Monday, August 12, 2013
Friday, August 9, 2013
Electric Vehicles Are Here to Stay. In Moderate Numbers.
The MIT Review titles the infographic below: Electric Vehicles are Here to Stay.
Yes, but the case for them is not particularly strong and their market penetration will be small for a very long time, for two big reasons. One is EV's marginal environmental benefit. The infographic clearly shows that the big improvement comes when a gasoline-powered vehicle is converted to hybrid: Its emissions drop from 0.87 pounds of CO2 per mile to 0.57 pounds per mile. All the fuss to get to EV cuts CO2 down only to 0.54 pounds per mile (and probably leaves a much bigger problem with battery recycling at the end.) In addition this estimate does not likely account for all the charging infrastructure that is being installed from scratch.
The second reason is the affordable price of fuel, gasoline in particular. It will be priced at around $4 per gallon for a long time thanks to major forces that work against major price increases, such as:
Yes, but the case for them is not particularly strong and their market penetration will be small for a very long time, for two big reasons. One is EV's marginal environmental benefit. The infographic clearly shows that the big improvement comes when a gasoline-powered vehicle is converted to hybrid: Its emissions drop from 0.87 pounds of CO2 per mile to 0.57 pounds per mile. All the fuss to get to EV cuts CO2 down only to 0.54 pounds per mile (and probably leaves a much bigger problem with battery recycling at the end.) In addition this estimate does not likely account for all the charging infrastructure that is being installed from scratch.
The second reason is the affordable price of fuel, gasoline in particular. It will be priced at around $4 per gallon for a long time thanks to major forces that work against major price increases, such as:
- Hydraulic fracturing of fracking for natural gas extraction, which curbs the demand for oil by vast amounts. (In 2000 fracking yielded 1% of the natural gas production in the US. In 2010 it yielded 20% of the production. A breakneck acceleration in such a capital intensive industry thanks to my fellow Greek and father of fracking George Phydias Mitchell.)
- Sustained oil prices in the $50 to $100 per barrel make expensive explorations affordable, so a healthy supply of oil will be available to satiate the increasing demands of the developing world.
- Substantially decreased demand for gasoline due to the popularity of high mpg vehicles (CAFE requirements and sales success of hybrids and plug-in hybrids; can't buy a Hummer anymore.)
- Less travel due to persistent high unemployment and mega economic downers such as debt, deficit, bankrupt cities and countries, and looming pension and health care social costs in the US.
- Continued public and private investment in renewable sources of energy.
Friday, August 2, 2013
Light-Rail to Nowhere: Honolulu, Hawaii's Train Boondoggle
The Reason Foundation provides succinct coverage of Honolulu rail. It is, of course, about politics, development and money. Lots of money. Only the gullible and the railigious believe that heavy rail from the middle of ag land to a shopping center will have any traffic relief.
Panos Prevedouros, one of the state's leading transportation experts, says the rail plan that the feds approved will siphon off state funding for the area's bus system. The project's own report, which Prevedouros says is filled with overly optimistic estimates of rail ridership, still shows that Honolulu's congestion will be worse in the future with rail. “The point of doing any cost effectiveness type of analysis is out of the window,” says Panos, “the benefits are not there.”
The Ninth Circuit Court of Appeals has ordered an expedited hearing for the federal rail lawsuit on August 15th.
Watch the well-made 8 minute video by Sharif Matar.
Wednesday, July 17, 2013
Honolulu 1990 to 2010 Trends: What Do They Mean for the Next 20 Years?
Important trends for Honolulu and Hawaii over the past 20 years and what this means for the next 20 years is explained in this installment of my O'lelo show PANOS 2050: Solutions for a Sustainable Hawaii.
This subject was also covered earlier this year: Hawaii Over The Past 20 Years: Minimal Change, Minimal Growth. What Should Hawaii Plan For?
This subject was also covered earlier this year: Hawaii Over The Past 20 Years: Minimal Change, Minimal Growth. What Should Hawaii Plan For?
Saturday, July 13, 2013
A Terrible Week for Rail
Paris, France
French Wreck Reveals Hidden Danger in Its Vaunted Train System
Washington, DC, USA
Obama Administration Puts Brakes on XpressWest High-Speed Rail Project
This is the California-Nevada High Speed Rail proposal.
Honolulu, HI, USA
Federal Judge slaps HART hard by revealing profound contradictions and stupidity. Excerpts from Judge Mollway's letter to HART below.
"On behalf of the United States District Court for the District of Hawaii, I submit that the Draft Supplemental EIS fails to give adequate consideration to the Beretania Street Tunnel Alternative.
Remarkably, the Project's proposed rail route fails to run along "the highly
congested east-west transportation corridor between Kapolei and UH Manoa," the very
corridor expressly identified as the route the Project is intended to serve.
The EIS unrealistically posits that a UH student, after riding the rail to Ala Moana, can transfer to a bus to get to the UH campus and, even including the time spent getting to the bus boarding area and waiting for the bus, arrive within 9 minutes.
North American urban transit security (July 11 headlines)
French Wreck Reveals Hidden Danger in Its Vaunted Train System
Washington, DC, USA
Obama Administration Puts Brakes on XpressWest High-Speed Rail Project
This is the California-Nevada High Speed Rail proposal.
Honolulu, HI, USA
Federal Judge slaps HART hard by revealing profound contradictions and stupidity. Excerpts from Judge Mollway's letter to HART below.
"On behalf of the United States District Court for the District of Hawaii, I submit that the Draft Supplemental EIS fails to give adequate consideration to the Beretania Street Tunnel Alternative.
Remarkably, the Project's proposed rail route fails to run along "the highly
congested east-west transportation corridor between Kapolei and UH Manoa," the very
corridor expressly identified as the route the Project is intended to serve.
The EIS unrealistically posits that a UH student, after riding the rail to Ala Moana, can transfer to a bus to get to the UH campus and, even including the time spent getting to the bus boarding area and waiting for the bus, arrive within 9 minutes.
- Waianae to UH Manoa via Beretania Street Tunnel: 84 minutes
- Current Route of the Project: 93 minutes"
- Waianae to UH Manoa via Beretania Street Tunnel: 84 minutes
- Current Route of the Project: 100 minutes
North American urban transit security (July 11 headlines)
|
ON: All GO Transit Riders Rescued From Flooded Train: Toronto Police
Hundreds of passengers that were stranded on a flooded GO Transit rush-hour train following heavy rain have been rescued, Toronto police said early Tuesday morning. |
|
Monday, July 1, 2013
Brief Insight on the Kakaako Development and Honolulu's Trifecta of Failures
Up to 5,000 new apartment and condominium units are being planned by the HCDA in Kakaako, Honolulu. This section of Honolulu is already the most traveled and congested. What would be the likely impact of such concentrated, high density development?
In the field of transportation planning and engineering we rely on the Trip Generation Manual produced by the Institute of Transportation Engineers headquartered in Washington, D.C. I have the 8th edition issued in 2008.
It says that High Rise Apartments (land use 222) generate 0.30 trips per unit during the peak hour between 7 and 9 AM. The peak period in Kaka'ako is roughly the same. Of these trips, 75% are outbound (leaving the building) and 25% are inbound. Given that Kakaako is at a location near the center of the city and Waikiki, quite a few of these trips will be on foot, bike or bus. So instead of assuming that 90%-95% of the trips will be by auto, let's assume that 80% of the trips will be by auto.
If 5,000 new units were occupied in Kaka'ako "tomorrow", then there would be:
5,000 x 0.30 x 0.75 x 0.80 = 900 new vehicle trips during the morning peak hour
If we stack all of them on Kapiolani Blvd., this estimate means that an exclusive new lane would be needed just to maintain similar congestion conditions as now. But there is no room for lane additions so the traffic impact will be immense.
This is similar to the situation prevailing today: Because of sewer work, contraflow on Kapiolani Blvd. was not in effect until past McCully St. (town-bound from Kaimuki) so it took me three cycles to go past the Kapiolani/Date traffic light. Over five minutes to traverse one major intersection!
As I have frequently mentioned, Honolulu is the most lane deficient city of about one million people in the US (per capita, it is worse than LA, Chicago, etc.) Adding more density will cause the central road network to seize. It already does when there is major rainfall or a couple of typically uncoordinated lane closures on major streets.
The "Establishment" supported and thrived with the quick profiteering from the Second City. Second City profit-making has subsided due to the lack of road capacity and it will collapse with the mess of 10+ years of rail construction due to lane closures. After destroying the Ewa Plains, and causing major infrastructure liabilities, now it is time for the Establishment to come back and densify Kakaako and Kalihi.
A dense urban ribbon between Waikiki and the airport should have been the original plan instead of the Second City 22 miles away from Waikiki. That plan should have come with high rises, urban underpasses, large underground parking, and possibly a 10-mile underground metro from Waikiki to Airport and perhaps to Aloha Stadium. The plan should have had new utility lines installed in secondary streets such as Waimanu Rd. and Queen St. instead of under major arterial streets such as Ala Moana and Kapiolani Boulevards.
If you recall, since 1995 Kapiolani Blvd. has been a continuous construction zone. Now Ala Moana Blvd. is another work zone. As long as main utilities are under them, labe closures will never stop and pavement will be a patchwork.
With the
- Second City/Ewa Development Plan,
- The Rail and,
- The HCDA/Kakaako Development
- Sewer EPA consent decree
- One water main break a day
- The worst pavement condition in the last 30 years
- Public employee pension unfunded liability
- Public employee health coverage unfunded liability
Friday, June 28, 2013
More Intelligent Technology. Fewer Jobs.
The MIT Review article How Technology Is Destroying Jobs summarizes the potential on-set of the Human Labor-free Economy. Others call it the Autonomous Economy; an economy that runs without people!
This is of course an exaggeration but the fact is that since people invented tools many laborious tasks became simpler. Then the industrial revolution accelerated the pace of machine substitution of the labor. However, the big and varied tools and machines wound up increasing the demand of human labor because they changed the scale of what is achievable in agriculture, infrastructure, war equipment, etc.
Then came IT, computers and robotics. The MIT Review graph below illustrates the decoupling between Economic Productivity and Employed Labor. Automated vehicle manufacturing plants, automated warehouses, automated luggage handlers, etc. are already present. Currently at some health providers the first level diagnosis of patient ailment is conducted by registered nurses who also have some prescription authority. A large number of patients do not see an MD.
The short term outcome was angrily revealed by the Occupy Wall Street movement nearly two years ago: The MIT Review a notes that big progress in technology grows the economy and creates wealth, “but there is no economic law that says everyone will benefit. In other words, in the race against the machine, some are likely to win while many others lose.” Income inequality is a well researched topic.
However, this analysis on the effects of technology on labor is only the beginning. The hundreds of thoughtful comments below the article are enlightening and perhaps frightening.
If the means are found to control social instability, accelerating substitution is not sustainable unless regional Uber Governments are formed that control all the machines and humans on a continental scale. The central authority will regulate human birth rate, goods consumption and life duration, to keep a balance. Not surprisingly national and local policies for such control of human activity already exist.
One of the long term effects of unemployment (and draconian controls) is lower birth rate. This puts the Earth on a more sustainable path because the current path of population growth and consumption is clearly unsustainable.
There is also some likelihood that an electromagnetic pulse or an IT superbug will render this interconnected IT and automation useless. At that point, the remaining third world populations will have a distinct advantage.
The most likely short term outcome is that the recently observed trend of accelerating income disparity and unemployment will continue. The regulation of automation may follow to control unemployment and social instability.
The long term outcome has been postulated by MIT researchers since the early 1970s: For many reasons such as technological substitution, energy availability and cost, climate change combined with food production for an ever increasing population will produce a vast global imbalance. As a result, around 2030 they predicted, there will be a global reduction of the standard of living and population.
This is of course an exaggeration but the fact is that since people invented tools many laborious tasks became simpler. Then the industrial revolution accelerated the pace of machine substitution of the labor. However, the big and varied tools and machines wound up increasing the demand of human labor because they changed the scale of what is achievable in agriculture, infrastructure, war equipment, etc.
Then came IT, computers and robotics. The MIT Review graph below illustrates the decoupling between Economic Productivity and Employed Labor. Automated vehicle manufacturing plants, automated warehouses, automated luggage handlers, etc. are already present. Currently at some health providers the first level diagnosis of patient ailment is conducted by registered nurses who also have some prescription authority. A large number of patients do not see an MD.
The short term outcome was angrily revealed by the Occupy Wall Street movement nearly two years ago: The MIT Review a notes that big progress in technology grows the economy and creates wealth, “but there is no economic law that says everyone will benefit. In other words, in the race against the machine, some are likely to win while many others lose.” Income inequality is a well researched topic.
However, this analysis on the effects of technology on labor is only the beginning. The hundreds of thoughtful comments below the article are enlightening and perhaps frightening.
- In the future, people may be “chipped” like animals. As a result there will be no need for laborious ID inspections at airports and elsewhere. There will be much less need for credit cards or buying tickets for transit, theater and museum admission, etc. The individual’s presence is enough to trigger a charge which minimizes the need for conductors, inspectors and clerks.
- Autonomous cars are here and they drive in actual traffic. They will take several more years to perfect but eventually there may be no need for taxi drivers, bus drivers and trash collectors.
- Mail, if there is paper mail 50 years from now, can be fully robotized. The central processing at major handlers such as USPS, FedEx and UPS is already automated.
- Distance learning is quickly becoming ubiquitous. The number of college courses is finite. A few thousand of the "best professors” in each subject may tape the lecture and offer real time updates thus reducing the need for tens of thousands of in-class lecturers and professors.
If the means are found to control social instability, accelerating substitution is not sustainable unless regional Uber Governments are formed that control all the machines and humans on a continental scale. The central authority will regulate human birth rate, goods consumption and life duration, to keep a balance. Not surprisingly national and local policies for such control of human activity already exist.
One of the long term effects of unemployment (and draconian controls) is lower birth rate. This puts the Earth on a more sustainable path because the current path of population growth and consumption is clearly unsustainable.
There is also some likelihood that an electromagnetic pulse or an IT superbug will render this interconnected IT and automation useless. At that point, the remaining third world populations will have a distinct advantage.
The most likely short term outcome is that the recently observed trend of accelerating income disparity and unemployment will continue. The regulation of automation may follow to control unemployment and social instability.
The long term outcome has been postulated by MIT researchers since the early 1970s: For many reasons such as technological substitution, energy availability and cost, climate change combined with food production for an ever increasing population will produce a vast global imbalance. As a result, around 2030 they predicted, there will be a global reduction of the standard of living and population.
Monday, June 17, 2013
Wednesday, June 12, 2013
Flyover Traffic Rings
One in Athens, Greece connects two arteries to a freeway (Attica Tollway, top.)
The other in Shanghai, China removes pedestrians from a complex 5-approach roundabout (bottom.)
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The other in Shanghai, China removes pedestrians from a complex 5-approach roundabout (bottom.)
11624.jpg)
Circuit of the Americas: Racing to the Finish
"When in 2010 the city of Austin, Texas, was awarded the United States Grand Prix for 10 years, plans to construct the Formula 1 racetrack there, the Circuit of the Americas, quickly got under way, and an unlikely midsize civil engineering and surveying firm was awarded the civil engineering design contract."
This is a fascinating story of infrastructure development for a top flight world sporting event. Read this open article starting on page 64 of the Civil Engineering Magazine, May 2013 issue, of the American Society of Civil Engineers: Racing to the Finish.
Friday, June 7, 2013
Tesla Is Reinventing the Industrial and Infrastructure Process
Tesla is not only reinventing the car... They are reinventing applied science, industrial product development and infrastructure planning.
At Toyota "we get a lot of standards and specifications, then we build a prototype and test it. At Tesla they get the standards and specifications set, and then change it on the fly. They spend more time in the validation phase. We spend more time in up-front planning.”
Typically we plan and design infrastructure (e.g., energy and transportation systems) too much. But rarely we go back and validate whether systems really worked as intended...
Unofficial assessments:
At Toyota "we get a lot of standards and specifications, then we build a prototype and test it. At Tesla they get the standards and specifications set, and then change it on the fly. They spend more time in the validation phase. We spend more time in up-front planning.”
Typically we plan and design infrastructure (e.g., energy and transportation systems) too much. But rarely we go back and validate whether systems really worked as intended...
Unofficial assessments:
- Did the H-3 Freeway meet its traffic target? It exceeded it.
- Did the Kal. Hwy widening relieve Hawaii Kai to Kahala trip times? Travel times were reduced by over ~25%.
- Do modern (built after 1995) light and heavy rail systems in any city in the US meet or exceed their planned ridership that justified their construction, after 5 or10 years in operation?
- Nine out of 10 failed to do this. Several of them spectacularly. The largest US failure (after Tren Urbano in Puerto Rico) will be Honolulu.
Wednesday, June 5, 2013
No Jones Act Relief for Hawaii in 2013
May 22: 17 Prominent Hawaii economists, business leaders, and professors ask Congress to Repeal 1920s Law Preventing Foreign Competition in Shipping.
May 28: Should Hawaii Be Exempted From The Jones Act? Lawsuit Says Yes
May 30: Court Says No -- U.S. District Court in Hawaii dismisses lawsuit challenging applicability of Jones Act in Hawaii
June 5: It will take a few more years but some relaxation of Jones Act requirements for Alaska, Hawaii and Guam is inevitable.
May 28: Should Hawaii Be Exempted From The Jones Act? Lawsuit Says Yes
May 30: Court Says No -- U.S. District Court in Hawaii dismisses lawsuit challenging applicability of Jones Act in Hawaii
June 5: It will take a few more years but some relaxation of Jones Act requirements for Alaska, Hawaii and Guam is inevitable.
Wednesday, May 29, 2013
City Transport 2020: The Future Can't Come Soon Enough
Here is a sample compilation of technological breakthroughs reported in the second half of May 2013:
CNN: The future of travel: How driverless cars could change everything
The Economist: The future of the car -- Clean, safe and it drives itself
The Economist: How does a self-driving car work?
The Economist: Tesla "General Electric Motors" has high hopes for its high-spec electric cars
Daily Caller: Tesla electrifies the auto market (This week American electric auto manufacturer Tesla Motors (TSLA) broke $100 per share.)
INRIX Expands Real-time Traffic Coverage: US, EU. Traffic conditions in Honolulu at noon on May 29, 2013 compiled as a digital layer that can be used by in-vehicle, broadcasting and other means are shown at the end of this article.
New Geography: Driving Trends in Context
Figure 4: Drive alone, carpool, motorcycle and telecommuting are over 90%.
I foresee an epic battle: Google and the Technologists vs. Sierra Club and the Greenies.
Where are the Planners and Transit in this bright future? They are largely Irrelevant!
Back to now: Sadly greenies, liberal politicians and urban (transit) planners continue to waste a huge portion of public and transportation funds on Smart Growth, Rail Starts and Complete Streets. Like the current Plan Bay Area 2040 plan that allocates 62% of the transportation funding to the 10% mode of transportation.(1)
The new wave of automated urban transportation cannot come soon enough!
---------------
Note (1) Plan Bay Area Report: “The analysis for the most recent regional transportation plan, Transportation 2035, suggested that the region’s transit system is not sustainable based on current projections of transit costs and reasonably anticipated revenues. Transportation 2035 identified a region-wide transit capital deficit of $17 billion and operating budget deficits of $8 billion over the next 25 years.” These are staggering deficits for a transportation mode used by 10% of commuters and less than that by non-commuters. Planners acknowledge that these deficits are not sustainable for the community. Yet Plan Bay Area calls for more deficit-making transit.
CNN: The future of travel: How driverless cars could change everything
The Economist: The future of the car -- Clean, safe and it drives itself
The Economist: How does a self-driving car work?
The Economist: Tesla "General Electric Motors" has high hopes for its high-spec electric cars
Daily Caller: Tesla electrifies the auto market (This week American electric auto manufacturer Tesla Motors (TSLA) broke $100 per share.)
INRIX Expands Real-time Traffic Coverage: US, EU. Traffic conditions in Honolulu at noon on May 29, 2013 compiled as a digital layer that can be used by in-vehicle, broadcasting and other means are shown at the end of this article.
New Geography: Driving Trends in Context
Figure 4: Drive alone, carpool, motorcycle and telecommuting are over 90%.
I foresee an epic battle: Google and the Technologists vs. Sierra Club and the Greenies.
Where are the Planners and Transit in this bright future? They are largely Irrelevant!
Back to now: Sadly greenies, liberal politicians and urban (transit) planners continue to waste a huge portion of public and transportation funds on Smart Growth, Rail Starts and Complete Streets. Like the current Plan Bay Area 2040 plan that allocates 62% of the transportation funding to the 10% mode of transportation.(1)
The new wave of automated urban transportation cannot come soon enough!
---------------
Note (1) Plan Bay Area Report: “The analysis for the most recent regional transportation plan, Transportation 2035, suggested that the region’s transit system is not sustainable based on current projections of transit costs and reasonably anticipated revenues. Transportation 2035 identified a region-wide transit capital deficit of $17 billion and operating budget deficits of $8 billion over the next 25 years.” These are staggering deficits for a transportation mode used by 10% of commuters and less than that by non-commuters. Planners acknowledge that these deficits are not sustainable for the community. Yet Plan Bay Area calls for more deficit-making transit.
Honolulu Recycling Guide
The proper way to recycle household solid wastes in Honolulu is explained in this installment of my O'lelo show PANOS 2050: Solutions for a Sustainable Hawaii.
This subject was also covered in a pictorial guide a few months ago in this blog.
This subject was also covered in a pictorial guide a few months ago in this blog.
Wednesday, May 22, 2013
Handicapped Stalls for a StairMaster Trail!
I am sure you've heard the ironic saying "I am from the Government and I am here to help."
Here is proof of "I am from the Government and I am here to waste your tax money."
Koko Head trail is very demanding. "I'm 25 and in decent shape but this hike nearly killed me. It's short but super intense," said Heatherab87 on May 9, 2013.
I hiked it on May 21 and counted 1,115 tall steps. Hardly any hikers on this trail are overweight or over 50, or both (like me.) Many are fitness nuts.
In this case a couple handicapped stalls would be two too many, but ADA code requires six. So six of them with wide access isles were built. For over $100,000 expenditure these stalls are unlikely to see an annual occupancy of 1%.
Monday, May 20, 2013
Chinese Straddle Bus -- Take 2
It appears that the developers of the Air Bus or Chinese Straddle Bus have read some of my concerns with their concept.
The new animation of China TBS Ltd attempts to take care of several of them such as accidents on the road and overhead obstructions that are difficult to remove.
This urban transit options is likely better than light rail and BRT, particularly for large cities with long, straight and wide arterial streets. Developing Asian cities should be a prime market for this concept.
Wednesday, May 1, 2013
Have We "Solved" the US Energy Crisis? Update: No!
In the last couple of weeks I stumbled through some blog articles (e.g., These Charts Better Not Reflect The True State Of The US Economy) that describe an astonishing development: Gasoline consumption has collapsed! (... Not really: See update at the bottom.)
If this is not a hacker's job, we are witnessing momentous changes in the energy field. No wonder that Tesoro-Hawaii cannot find a buyer for its refinery at Campbell Industrial Park for over a year.
Also, the implications for the Highway Trust Fund and State DOTs are enormous. Their funding has been cut in half.
If this pattern is sustained, then all climate initiatives need to be shelved... "2040 targets" are already met!
The following reasons may explain this trend in part. I guestimate that the factors I list below can cause an one third reduction but I am not convinced that they can cause a staggering 54% reduction:
UPDATE: Colleagues on the mainland and I are still investigating this because the data shown above are suspect. This EIA dataset of gas consumption is much flatter. Using these data, the annual consumption differences are as follows:
Better MPG across most light duty vehicles classes, Hybrids, EVs, Cash-for-clankers and a little less driving did cause a drop. An 8% drop is much more believable than a 54% drop. We still do not know if these are "data we can believe in."
- Feb. 1993: 57 million gallons per day
- Feb. 2003: 61 million gallons per day (+7%)
- Feb. 2013: 28 million gallons per day (-54%)
If this is not a hacker's job, we are witnessing momentous changes in the energy field. No wonder that Tesoro-Hawaii cannot find a buyer for its refinery at Campbell Industrial Park for over a year.
Also, the implications for the Highway Trust Fund and State DOTs are enormous. Their funding has been cut in half.
If this pattern is sustained, then all climate initiatives need to be shelved... "2040 targets" are already met!
The following reasons may explain this trend in part. I guestimate that the factors I list below can cause an one third reduction but I am not convinced that they can cause a staggering 54% reduction:
- Gas price: A 10% increase in fuel price may cause a 2% to 5% reduction in trips and/or trip length. High gas prices reduce discretionary trips but do not reduce trips with an important purpose such as work, school, trips to doctor and grocery store, etc.
- Persistently high gas price may lead people to change location; they move closer to work or school and they may replace a low efficiency car with a high efficiency car.
- Unemployment in the US is much higher than officially reported since people who have given up looking for work are no longer counted as unemployed.
- There is some evidence that ties with unemployment that younger Americans drive less.
- Hybrid cars, electric cars and cash-for-clankers cars replaced thousands of low MPG cars so roughly speaking the same thousands of vehicles now consume less than half that their predecessors did.
- HOT lanes (that promote carpooling and provide uncongested travel) and transit may have caused a marginal reduction.
UPDATE: Colleagues on the mainland and I are still investigating this because the data shown above are suspect. This EIA dataset of gas consumption is much flatter. Using these data, the annual consumption differences are as follows:
- 2002 to 2012 = -1.6%
- 2005 to 2012 = -8.2%
Better MPG across most light duty vehicles classes, Hybrids, EVs, Cash-for-clankers and a little less driving did cause a drop. An 8% drop is much more believable than a 54% drop. We still do not know if these are "data we can believe in."
Tuesday, April 30, 2013
Why Aren’t Younger Americans Driving Anymore?
The nation's congestion problem has lessened largely due to youth unemployment and high fuel prices. Read this interesting Washington Post blog for more details.
One has to be careful to not overreact to the sharp change in the trend of miles driven because the graph is population adjusted. It shows the rate of driving per person. The rate is dropping but population is growing, so the next effect is likely a 1% to 5% reduction in traffic, depending on the area.
One has to be careful to not overreact to the sharp change in the trend of miles driven because the graph is population adjusted. It shows the rate of driving per person. The rate is dropping but population is growing, so the next effect is likely a 1% to 5% reduction in traffic, depending on the area.
Monday, April 22, 2013
Do Europeans Use Transit a Lot? Perhaps, but Only in the Central City.
Recently I stumbled on an analysis of commutes in the second largest city in Germany, Hamburg. It's an old and interesting city that I had the chance to visit it in the late 1980s when there were two Germanys, West with capital Bonn, and East with capital (half of) Berlin.
Germany is a country with substantial use of rail both in and between cities. Hamburg is the second largest city in Germany. The county where Hamburg is situated has a population of about 1.8 million and the six surrounding suburban counties have a population of 1.5 million.
Unlike US cities which are characterized by very high (employment) density in the downtown and medium-to-low (population) density in areas surrounding the downtown, Hamburg and most old European cities have high (population and employment) densities over many acres. This makes the development of multiple rail lines meaningful and productive. Their rail lines are compact in length and are supplemented by bus or tram. As a result, transit use is moderate.
Their suburbs have a low use of transit. Let's look at the shares in the image below.
In the city of Hamburg, 33% use car modes, 19% use transit and 38% walk or bike. What's the largest difference between Europe and US. Is it transit use? No! It's Walk and Bike.
Walking and biking to/from work is more than 35% in Europe and less than 5% in the US.
In the suburbs of Hamburg transit drops to 7%. TheBus in Honolulu has a 6% share. Again the main difference is that even in the suburbs Europeans do a lot by walking and biking: 28% compared to less than 2% in US suburbs.
Some dense American cities like Honolulu look a lot like old European city suburbs. Like in Europe, the share of transit in the suburbs is rarely if ever over 10%. Investing on rail transit in suburban Europe or US cities is a poor decision both financially and for transportation productivity.
Germany is a country with substantial use of rail both in and between cities. Hamburg is the second largest city in Germany. The county where Hamburg is situated has a population of about 1.8 million and the six surrounding suburban counties have a population of 1.5 million.
Unlike US cities which are characterized by very high (employment) density in the downtown and medium-to-low (population) density in areas surrounding the downtown, Hamburg and most old European cities have high (population and employment) densities over many acres. This makes the development of multiple rail lines meaningful and productive. Their rail lines are compact in length and are supplemented by bus or tram. As a result, transit use is moderate.
Their suburbs have a low use of transit. Let's look at the shares in the image below.
In the city of Hamburg, 33% use car modes, 19% use transit and 38% walk or bike. What's the largest difference between Europe and US. Is it transit use? No! It's Walk and Bike.
Walking and biking to/from work is more than 35% in Europe and less than 5% in the US.
In the suburbs of Hamburg transit drops to 7%. TheBus in Honolulu has a 6% share. Again the main difference is that even in the suburbs Europeans do a lot by walking and biking: 28% compared to less than 2% in US suburbs.
Some dense American cities like Honolulu look a lot like old European city suburbs. Like in Europe, the share of transit in the suburbs is rarely if ever over 10%. Investing on rail transit in suburban Europe or US cities is a poor decision both financially and for transportation productivity.
Saturday, April 20, 2013
State of the Art Transportation and Other Technology
A conversation with IT guru Peter Kay on my program Panos 2050: Solutions for a Sustainable Hawaii.
Friday, April 12, 2013
Honolulu Officials Praise Ansaldo Rail Deal as Washington Metro Dumps the Cash Strapped Italian Company for Kawasaki
Grabauskas and the HART Board will say anything to excuse the inexcusable decision to buy troubled rail cars from a troubled rail car
company in a troubled country on the other side of the planet, Prevedouros said.
Thursday, April 11, 2013
Sierra Club Used Wrong Population Projections in Support of Honolulu’s Rail
If one wants to keep things simple, then it could be said that the base of Sierra Club's support for rail is simply a case of garbage in, garbage out. In other words, garbage data were used to come to a garbage conclusion. However, I believe that data were sufficiently twisted to support the underlying car-hating philosophy of "environmentalists."
In this case, the bias is clear because supporting rail (to kill auto) causes huge damage to prime agricultural land. The Sierra Club simply cannot have it both ways.
Explanations are provided in my article in the Hawaii Reporter.
In this case, the bias is clear because supporting rail (to kill auto) causes huge damage to prime agricultural land. The Sierra Club simply cannot have it both ways.
Explanations are provided in my article in the Hawaii Reporter.
Wednesday, April 10, 2013
100 Thousand!
The FIXOAHU blog has reached 100,000 all time visits today. That's way more than the readers of my books and scientific articles.
Mahalo, Thank You, Efharisto for reading my opinions from time to time.
Mahalo, Thank You, Efharisto for reading my opinions from time to time.
Monday, April 8, 2013
Panel Discussion on Rail at University of Hawaii-Manoa
- Rail opponents UH Professors Randall Roth (Law) and Panos Prevedouros (Engineering)
- Rail proponents Dan Grabauskas, CEO of HART and Ivan Lui-Kwan, HART Board Member
Here's an independent "post-debate" assessment:
Dr. Prevedouros,
Thank you immensely for your participation in the April 9 rail debate at UH-Manoa. There is no doubt that you and Professor Roth prevailed. You both showed the audience and Daniel Grabauskas and Ivan Lui-Kwan that the case against rail is very powerful.
It would be ideal if the truth about rail could continue to be made known to the public, many of whom voted to approve steel wheels on steel rail without really understanding the downsides of rail. The more people learn the whole truth about rail, the more ready they could become to rise up and demand that the persons responsible for foisting rail on the public be held accountable when it becomes apparent that the billions spent on this scheme have irretrievably gone into a gigantic "black hole." I would hate to see the culprits simply ride off into the sunset.
Again, many thanks for your invaluable efforts to expose the monumental steel wheels blunder.
K. Hirata
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