Reason Foundation: 2024 Update on the Decline of Electric Vehicles

Robert Poole's article titled The (Not So?) Surprising Decline of Electric Vehicles gives a useful update on the reduction of EV sales and manufacturing in the US.  All the text below is from Robert's newsletter.

Recent headlines in business media report trouble with the electric vehicle market. Last month, (all-EV) Tesla reported a 45% profit decrease in the most recent quarter, due to lower sales and the lower prices it’s recently been charging due to increased EV competition. GM announced delays in two planned EV factories—one for electric Buicks and the other for electric trucks. And Ford CEO Jim Farley announced that the company would focus more on smaller, less-expensive EVs, since its large ones are selling poorly. Ford’s EV unit had a $1.1 billion loss for the second quarter of this year.

What accounts for EVs’ declining popularity? A survey of electric vehicle owners by J.D. Power found that their battery electric vehicles (BEVs) and plug-in hybrids went back to the dealer for repairs at three times the rate of gasoline-fueled cars. And despite early claims that EVs would be low-maintenance due to fewer moving parts, etc., repairs and maintenance average more labor hours (possibly because mechanics are still getting familiar with them).

Kelly Blue Book and Manheim found that the residual value of BEVs after two years is significantly lower than that of gasoline cars, while hybrids held slightly more value than gas cars after two years.

Finally, when an EV gets into a collision, it is significantly more likely to be declared a total loss, rather than being repaired.

My engineer friend in Sweden, Michael Sena, editor of The Dispatcher, reported in the Summer 2024 issue the results of a survey of EV buyers by McKinsey & Company’s Center for the Future of Mobility, released June 12. They found that 46% of BEV purchasers say they will go back to an internal combustion vehicle for their next purchase. Their main concerns were about charging, the high cost of ownership, and the complexity of long-distance travel. Respondents were also upset that the range of the BEVs they purchased is considerably less than what it says on the sticker. They were also surprised by poor performance in very cold and very hot weather. Sena also reports the result of a different survey of residual value, by Cox Automotive, whose results paralleled those reported above—a faster decline than for internal combustion vehicles.

These may be short-term problems, due to the technology being new and charging networks still being rudimentary. But these findings certainly put down a caution flag for an expected total EV replacement within the next several decades.

Sample Savings of Buying a Used Car

 Excluding collectibles and a handful of specialized car models, buying a used car is cheaper than new.

Now that supply chain problems and electronic chip shortages are in the past, the used car market in the US has largely returned to pre-Covid-19, sane used car valuations.

The September issue of Consumer Reports includes a sample of eight 2021 model gasoline cars with their new car price in 2021 and their used car price in 2024. The savings are substantial, as shown below.

The CU article does not include any Electric Vehicles, but several of these have even lower price differences as used cars.

A Student's 3 Good Questions About Honolulu Rail

I receive about a dozen requests for interviews from students in Hawaii, mostly from the Univ. of Hawaii, working on papers or presentations about Honolulu's rail. Some of them are pure "make work" for me as the student lists 10 to 20 questions and expect me to write their paper for them. This recent inquiry from a high schooler was brief and on point. His request and my response below.

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Dear Mr. Prevedouros,

I am a student at ‘Iolani School and would like to ask questions and gather information about the Hawaii rail system and its impact on traffic congestion. I read the transcript of your interview with Mr. Akina and read the article you wrote about the rail, and wanted to understand more about your perspective on the Hawaii rail system. Below are a few questions I would appreciate your insight on:

1. As many people know, you were opposed to the rail. You mentioned many red flags that you believed were going to be problematic. Now that the rail has opened, what are the top three indicators that proved you were right? 
2. Do you know where I can find data that shows whether or not the rail has succeeded in diminishing traffic as was promised? I haven’t been able to locate any statistics that prove the money was well-spent or that the investment was worth it for tax-payers (if that is possible)?
3. Considering your past criticisms on the rail, do you see any potential for the rail to become successful in the long run? And if so, what changes would be necessary to achieve that goal?

Thank you for taking the time to read and answer my questions!

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Here are brief answers to your important questions, but first, I should clarify that as a conscientious engineer, I oppose stupid infrastructure proposals, not rail as a mode for metropolitan transportation. In fact, in my textbook, I recommend metro rail for dense communities over 5 million people; and high speed rail for connecting large urban centers located 100 to 500 miles apart.

1. Exorbitant costs for what it is (length and capacity) and very low ridership. The costs shouldn't have exceeded $6.4 billion but it'll exceed $12 billion (double or more than my high estimate of $6.4; at the time Oahu voted for it, its cost was stated at $4.6 billion). I also estimated that, when completed, rail won't carry the 105,000 daily riders forecast by the city-paid consultants, but up to 50,000. Post-Covid, 30,000 looks like the new maximum. So... the cost per passenger will be almost 6 times higher than originally planned!
2. Presently the rail carries 3,000 person trips (riders) a day. Its daily productivity is equivalent to 6 to 10 city buses, so its effect on traffic is minuscule and imperceptible. Recall that the city's EIS stated that the weekday number of trips on Oahu exceed 4 million. If you divide my estimate of rail trips by that you get... 30000/4000000=0.75%... that's less than 1% of Oahu's trips served by the rail, so even when rail is completed, its effect on traffic congestion will be practically zero.
3. Only after pigs fly! Unfortunately, until it is demolished or replaced, it will be a constant and major drag for Oahu's economy, i.e., a constant loss of taxpayer money to keep it going. Fares, at best, will cover 10% of its operating expenses and none of its construction and replacement or renovation costs that come due every 20 years or so.  After 30 years of operation, the delayed refurbishment of BART cost nearly $15 billion!

The Riveting Events of Ms. Chao's Drowning in a Tesla X

Click for the full article by Michael L. Sena 

Wiki: Ms. Angela Chao was chairwoman and chief executive of her family's shipping business, the Foremost Group, which operates a global fleet of bulk carrier ships. The Chaos have a net worth of $14.2 billion, according to Forbes.

<quote>This incident became international news for two reasons: 1) the person who drove the car was well known and very wealthy; 2) the person was the sister of Elaine Chao, who is both a former U.S. Secretary of Transportation and the wife of the current U.S. Senate Minority Leader, Mitch McConnell. The fact that the car was a TESLA added to the interest because the reason the car ended up in the water was linked to TESLA's unconventional gear-shifting design.

Approximately 400 people die each year in the U.S. in car accidents involving vehicle submersion. That is, the car enters the water and the person cannot get out before the inside of the car fills up with water and the person drowns. Four hundred is around 1% of all U.S. traffic-related deaths. We don't know how many of those deaths were intentional, or 'autocide' to use the official term, with the driver using the vehicle and water rather than intentionally colliding with an oncoming car or purposely steering their car into a tree. What we do know is that it is effective, because once a car is in the water and sinking, it is not easy for the driver or occupants to get out of the car, especially with most newer-model vehicles that have power windows and automatic door locks. That's the problem. A great deal of care is dedicated by car designers to how we enter and exit cars under normal conditions, and doors and windows are controlled, but cars are not designed for easy exit once they have entered into and are submerged under water, as the Angela Chao incident illustrates. 

It is not often that a car accident is described in such detail as the one involving Angela Chao. The entire event had many witnesses as the drama played out over two hours between when the car entered the water and when the victim was pronounced dead. Among the witnesses was Ms. Chao herself, who made a phone call to a friend as soon as the car was in the water, and she continued to talk to this person for eight minutes, relating the status of the water level rising inside the car and providing details of how the car ended up in the water. What we know about the incident is what was released by the police in a public report. Ms. Chao had invited seven close friends to the 4,500-acre ranch owned by her and her husband for a weekend party to celebrate the Chinese New Year. 

The party took place in a cottage on the ranch some distance from their home. The cottage is in close proximity to a pond. At around 11:37 p.m., security footage captured Chao walking alone and unsteadily to her vehicle, a Tesla Model X, wrapped in a blanket and holding a phone in her right hand. As she attempted a three point turn, the vehicle suddenly "shot backwards" down an embankment (or over a retaining wall; there are two variants of the story) and into the pond at 11.38. A toxicology report, ordered as part of the investigation into her death, revealed that Chao had a blood alcohol concentration of 0.233, well above the legal driving limit of 0.08 in Texas. Chao called one of her friends who was at the party at 11:42 p.m. At this point she had not followed the first rule of surviving a water-related accident, and the call violated the second rule.

Rule #1: When a car is entering the water, open a window and prepare to exit the vehicle as soon as it hits the water. The vehicle's electrical system should continue to function for at least a few minutes, so even electric window controls should work.

Rule #2: Don't waste precious time calling the emergency services until you are out of the vehicle. They won't get to you in time to keep you from drowning. A car can fill up with water in 60 seconds; the Tesla Model X took eight minutes.

The vehicle at this point was apparently floating but sinking slowly during the eight-minute phone call. Chao told her friend she had put the car in reverse instead of drive—a mistake she had made before, she told her friend—causing the vehicle to go over an embankment and into the pond. She told her friend that the water was rising inside the car, and she was going to die.

Someone (Another friend at the party?) called 911. Emergency units arrived at 12.23. a.m. We don't know if the inside of the car had filled with water at this point. Rescuers stood on top of the submerged vehicle and tried unsuccessfully to enter the vehicle, attempting to break the windows with a pole. A tow truck arrived, but the Tesla was over 20 meters from the shore, too far into the pond for the truck's chains to reach it. Additional emergency responders then arrived with diving gear and managed to break a side window, extracting Chao from the vehicle at approximately 12:56 a.m. EMS responders performed "advanced life support" for 43 minutes in an attempt to resuscitate her, but she was ultimately pronounced dead at 1:40 a.m. <end quote>

What Are the Best things Drivers Can Do to Improve their Driving Record?

My brief expert opinion in WalletHub:

Why is it important for drivers to check their Driving Record?

Much like people's credit scores and records, drivers need to inspect their driving records and be aware of relevant laws. There may be errors in the record that need correction. Also, incidents that occurred many years ago may still be listed although applicable law requires them to be expunged after, say, five years.

How often should drivers check their Driving Record?

Drivers should inspect their driving record if there is a change in their insurance premium if they plan to shop for and change insurance carriers, or every five years at the latest.

What is the best thing to do if drivers see an error on their Driving Record?

Drivers need to contact the DMV or relevant authority to request a correction and inform their auto insurance carrier of the error.

What are the best things drivers can do to improve their Driving Record?

Traffic safety clinics and defensive driving schools are good places to start improving a problematic driving record. Issues with drugs and alcohol must be dealt with; at a minimum, alternatives need to be found to avoid impaired driving at all times. Drivers with a propensity to speed would benefit by joining car racing clubs which provide safe ways to drive at high speed at race tracks and other venues off the public roads.

Is it Fair for Car Insurance Companies to Consider Gender, Age and Driver Occupation?

My brief expert opinion in WalletHub:

Insurance companies are under substantial strain from increasing losses due to many reasons such as extreme weather (e.g., floods that damage vehicles), increasing number of crashes and fatalities, increasing rates of distracted and impaired drivers (e.g., more states have legalized marijuana), etc.

These losses have necessitated increases in premiums. A fairer distribution of increases is done by assessing risk factors and assessing higher premiums for higher-risk drivers. Young male drivers and occupations with driving as a major part of the job (e.g., Uber, delivery workers) are examples of groups associated with higher crash involvement rates.

I have a good example of risk-based car insurance premiums in my own household. My spouse and my daughter have their own car and insurance. Both are insured by the same insurance company, and both drive 2018 model compact cars of similar market value. My spouse is a white-collar worker in her late 40s. My daughter is a 21-year-old college senior; her premium is 65% higher than her mom's!

2023's Greenest Cities in America

 My commentary in WalletHub's ranking of US green cities.

Honolulu ranked 2nd out of 100. Reno did well at 33.

Should cities invest in going green? What are the benefits?

Environmental and transportation solutions need to be tailored to an area's specific characteristics. Solutions for Tokyo are likely less suitable for Chicago. Cities with acute pollution issues should focus on smart city mitigations targeting pollution, such as electrification of bus fleets and incentives for EVs. Cities with acute traffic congestion should focus on smart city congestion mitigation, such as adaptive traffic signal management and intelligent time-dependent road pricing.

What policies or investments offer the biggest bang for the buck?

Smart traffic management for both arterial streets and freeways is the most common low-hanging fruit with moderate costs and substantial congestion and pollution reduction. Priority lanes and traffic signal preemption for Bus Rapid Transit are cost-effective smart city improvements for public transport.

How can state and local authorities attract renewable energy companies and other green businesses?

By incentivizing the electrification of transportation, substantial new demand is generated which creates a need for power supply, which in turn, makes the establishment of new renewable energy suppliers welcome. A conducive framework for power purchasing agreements needs to be in place.

What are some easy ways individuals can go green without much cost or effort?

Several smart home solutions are affordable and effective in reducing power and fuel consumption. Hybrid light-duty vehicles are presently the most cost-effective choice for commuting and highway travel. Unfortunately, recycling is more of a feel-good initiative than an effective green option given that less than 10% of what is put into recycling collections is actually recycled, reused, or repurposed.

In evaluating the greenest cities, what are the top five indicators?

A generic list may serve as a guideline, but each city needs to focus on its most acute issues and deploy smart solutions that its taxpayers can afford, for mitigations.

Consumer Reports Can Be Wrong!

CONSUMER REPORTS: Can the Grid Handle EVs? Yes! 

They should really study this series: The EV transition at scale poses daunting challenges

 Dear Chris,

The answer in your blog is incorrect. It is predicated on:

"...Americans drive approximately 2.9 trillion miles a year,..." and "...The average efficiency of all 20 comes to 3.1 miles per kilowatt hour. "

Totals and averages can be grossly misleading and this is the case here.

Total power generation capacity may match total EV KWh demand over the course of a year. But this totally ignores diurnal patterns and Peak Demand periods! The grid often has a hard time providing enough power for the usual demands plus a/c on hot and humid days.

Some locations have spare capacity, some are nearly maxed out (California, Hawaii, many others), and the US grid is far from being interconnected to cover demand deficits.

This question can be answered with reasonable confidence only at the local/regional level based on historical patterns of daily KWh consumption, along with specific forecasts of EV in traffic by type... car, SUV, pickup, delivery truck, long distance truck.

-- 
Panos D. Prevedouros, PhD
Reno, Nevada
Past Chairman and Professor Emeritus
Civil and Environmental Engineering
University of Hawaii at Mānoa

Quick Rail Boondoggle Update

Rail boondoggles seem to multiply in the US.

• Honolulu rail is not alone at starting at under $5B in 2021, and surpassing $10B in 2020 with no ending in cost escalation, no opening date and continuously revealed construction problems (i.e., hammerhead pillar cracks) and operational problems (i.e., track switching "frogs.")

• Now Austin's rail which started at $5.8B has surpassed $10.3B while mostly incomplete.

• The pseudo high speed California HSR has surpassed $100B and is nowhere near Los Angeles or San Francisco.

Furthermore, "transit agencies nationwide are taking in less farebox revenue, with agencies recovering, on average, just 12.8 cents for every dollar they spent on operations in 2021, down from 32.3 cents in 2019." [Planetizen]

This indicates a much lower utilization and much higher resource consumption and pollution per passenger mile.

Let's build and expand more of these losers, shall we?

Why Panos Prevedouros left Hawaii

Mahalo to Dr. Keli'i Akina for the invitation and probing questions.

The state is at risk of a major natural catastrophe, he says, and its “suicidal” energy policy will just make everything worse

Hawaii’s policy mandate to go to 100% renewable energy is nothing short of suicidal.

That was the message of Panos Prevedouros, former chairman of the University of Hawaii civil engineering department, who spoke with host Keli’i Akina, president of the Grassroot Institute, on the June 22 episode of “Hawaii Together.”

Described by Akina as “one of Hawaii’s leading public intellectuals,” Prevedouros moved just last year from Honolulu, his home of 31 years, to Reno, Nevada. During his half-hour conversation with Akina, he explained why. Foremost was his concern about Hawaii’s energy policy and its relation to personal safety.

Because of its geographical isolation, he said, Hawaii needs reliable energy. In the event of a natural disaster, for example, Hawaii’s hospitals “must have reliable electricity for 10, 15, 20 days, or however long it takes for the military and other external providers of health assistance to come help a highly populated island like Oahu or Maui.”

Renewable options like wind and solar farms are not highly reliable, he said, especially since they can be totally demolished by the strong hurricane winds. Thus, Hawaii should be making reliability its top priority, even if that means using coal.

In general, Prevedouros said, Hawaii is totally unprepared for a natural disaster.

“I don’t see the [power] plants [or airports] being hardened. … Our harbors are absolutely not prepared to deal with a major surge from a hurricane or a major surge from a tsunami. Our harbors will be a complete mess. There will be cranes and they’re toppled and there will be containers all over the place.”

And when the Navy arrives from San Diego to help, he warned, “there will be nowhere for them to dock. Nobody is preparing plans to have resilience in our harbor.” 

He said the failure of Hawaii’s politicians to prepare better for a disaster is not peculiar to Hawaii.

“That’s a malaise that exists almost everywhere politically, because politicians, really, do not take a 1% to 2% risk very seriously, and plan to invest big money in that. However, unfortunately, bad luck … really catches up with these things, and we really need to protect the population.” 

Prevedouros said aside from his fears for his family’s safety, he left his beloved Hawaii because of a litany of “wrong” policy decisions.

“One wrong decision does not really change the whole picture,” he said. “There were so many wrong decisions, a litany of which, that, actually after that, I said, ‘Enough is enough.’” 

Well known as a critic of the Honolulu rail, Prevedouros said the recent proposal to stop the system a mile or so short of Ala Moana Center is “definitely a step in the right direction, but it’s not enough. They should have had the guts to stop it at Middle Street, and they probably will be forced to do something like that because now we have the other gift: inflation” — which is sure to drive up its construction costs.

To watch the entire conversation, click here.

Archegos -Theranos - Honolulu Rail: The Price of Lying

What do these three multi billion dollar failures have in common?

The repeated intentional lying about the workings and costs of each project.

Archegos (AXIOS)

The March 2021 implosion of the hedge fund-like Archegos was one for the ages, eventually costing banks like Morgan Stanley, Nomura and Credit Suisse billions of dollars.

Archegos' responses to questions were often "deceptive, false and misleading.”

It's interesting to see the banks portrayed as the victims in the saga, especially since several of them saw red flags around Archegos that made them nervous — but they stuck with him all the way down.

Theranos (Wikipedia)

By 2015, Forbes had named Holmes the youngest and wealthiest self-made female billionaire in America on the basis of a $9-billion valuation of her company. The credibility of Theranos was attributed in part to Holmes's personal connections and ability to recruit the support of influential people, including Henry Kissinger, George Shultz, Jim Mattis, and Betsy DeVos, all of whom had served or would go on to serve as U.S. presidential cabinet officials.

The decline of Theranos began in 2015, when a series of journalistic and regulatory investigations revealed doubts about the company's technology claims and whether Holmes had misled investors and the government. In 2018, the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) charged Theranos and Holmes with deceiving investors by "massive fraud" through false or exaggerated claims about the accuracy of the company's blood-testing technology.

Honolulu Rail

The project started by Mayor Mufi Hannemann as a 34 mile, $3 billion proposal in 2006 and settled into a 20 mile, $4.6 billion elevated steel-on-steel “light rail” in 2008, to be completed in 2019. At the present time, Honolulu Rail is an incomplete, underfunded 18-20 mile construction project with a year 2031 projected completion at a cost of well over $11 billion.

The project is under investigation by the US Department of Justice. There have been several allegations and instances of fraud and gross errors; two samples from 2016 and 2019:

• Change.org petition: Investigate the political corruption, fraud, and abuse involving the Honolulu Rail project.
• Suggesting that fraud may be the cause of cost overruns, City Council newcomer Heidi Tsuneyoshi is demanding a forensic audit of contracts tied to a plan to build a transit system for Honolulu. (A forensic audit was never approved by public officials.)

Similar to the multi-year lying and defrauding at Archegos and Theranos, the fraud (i.e., the irresponsible wasting of billions of taxpayer dollars) at Honolulu Rail continues unabated: “Inside the ‘frantic’ push to shorten rail and keep its federal funding -- Project officials stress that they’re still fully committed to getting rail to Ala Moana, but it’s still not clear financially how that would happen. Rail leaders are presenting a “truncated project scope” to the Federal Transit Administration in order to secure rail’s remaining federal dollars. Project officials stress that they’re still fully committed to getting rail to Ala Moana, but it’s still not clear financially how that would happen.” (Honolulu Civil Beat, April 28, 2022)

 

 

 

PSA: Avoid Airport Covid Testing by US Careways dba XpresCheck

April 23, 2022 UPDATE: BBB was unable to get ant response to my complaint from this shady company. See note at the end.

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My public service announcement is based on personal experience and follows my complaint filed with the Better Business Bureau.

My dispute with US Careways involves a rapid Covid test I did at their  Denver Int'l airport  XpresCheck lab on February 21. 2022 at a cost of $250.

US Careways specializes at rapid Covid tests at airports. (At an exorbitant price, but that's besides the point.) Their lab at DEN provided me with a negative covid result without a time stamp, making the test invalid for my expensive international flight for which it was required.

See Figure 1 for the PDF results and Figure 2 for the on screen results.

I have taken several Covid tests required for flights and all of them come with the date and time the specimen was collected. See my sample test from CVS which correctly shows the date and time (Figure 3). This was the first incomplete test and caused me tremendous aggravation at Dulles Airport prior to being able to get on my flight to Europe. 

They must be stopped from charging $250 for a $10 test and provide incomplete (useless) results. 

Adding insult to injury, Chase Visa refused my dispute of this charge. They opined that the test was conducted as promised. But the service provided to me is like a car manufacturer selling me a car without a full VIN. I can't register and legally use the car!

Figure 1

Figure 2

Figure 3

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In regards to your correspondence concerning US Careways, your position was communicated to the company. We regret to inform you that BBB was unsuccessful in obtaining a response from the company.

When a business does not respond to a dispute, its report with BBB is updated to reflect an unanswered dispute which has an adverse affect on its BBB rating. If the company has contacted you, please let us know so that our files may be updated. If not, we regret that BBB can be of no further assistance.

We appreciate you taking the time to contact BBB and report your experience. Please be assured that your complaint will remain in BBB’s file for this company for three years, and may be referred to if a pattern of similar practices emerges.

Madi Posey
Your Better Business Bureau

The Causes of Inflation

Consumer prices are up 7% year over year, the highest rate of increase since 1982. It's causing major headaches for the White House. Until we diagnose what’s really causing the inflation, we won’t be able to treat it, said economist Stephanie Kelton. (Axios, 1/24/2022)

The causes of inflation are rather obvious now. Free government money has created a substantial INCREASE in DEMAND. On the other hand, worker shortages worldwide due to free money from governments (why work... often for less $$$), and more worker shortages due to Covid illness/fears/deaths, retirements and fatigue (see nurses, teachers and cashiers) have caused a substantial DECREASE in SUPPLY. 

The reduced supply of materials and workers to create products and services that people demand has pushed costs up, which is inflation.

These are the main causes for the inflation. Other parts of the cost increase include infrastructure problems (capacity at ports and warehouses), energy jitters due to political games (Russia) and due to renewable and other expensive mandates, regional weather problems that compound the difficulties above, and various national or regional controls and restrictions for Covid that reduce productivity or directly increase costs.

The worst is not over, because now there is pressure for wage increases in both public and private sector. Income increases will affect both demand and production costs, adding more fuel to the inflation fire...

In Defense of Plant Based Meat

My Letter to the Editor

Reno Gazette Journal

January 12, 2022

"No Future in Manufactured Meat" by Jim Hightower (RGJ 1/2/22) will be one of the most erroneous editorial opinions this year. The article is peppered with scientific jargon to scare the reader about substances in plant-based meat. But these substances can be found in many foods consumed routinely. Hightower states a hyperbolic past cost, but today a 4oz plant-based meat hamburger putty is about $2 at Costco. 

Hightower asks, “who needs a meatless burger?” Everyone who likes meat does! The cattle industry is the number one agricultural source of greenhouse gasses worldwide, a major source of climate change that affects everyone. In June 2020, UC-Davis research estimated that livestock are responsible for 14.5% of global greenhouse gasses. 

Based on a large US-based study by the Harvard School of Public Health, in 2012 the National Institutes of Health informed that red meat is linked to increased risks of diabetes, cardiovascular disease and certain cancers: “one additional serving per day of unprocessed red meat over the course of the study raised the risk of total mortality by 13%”. 

Last month, the White House stated that high meat prices are caused by four monopolists in the US meat-processing controlling 85% of the market: Beef prices in November were up 21% from a year ago and climbing. 

Other benefits of increased substitution of red meat by plant-based meat include the reduction of animal slaughter, the reduction of water and land pollution from massive amounts of animal waste, and reduced handling, transportation and energy consumption because plant-based products are produced closer to the consumer.

Robert Poole: Problems on the Road to All-Electric Transportation

Excellent summary of opportunities, impediments and realistic timelines for surface transportation electrification by Robert W. Poole Jr. of Reason Foundation.

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Over the past few years, I’ve become convinced of the superiority of electric vehicles. Part of this was an exhilarating ride in a friend’s Tesla and more enthusiasm has come via keeping up with technology advances. As electric vehicles (EVs) mature, with next-generation battery systems having much greater range and/or much shorter recharging times, I’ll be happy to trade in my current vehicle for the cleaner, quicker, and less maintenance-intensive EV that is coming.

That said, there are some major problems preventing the emergence of an all-electric personal vehicle fleet. (I’ll discuss all-electric trucks on another occasion). As a starting point, I recommend renowned energy analyst Daniel Yergin’s recent piece in Politico Magazine, “The Major Problems Blocking America’s Electric Car Future.” His article discusses supply chain transformation, modernization and expansion of the electricity grid, and public acceptance of very different vehicles. Another good introduction is former U.S. Department of Transportation (DOT) research and technology advisor Steven Polzin’s Q&A session at Arizona State University.

Here is my brief overview of the problems the industry and government must address to get beyond idealistic projections of no more fossil-fuel vehicles sold beyond 2030 and a completely carbon-free electricity sector by 2035.

Enough electric generating capacity

Most attempts to quantify a complete phase-out of fossil fuel electricity generation by 2035 take the objective to be replacing the current 4.13 terawatt-hours generated in 2019. Reason science editor Ron Bailey earlier this year wrote a good summary of the Energy Information Administration’s estimates of what this would take. For example, it would take 290 new nuclear power plants to replace the 62% of current electricity generated by coal and natural gas, at an estimated cost of $3.6 trillion—and in just 15 years. Alternatively, aiming to get 90% there via wind and solar (with some natural gas backup) was estimated by a University of California—Berkeley Center for Environmental Public Policy study to cost $1.7 trillion.

But that is just to replace current electricity uses. If even 60% of all US cars were electric vehicles by 2050, the nation’s electricity capacity would need to double by that date, according to the January 2021 electrification futures study by the National Renewable Energy Laboratory. Reuters’ Nichola Groom and Tina Bellon provided a good summary of this challenge in “EV Rollout Will Require Huge Investments in Strained U.S. Power Grids.” I will venture to say that neither replacement of all existing electricity capacity by 2035 nor doubling its current capacity by 2050 will happen.

Battery problems

News articles regularly appear about the limitations of current electric vehicle batteries. They don’t provide enough range for trips beyond urban travel. They take far longer to charge than refilling a conventional car’s gas tank (which is why nearly all of today’s gas stations lack the room to serve more than a handful of EV charging customers per hour). The current lithium batteries cost way too much (which is why EVs cost far more than a conventional car of the same size), they can catch fire and explode, and they require a number of rare and expensive metals, whose sources are mostly in either China or underdeveloped countries. The good news is there’s a fortune being invested in new kinds of vehicle batteries, but no one can predict how soon and how much better the next generation of EV batteries will be.

Far more (and much faster) EV charging

The “more” problem is one focus of the Biden administration’s environmental agenda, focusing mostly on subsidies for electric vehicle charging stations. If successful, this risks putting lots of new capacity in place before there is enough demand for it, but leave that aside. The administration and the Senate have shown no interest in changing federal law to allow EV charging facilities on rural Interstate highway rest areas, unlike the House, whose Fixing America’s Surface Transportation (FAST) Act reauthorization bill includes such a provision. An informal business/environmental coalition is trying to build support for including this provision in one of the pending infrastructure bills, but the White House and DOT have remained silent on this.

Faster EV charging is being developed by researchers and battery companies (established and startups), but even cutting it from 45 minutes to 15 still means much longer waits for customers and far more acreage needed due to durations several times longer than at gas pumps. This will be a much bigger problem for long-distance car and truck trips than for urban travel, where much EV charging can take place overnight at home, or at workplaces.

Environmental opposition

Experts know that the kind of electrical transformation desired by the Biden administration and (in theory) by nearly all environmental groups will require a huge investment in new long-distance electricity transmission lines, huge areas to locate a vast expansion of solar panels and windmills, and a very large expansion of mining rare-earth minerals, such as lithium and others. Yet as these efforts are starting to get underway, we see various environmental groups, often allied with local NIMBYs, seeking to block new transmission lines, large-scale solar arrays even in deserts, a major expansion of wind power installations, and domestic attempts to start mining lithium and other rare earths. Since this is a surface transportation newsletter, let me just say that there are numerous examples and they are taking place with increasing frequency. The major environmental groups need to start speaking out against this kind of opposition if we are to take their commitment to widespread electrification seriously. And the Biden administration needs to reform the National Environmental Policy Act (NEPA) to reduce endless opportunities for litigation that seeks to block just about every kind of new infrastructure project.

For all these reasons, I have to be skeptical about grandiose electrification goals for 2030, 2035, or even 2050. And if achieving those goals will actually take a lot longer, we need to think through what is actually possible, let alone cost-effective. A completely EV America will require a much larger electricity sector.

Honolulu Rail Critic Pushes for Middle Street Endpoint

"Longtime Honolulu rail critic Panos Prevedouros advocated that the project should hit pause, finish the line to Middle Street and the route should be reassessed. A city councilmember introduced a resolution this week with a similar stance.

A vocal critic of the Honolulu rail project, UH Manoa civil engineering professor Panos Prevedouros has never held back on his opinion of the decision to build the mass transit system.

"I'm totally exhausted about the inability of our decision-makers to do the right thing, after all the proof they have in front of them," he said. "These are crazy numbers by any standard of infrastructure project delivery."

I said so on May 11, 2021 in an interview with Hawaii Public Radio. 

Then on August 3 came devastating confirmation from a respected FTA agent. The retired FTA director, who evaluated every rail project for 30 years, said:

“The Honolulu project is way beyond anything that I’ve observed….I’m shocked. … Whenever I see the costs going up, I’m personally flabbergasted. It is way beyond and unmatched by anything that I have observed. Of the projects we’ve done in the last few decades, there’s nothing that even approaches that cost overrun. It’s extra­ordinary by any measure…. Because the shortfall’s so dramatic, there are questions about where should we stop the project… this project can no longer proceed."

More details of his opinion were published on August 9:

"One former, longtime FTA official who helped launch Honolulu rail more than a decade ago said the dramatic cost overruns that have plagued the project ever since construction started are worse than anything he’s seen. 

“I’ve never seen anything close,” Ron Fisher, former director of the FTA Office of Project Planning, said of rail’s persistent and growing budget woes."

Fisher, meanwhile, said that rail is in an unusual situation among the nation’s transit projects because it’s woefully short on cash and essentially has been pushed back into a planning phase. 

Local transportation officials should pause the project, he said, in order to study different endpoints to the line as well as their impacts to ridership, rail operations and the surrounding environment. 

That study of the various costs and benefits of stopping at different places should involve credible experts, and it should include legitimate public input and participation, Fisher added."

Is Hawaii Becoming a Perfect Contradiction?

 

1. The state depends on tourism but cannot guarantee covid regulations for conventions in 2022.
2. An island state without ferries but more than enough "environmentalists" that killed the Superferry.
3. A state with the best astronomy in the world, but with enough cultural opposers that killed the 30 Meter Telescope.
4. A place where people have multiple jobs and things to do that they cannot carpool two or three at a time, but will take a train 500 at a time.
5. A place where politicians such as Ige and Caldwell do not deserve one term, but were voted into top office twice.
6. A state with a button pusher who drove us all nuts, and still kept his state job.
7. The state with the most workers per capita, but 15 months after the lockdown does not have nearly enough workers to clear the unemployment benefits backlog.
8. The Aloha State takes care of ohana, but has the most homeless per capita.
9. A state with modest incomes and high cost of (basic) living has exorbitant housing costs and a high preference for private K-12 education at $20,000 or more per year!
10. A state having among the highest taxation delivers among the worst public K-12 education in the US.
11. A state that has a waste to energy plant that makes electricity, but prefers to ship recycled paper waste 2,000 miles away.
12. A state that has no connection to external electric grids for help, but focuses on unreliable intermittent energy for baseload power supply.
13. A state with a rich volcanic reservoir enough to solve its energy problem, but hates geothermal energy development (New Zealand has a profit sharing scheme for use of culturally sensitive geothermal energy for the benefit of the indigenous Maori.)
14. A state that has an 85% dependency on imported food, but converts prime agricultural lands such as Koa Ridge and Aloun Farms to cookie cutter suburban subdivisions (that are primarily car dependent too.)

Job Market for Civil Engineers in 2021

 Featured on Zippia's Future of the Job Market Report

Irrational Covid Vaccine Fears

Excerpts from an article titled Irrational Covid Fears by David Leonhardt, of The NYT

Guido Calabresi, a federal judge and Yale law professor, invented a little fable that he has been telling law students for more than three decades.

He tells the students to imagine a god coming forth to offer society a wondrous invention that would improve everyday life in almost every way. It would allow people to spend more time with friends and family, see new places and do jobs they otherwise could not do. But it would also come with a high cost. In exchange for bestowing this invention on society, the god would choose 1,000 young men and women and strike them dead.

Calabresi then asks: Would you take the deal? Almost invariably, the students say no. The professor then delivers the fable’s lesson: “What’s the difference between this and the automobile?”

In truth, automobiles kill many more than 1,000 young Americans each year; the total U.S. death toll hovers at about 40,000 annually. We accept this toll, almost unthinkingly, because vehicle crashes have always been part of our lives. We can’t fathom a world without them.

It’s a classic example of human irrationality about risk. We often underestimate large, chronic dangers, like car crashes or chemical pollution, and fixate on tiny but salient risks, like plane crashes or shark attacks. [Or thrombosis from a vaccine.]

The vaccines have nearly eliminated death, hospitalization and other serious Covid illness among people who have received shots. The vaccines have also radically reduced the chances that people contract even a mild version of Covid or can pass it on to others.

Yet many vaccinated people continue to obsess over the risks from Covid — because they are so new and salient.

To take just one example, major media outlets trumpeted new government data last week showing that 5,800 fully vaccinated Americans had contracted Covid. That may sound like a big number, but it indicates that a vaccinated person’s chances of getting Covid are about one in 11,000. The chances of a getting a version any worse than a common cold are even more remote.

But they are not zero. And they will not be zero anytime in the foreseeable future. Victory over Covid will not involve its elimination. Victory will instead mean turning it into the sort of danger that plane crashes or shark attacks present — too small to be worth reordering our lives.

That is what the vaccines do. If you’re vaccinated, Covid presents a minuscule risk to you, and you present a minuscule Covid risk to anyone else. A car trip is a bigger threat, to you and others. About 100 Americans are likely to die in car crashes today. The new federal data suggests that either zero or one vaccinated person will die today from Covid.

Finally an Article that Describes Me Well: Why Some People Are Willing to Challenge Wrongs

"The traits of a moral rebel

First, moral rebels generally feel good about themselves. They tend to have high self-esteem and to feel confident about their own judgment, values and ability. They also believe their own views are superior to those of others, and thus that they have a social responsibility to share those beliefs.

Moral rebels are also less socially inhibited than others. They aren’t worried about feeling embarrassed or having an awkward interaction. Perhaps most importantly, they are far less concerned about conforming to the crowd. So, when they have to choose between fitting in and doing the right thing, they will probably choose to do what they see as right."

That's right!

SOURCE:  Analysis: Why some people are willing to challenge behavior they see as wrong despite personal risk

Urban Transit After COVID-19

 Excellent input by transportation experts Robert Poole and Steve Polzin.

==============

Urban Transit After COVID-19

Here is a recent set of headlines from a couple of reputable sources, to introduce a discussion of how urban transit will need to change when we enter the post-pandemic period:

• “Remote Work Is Here to Stay. Manhattan May Never Be the Same,” Matthew Haag, The New York Times, March 29, 2021
• “If Rush Hour Dies, Does Mass Transit Die with It?” Henry Grabar, Slate, Feb. 11, 2021
• “Riders Are Abandoning Buses and Trains. That’s a Problem for Climate Change,” Somini Sengupta, et al., The New York Times, March 25, 2021

The reporters of these stories reflect genuine concerns, but my impression is that many in the transportation community have not fully thought through the implications for urban transit in the “after” COVID-19 times.

One expert who has is Steve Polzin, a former transit official, university professor, and most recently as a senior advisor for research and technology at the U.S. Department of Transportation. After reading a detailed paper that he and a colleague produced while at DOT last fall, Reason Foundation commissioned Polzin to write a policy brief focusing specifically on how transit will have to change, and why. The new report, “Public Transportation Must Change after COVID-19,” was published last week and you can find it here.

Polzin first reminds us that in the five years prior to the coronavirus pandemic, transit experienced a significant loss of ridership, before appearing to stabilize at a lower level by 2019. Then the pandemic led to former transit riders avoiding buses and rail transit in favor of cars, bikes, walking, and working at home. Comparing January 2020 (pre-pandemic) with January 2021, unlinked transit trips were 65% less (though transit vehicle miles of service decreased only 23% for the same months).

Alas for those hoping for a post-pandemic return to “normal,” among the factors leading to permanent changes are, of course, some degree of permanent shifts to working from home, either part-time or full-time, along with the continued popularity of network companies like Lyft and Uber, a millennial generation that is getting older and buying houses in the suburbs, and a general movement of people and companies from higher-density to lower-density locations.

Polzin points out that even if many people work at home Mondays and Fridays, but still work in the office mid-week, this will “make it harder to justify peak capacity capital investments and complicate service scheduling.” In terms of permanent work-at-home shifts, he notes that if this share doubles from pre-pandemic levels of 5.7% to about 12% of people working from home, that could mean 15%-to-20% fewer downtown workers, a major change for downtown-focused rail transit systems.

Another section of the brief looks at declining vehicle occupancy by transit mode: bus, light rail, heavy rail, and commuter rail. All four are down significantly, but some much more than others. And this makes a surprising difference in the environmental friendliness of these modes. Here is his comparison of pre-pandemic vs. December 2020 fuel economy of various commuter modes, drawn from the U.S. Department of Energy Alternative Fuels Data Center plus estimated occupancies from the National Transit Database. The metric is passenger miles per gasoline gallons equivalent; hence the highest numbers are best.

Commuting Mode	Pre-COVID	Current
Heavy rail	50.4	18.0
Automobiles	41.7	41.7*
Commuter rail	39.6	10.9
Light trucks/SUVs	36.1	36.1*
Transit bus	26.6	14.5
Demand response (Uber, Lyft)	9.2	9.2*

*assumed to be unchanged

As of December 2020, the most fuel-efficient means of commuting was the car, followed by light trucks—but only because occupancy embedded in the transit calculations was so drastically low. Obviously, when we get past the pandemic those figures should rise but whether mass transit will be able to rebuild enough ridership to be more fuel-efficient (and hence more carbon-friendly) remains to be seen, and as you can see from the current numbers, transit has a long way to go.

A major premise of the Biden administration’s transportation agenda is to greatly increase federal spending on transit, compared with only modest, constrained increases for highways (with very little scope for adding highway capacity). This approach poses major risks of putting billions of taxpayer dollars into projects that will have costs far greater than their benefits (e.g., light rail systems for medium-sized cities, megaproject expansions of heavy rail and commuter rail systems, etc.).

At the very least, it is premature at this juncture to commit funding for major new rail transit projects before we have some idea of the extent of transit ridership in the first several years after nationwide vaccinations.

Inspections Discover Cracks in Rail Line Tracks

 Rick Daysog: Inspections discover cracks in rail line tracks. Also mirrored at Full Court Press with Greta Van Susteren.

HONOLULU, Hawaii (HawaiiNewsNow) - During a recent inspection, rail officials discovered cracks in several crossover tracks along the line that could cause further delays for the embattled project.

According to Honolulu Authority for Rapid Transportation documents, the manufacturer of the crossovers ― called frogs ― was responsible for the casting flaws.

Recent inspections also found that some of the welds and surfaces on other parts of the tracks didn’t meet the specifications set under contract.

“Before we have an operating system, we have cracks and failures,” said rail critic and University of Hawaii Civil and Environmental Engineering Prof. Panos Prevedouros.

“That is really extremely disappointing. I don’t now how else to describe it. ... We’ve been had.”

Prevedouros said the rail system’s steel-on-steel technology was supposed to last for decades but can’t even last several hundred practice runs without cracking.

“We selected rail because supposedly it was bullet proof,” he said. “You build it out of steel and you’re done.”

How long the project is delayed will depend on how many of the cracked frogs need to be replaced and how long it takes to manufacture and install them.

Hawaii News Now asked HART spokesman Joey Manahan how many of these devices are damaged and how much of a delay replacing them will cause.

He declined to answer, saying that the rail authority planned to respond at its board meeting Thursday.

Prevedouros believes the initial opening of service between Kapolei and Aloha Stadium, which was scheduled for June, will now be delayed several months because HART won’t be able test their trains at normal speeds and under normal conditions.

HART Rail Cost Grows Past $12 Billion

 In January 2016, I projected that the cost to complete HART's rail will be $11 Billion (stated by HART as $6.9B at that time). Once again, that was the good news.

It's pretty clear that the people in charge need to do something about destroying the city's and state's finances while pursuing a largely useless, outdated and very expensive to run transportation "alternative."

We have great alternatives already... TheBus, Uber, Zoom, bikeways and soon enough, robotaxis. Plus people leaving Hawaii by the thousands

Why is My Car Insurance So High

 Quoted in this article on Why is My Car Insurance So High.

What steps can drivers take to get cheaper car insurance?

"Drivers need to do some comparative shopping for insurance rates every couple of years.

If they are considering purchasing another vehicle, they should investigate the insurance ratings and costs of their candidate vehicles and choose wisely; rates for vehicles in the same price range vary because of their varied repair costs, safety features and performance levels.

If the driver has a problematic traffic record, then he or she must consult with their DMV and insurance to go through re-education or other programs in order to lessen their risk score.

Other relevant decisions that affect insurance rates include location and distance driven. Some locations are much riskier than others (drivers who rent may have more flexibility to move to a safer area near by). Long commutes often correspond to higher annual premiums, so work or housing decisions affect vehicle operating costs including insurance."

Car Insurance for High Risk Drivers.

Quoted by WalletHub on Car Insurance for High Risk Drivers.

Their slight editing made one of my comments non sensical..."such as the passing of a divided highway" should be ... such as passing on a divided highway.

What can high-risk drivers do to lower their car insurance?

They can do several things starting with re-reviewing the rules of the road and pledging to adhere to the rules. Besides, they can attend safe driving classes and, if available, simulation lessons that help realize the risk of crashes in a controlled environment.

What makes a driver high risk?

The typical ingredients of high-risk driving are inattention, aggression, distraction, and intoxication. These apply to drivers of both genders and all ages. Typically younger, male drivers are more susceptible to speeding and high-risk maneuvers such as the passing of a divided highway and aggressive cornering.

What can drivers do to become not a high-risk driver?

Drivers need to continually work on their safe driving habits such as never driving intoxicated, devoting full attention to the driving task, and leaving speeding and aggressive maneuvering for the racetrack (i.e., track days and exotic car venues.)