. The task is to bring these two factors of production together around projects that make sense.
- To attract private capital, projects must earn a reasonable return, which means increased reliance on user fees (tolls or levies per unit consumed) rather than general taxation.
- Because most infrastructure projects generate public goods (such as economic growth in the areas it opens up) as well as private goods (such as easier commutes).
- To promote economic efficiency and growth, projects must be chosen on economic rather than political grounds. The new model requires a shift away from congressional dominance of the selection process toward an empowered board substantially insulated from day-to-day political pressures.
Sunday, August 1, 2010
Freeway Multi-car Collision. Three Apparent Lessons.
Sunday, August 1, 2010, 4:00 PM. A friend sent me three pictures from an accident on H-1 Freeway, Honolulu-bound, near Aiea minutes after it had occurred. Here are a few lessons from the three cell phone pictures received.
(1) This police car is parked at the wrong angle. The police car that blocks and protects the accident scene should be parked in a direction that guides unaffected drivers to the safe way around the scene.
(2) The police officer is talking to involved drivers on the freeway. On a freeway scene all unharmed persons need to be relocated to the shoulders immediately.
(3) This truck appears to be the start of the multi-car "spin outs" on the slick pavement. Notice the old, worn, dirty and off-road style tires. A vehicle with proper highway tires might have not caused this half dozen vehicle collision.
(1) This police car is parked at the wrong angle. The police car that blocks and protects the accident scene should be parked in a direction that guides unaffected drivers to the safe way around the scene.
(2) The police officer is talking to involved drivers on the freeway. On a freeway scene all unharmed persons need to be relocated to the shoulders immediately.
(3) This truck appears to be the start of the multi-car "spin outs" on the slick pavement. Notice the old, worn, dirty and off-road style tires. A vehicle with proper highway tires might have not caused this half dozen vehicle collision.
Poverty of Dollars is Largely a Statistical Creation. Poverty of Spirit is Real.
Walter Williams of the Jewish World Review makes a powerful argument that poverty as applicable worldwide is almost absent in the US. He says:
"Material poverty can be measured relatively or absolutely. An absolute measure would consist of some minimum quantity of goods and services deemed adequate for a baseline level of survival. Achieving that level means that poverty has been eliminated. However, if poverty is defined as, say, the lowest one-fifth of the income distribution, it is impossible to eliminate poverty. Everyone's income could double, triple and quadruple, but there will always be the lowest one-fifth."The real malaise in the U.S. is poverty of the spirit which leads to many ills in our modern society:
"Yesterday's material poverty is all but gone. In all too many cases, it has been replaced by a more debilitating kind of poverty — behavioral poverty or poverty of the spirit. This kind of poverty refers to conduct and values that prevent the development of healthy families, work ethic and self-sufficiency. The absence of these values virtually guarantees pathological lifestyles that include: drug and alcohol addiction, crime, violence, incarceration, illegitimacy, single-parent households, dependency and erosion of work ethic. Poverty of the spirit is a direct result of the perverse incentives created by some of our efforts to address material poverty."
Read his full article "Where Best to Be Poor" for a fuller argument why material poverty is almost largely absent in the U.S.
Friday, July 23, 2010
Oahu Statistics: City, State and Federal Employees
The graph below shows City, State and Federal employment counts on Oahu from 1990 to 2010.
City jobs have been above 10,000 employees and over time they grew by almost 30% while at the same time population grew by less than 10%.
Federal jobs were at an all time high from January 1990 to September 1993 and retrenched to below 30,000 due to the combined effects of Hurricane Iniki, the Gulf War and the burst of the economic bubble in Asia. Despite the recent prolonged recession, federal job count has increased to over 30,000 again since 2007.
The number of state jobs fluctuates greatly from month to month. September almost always has the lowest number of employees followed by a sudden spike of a few thousand in October. This pattern clearly depicts the seasonal effect of 9-month public school teachers (state DOE.)
Soon after the 2008 recession the total State employment on Oahu surpassed 60,000 people for the first time but the count receded in 2010. In the 19 years from 1990 to 2009 state employee count on Oahu increased by 10,000 or +20% whereas population grew by less than 10%.
In other words, between 1990 and 2009, the state government on Oahu added an entire Honolulu city government onto itself!
Two more observations. Bloated government comes at a high cost to the taxpayer. According to a recent article in The San Francisco Chronicle, Hawaii tops the list in total state taxes among all states in the union. That's a very pricey distinction.
Oahu state government added a lot more people as soon as Information Technology (IT, that is computer automation of bureaucracies) took hold. It appears that the powers in charge (government, legislature and unions) kept thousands in the dark ages and hired 5,000 new government workers for the new ages.
City jobs have been above 10,000 employees and over time they grew by almost 30% while at the same time population grew by less than 10%.
Federal jobs were at an all time high from January 1990 to September 1993 and retrenched to below 30,000 due to the combined effects of Hurricane Iniki, the Gulf War and the burst of the economic bubble in Asia. Despite the recent prolonged recession, federal job count has increased to over 30,000 again since 2007.
The number of state jobs fluctuates greatly from month to month. September almost always has the lowest number of employees followed by a sudden spike of a few thousand in October. This pattern clearly depicts the seasonal effect of 9-month public school teachers (state DOE.)
Soon after the 2008 recession the total State employment on Oahu surpassed 60,000 people for the first time but the count receded in 2010. In the 19 years from 1990 to 2009 state employee count on Oahu increased by 10,000 or +20% whereas population grew by less than 10%.
In other words, between 1990 and 2009, the state government on Oahu added an entire Honolulu city government onto itself!
Two more observations. Bloated government comes at a high cost to the taxpayer. According to a recent article in The San Francisco Chronicle, Hawaii tops the list in total state taxes among all states in the union. That's a very pricey distinction.
Oahu state government added a lot more people as soon as Information Technology (IT, that is computer automation of bureaucracies) took hold. It appears that the powers in charge (government, legislature and unions) kept thousands in the dark ages and hired 5,000 new government workers for the new ages.
Tuesday, July 20, 2010
Rail Lessons from Greece
- Losses at Hellenic Railways continue to mount — at the rate of $3.8 million, a day. Its total debt has increased to $13 billion, or about 5% of Greece’s gross domestic product.
- Some have argued that Hellenic Railways should shut down the majority of its routes; trains manned by drivers being paid as much as $130,000 a year frequently run empty.
- The general secretary for the Greek Transport Ministry, contends that the government’s plan to close at least 35 loss-making routes and cut 2,500 jobs will make Hellenic Railways attractive to foreign investors.
How many investors have "Mufi Hannemann and the Pro-Railers" found?
Zero investors but thousands of payers! The 400,000 Oahu taxpayers!
Source: All bullets excerpted from New York Times' Greek Rail System’s Debt Adds to Economic Woes.
Friday, July 16, 2010
The Desperate Statements for a Failed Rail Project
Honolulu's sewers ate Mayor Hannemann's rail. See
Now compare items (1) and (2) below to get a sense of the mayor's desperation.
(1) MUFI HANNEMANN
(Wed., July 14, 2010)—Mayor Mufi Hannemann today said he is very pleased that Congressman Jim Oberstar, chairman of the U.S. House Committee on Transportation and Infrastructure, yesterday publicly referred to Honolulu’s rail project “the premier transit project in the entire country.”
(2) ACTUAL FEDERAL TRANSIT ADMINISTRATION ASSESSMENT
We are listed in Preliminary Engineering for 2011
No money for Honolulu this year
Read Page 139 BARELY passable overall MEDIUM rating.
Capital Costs gets a Low rating
Operating Costs etc. gets a Medium-Low rating
Capital Cost Estimates, Planning Assumptions, and Financial Capacity: Low
· Assumptions regarding growth in GET revenues and Section 5309 bus discretionary funds are
optimistic compared to historical experience. Financing costs appear to be understated.
· The capital cost estimate is considered reasonable.
· The financial plan show the City has little ability to address funding shortfalls or cost increases.
The GET surcharge revenues that will be applied to project-related debt service provide very slim Operating Cost Estimates, Planning Assumptions, and Financial Capacity: Medium-Low
· Assumptions regarding state operating subsidies and growth in rail unit operating costs and bus and paratransit operating costs are optimistic compared to historical experience.
· The operating cash flow assumes a balanced budget, with no accrual of an operating surplus or reserve.
Sewer settlement will cost Honolulu $4.7 billion over 25 years
Recall that in 2008 when we voted for rail and 50.6% said yes, the cost of the rail was $4.6 Billion. Now sewers alone are costing us $4.5 Billion.Now compare items (1) and (2) below to get a sense of the mayor's desperation.
(1) MUFI HANNEMANN
(Wed., July 14, 2010)—Mayor Mufi Hannemann today said he is very pleased that Congressman Jim Oberstar, chairman of the U.S. House Committee on Transportation and Infrastructure, yesterday publicly referred to Honolulu’s rail project “the premier transit project in the entire country.”
(2) ACTUAL FEDERAL TRANSIT ADMINISTRATION ASSESSMENT
We are listed in Preliminary Engineering for 2011
No money for Honolulu this year
Read Page 139 BARELY passable overall MEDIUM rating.
Capital Costs gets a Low rating
Operating Costs etc. gets a Medium-Low rating
Capital Cost Estimates, Planning Assumptions, and Financial Capacity: Low
· Assumptions regarding growth in GET revenues and Section 5309 bus discretionary funds are
optimistic compared to historical experience. Financing costs appear to be understated.
· The capital cost estimate is considered reasonable.
· The financial plan show the City has little ability to address funding shortfalls or cost increases.
The GET surcharge revenues that will be applied to project-related debt service provide very slim Operating Cost Estimates, Planning Assumptions, and Financial Capacity: Medium-Low
· Assumptions regarding state operating subsidies and growth in rail unit operating costs and bus and paratransit operating costs are optimistic compared to historical experience.
· The operating cash flow assumes a balanced budget, with no accrual of an operating surplus or reserve.
Tuesday, July 13, 2010
Abandoned, Unfinished, Elevated Rail ... For the Children
When all arguments in favor of a six billion dollar elevated rail boondoggle on Oahu prove to be myths, then proponents say, "we need rail for the sake of our children."
Unfortunately, they fail to realize that the six billion rail is heavily mortgaged and payments will be heavy and permanent "for the children."
Here is how an abandoned, unfinished, elevated rail can be turned into an asset for the children.
This story has two lessons:
(1) Elevated rail can be stopped and abandoned long after construction has started.
(2) A playground is a far better and far more affordable quality-of-life addition than ugly elevated rail.
Unfortunately, they fail to realize that the six billion rail is heavily mortgaged and payments will be heavy and permanent "for the children."
Here is how an abandoned, unfinished, elevated rail can be turned into an asset for the children.
This story has two lessons:
(1) Elevated rail can be stopped and abandoned long after construction has started.
(2) A playground is a far better and far more affordable quality-of-life addition than ugly elevated rail.
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